Russell wilson concussion update

CP3 finally gets to play with LeBron

2023.06.10 04:27 Exact_Window7777 CP3 finally gets to play with LeBron

CP3 finally gets to play with LeBron submitted by Exact_Window7777 to NBAtradeideas [link] [comments]


2023.06.10 03:21 FloridaDad1 My next opponent to make superbowl. They are #1 seed I'm #2 seed.

My next opponent to make superbowl. They are #1 seed I'm #2 seed.
Any advice? My defense is set for more pass defense. My offense is balanced with an edge to passing.
submitted by FloridaDad1 to Football_Head_Coach [link] [comments]


2023.06.10 02:38 LittleCatChase Valuable information continued

"PSYCHIATRISTS LEAD THE WAY
For decades, it has been the job of those within the psychology field to introduce to the American Public the idea that those who believe in God are sick and must be "enlightened" or eliminated, and that "immorality" is the only path to the NEW AGE. And indeed it is. The several quotes below will drive home this well planned scenario.
BERTRAND RUSSELL, philosopher, educator and atheist: "I think the subject which will be of most importance politically is Mass Psychology. ...It's importance has been enormously increased by the growth of modern methods of propaganda ...Although this science will be diligently studied, it will be rigidly confined to the governing class (Elite). The populace will not be allowed to know how its convictions were generated."
One of the great Psychiatric Gurus of Mental Health speaks:
Dr. G. BROCK CHISHOLM, First head of the World Federation of Mental Health (another N.W.O. group.) "What basic psychological distortion can be found in every civilization of which we know anything? The only psychological force capable of producing these perversions is morality - the concept of right and wrong. The re-interpretation and eventual eradication of the concept of right and wrong are the belated objectives of nearly all of psychotherapy."
"The pretense is made that to do away with right and wrong would produce uncivilized people, immorality, lawlessness, and social chaos. The fact is that most psychiatrists and psychologists and other respected people have escaped from moral chains and are able to think freely." Taken from the updated book, NONE DARE CALL IT TREASON, by J.A. Stormer
Police Officers have been among the first to notice that such teachings have produced exactly the results he (the good Doctor) said they would not produce. He lied. There is no greater promoter of change than FEAR, and no greater creator of fear than chaos and lawlessness throughout a nation. The enemy of our system knows that immorality breeds chaos and lawlessness. Chaos and lawlessness breads fear in the people and when fearful enough the people will accept any solution. Guess what the solution is?
We agree with Dr. Chisholm, that most of these minions of "psychobabble" have truly "escaped" from any and all moral foundation in their lives. Anything their patients dream up is perfectly okay and encouraged by most such "professionals". This "there is no right or wrong" psycho-babble is what is being drilled into the heads of those American school children whose parents have unfortunately placed them in Government Indoctrination Centers which we erroneously call our "educational" system.
In case any officer reading this publication thinks that this change in the morals of our nation is accidental, he or she must read the book, "THE SOVIET ART OF BRAINWASHING - A Synthesis of the Russian Textbook on Psycho-politics", written by Kenneth Goff. In this book, Goff, a one time dues-paying member of the Communist Party, writes: "During my training I was trained in Psycho-politics. This was the art of capturing the minds of a nation through brainwashing and fake mental health."
Kenneth Goff paid a high price for his efforts to alert the American people. After attempting to inform America of Marxist-trained Psychologists being placed inside the U.S. to change the morals and beliefs of our nation, he mysteriously died from poisoning in 1943. His farewell in his book says: "This manual of the Communist Party should be in the hands of every loyal American, that they may be alerted to the fact that it is not always by armies and guns that a nation is conquered." In this book is found an address by Beria, the Head of the Lenin School of Psycho-politics. His 1933 address to a group of American/Marxist Psychology students is most revealing.
Speaking to this group who would be returning to ply their treachery in the U.S. he says:
"A psycho-politician must work hard to produce the maximum chaos in the fields of 'mental healing.' You must work until every teacher of psychology unknowingly or knowingly teaches only Communist doctrine under the guise of 'psychology.' You must labor until every doctor and psychiatrist is either a psycho-politician or an unwitting assistant to our aims. You must labor until we have dominion of the minds and bodies of every important person in your nation (America). You must work until suicide arising from mental imbalance is common and calls forth no general investigation or remark... You must dominate as respected men the fields of psychiatry and psychology. You must dominate the hospitals and universities... You can come and take your instructions as worshippers of Freud...
Psycho-politics is a solemn charge. With it you can erase our enemies as insects. You (psychologists) can change their (leaders) loyalties by psycho-politics. Given a short time with a psycho-politician you can alter forever the loyalty of a soldier in our hands or a statesman or a leader in his own country, or you can destroy his mind.
Use the courts, use the judges, use the Constitution of the country, use its medical societies and its laws to further our ends... By psycho-politics create chaos. Leave a nation leaderless. Kill our enemies. And bring to Earth, through Communism, the greatest peace man has ever known. Thank you."
(This is only part of Beria's speech to the visiting American psychology students.)
NOTE: Everything he asked these students to accomplish when they returned to practice their "art" in our nation has occurred. And now we can look forward to that "peace" he promised under the U.N. New World Order."

Operation Vampire Killer 2000
submitted by LittleCatChase to conspiracy [link] [comments]


2023.06.10 01:21 Academic-Principle14 Jordan Love has big shoes to fill. Aaron Rogers was the highest ceiling QB in the history of the league.

4,000+ Pass Yards, 40+ Pass TD, <10 Int in a Single Season - Aaron Rogers: 3 in 15 years as a starter
4,000+ Pass Yards, 35+ Pass TD, <10 Int in a Single Season
3,000+ Pass Yards, 30+ Pass TD, <10 Int in a Single Season
submitted by Academic-Principle14 to GreenBayPackers [link] [comments]


2023.06.10 00:08 TradeGopher Russell Reconstitution Update - Mullen Remains on Deletion List

Russell Reconstitution Update - Mullen Remains on Deletion List
New weekly list of Russell deletions (pdf) is out.
Mullen appears to still be on the list set to be deleted from the Russell at market close on Friday June 23rd.
submitted by TradeGopher to Muln [link] [comments]


2023.06.09 23:36 Rickastleyisking UPDATED ROSTERS FOR OPENING DAY!

UPDATED ROSTERS FOR OPENING DAY!
Ladies and Gents here is the Opening Day Roster. Eagles vs Mallards will be posted at about 10pm EST tonight. If you can please post your lineups in these comments below that would be great if not I will go with best available lineup. This will be a great season!
submitted by Rickastleyisking to MLWSimLeague [link] [comments]


2023.06.09 23:31 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023

Good Friday evening to all of you here on StockMarketChat! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023.

S&P 500 notches fourth straight positive week, touches highest level since August: Live updates - (Source)

The S&P 500 rose slightly Friday, touching the 4,300 level for the first time since August 2022 as investors looked ahead to upcoming inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s latest policy announcement.
The broad-market index gained 0.11%, closing at 4,298.86. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.16% to end at 13,259.14. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded up 43.17 points, or 0.13%, closing at 33,876.78. It was the 30-stock Dow’s fourth consecutive positive day.
For the week, the S&P 500 was up 0.39%. This was the broad-market index’s fourth straight winning week — a feat it last accomplished in August. The Nasdaq was up about 0.14%, posting its seventh straight winning week — its first streak of that length since November 2019. The Dow advanced 0.34%.
Investors were encouraged by signs that a broader swath of stocks, including small-cap equities, was participating in the recent rally. The Russell 2000 was down slightly on the day, but notched a weekly gain of 1.9%.
“It’s the first time in a while where investors seem to be feeling a greater sense of certainty. And we think that’s been a turning point from what had been more of a bearish cautious sentiment,” said Greg Bassuk, CEO at AXS Investments.
“We think that as we walk through these next few weeks, that will be increasingly clear that the economy is more resilient than folks have given it credit for the last six months,” said Scott Ladner, chief investment officer at Horizon Investments. “That will sort of dawn on people that small-caps and cyclicals probably have a reasonable shot to play catch up.”
The market is also looking toward next week’s consumer price index numbers and the Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Markets are currently anticipating a more than 71% probability the central bank will pause on rate hikes at the June meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

June’s Quad Witching Options Expiration Riddled With Volatility

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The second Triple Witching Week (Quadruple Witching if you prefer) of the year brings on some volatile trading with losses frequently exceeding gains. NASDAQ has the weakest record on the first trading day of the week. Triple-Witching Friday is usually better, S&P 500 has been up 12 of the last 20 years, but down 6 of the last 8.
Full-week performance is choppy as well, littered with greater than 1% moves in both directions. The week after June’s Triple-Witching Day is horrendous. This week has experienced DJIA losses in 27 of the last 33 years with an average performance of –0.81%. S&P 500 and NASDAQ have fared better during the week after over the same 33-year span. S&P 500’s averaged –0.46%. NASDAQ has averaged +0.03%. 2022’s sizable gains during the week after improve historical average performance notably.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

A New Bull Market: What’s Driving It?

The S&P 500 finally closed 20% above its October 12th (2022) closing low. This puts the index in “official” bull market territory.
Of course, if you had been reading or listening to Ryan on our Facts vs Feelings podcast, you’d have heard him say that October 12th was the low. He actually wrote a piece titled “Why Stocks Likely Just Bottomed” on October 19th!
The S&P 500 Index fell 25% from its peak on January 3rd, 2022 through October 12th. The subsequent 20% gain still puts it 10% below the prior peak. This does get to “math of volatility”. The index would need to gain 33% from its low to regain that level. This is a reason why it’s always better to lose less, is because you need to gain less to get back to even.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
So, what’s next? The good news is that future returns are strong. In his latest piece, Ryan wrote that out of 13 times when stocks rose 20% off a 52-week low, 10 of those times the lows were not violated. The average return 12 months later was close to 18%. The only time we didn’t see a gain was in the 2001-2002 bear market.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
** Digging into the return drivers**
It’s interesting to look at what’s been driving returns over the past year. This can help us think about what may lie ahead. The question was prompted by our friend, Sam Ro’s latest piece on the bull market breakout. He wrote that earnings haven’t been as bad as expected. More importantly, prospects have actually been improving.
The chart below shows earnings expectations for the S&P 500 over the next 12 months. You can see how it rose in the first half of 2022, before collapsing over the second half of the year. The collapse continued into January of this year. But since then, earnings expectations have steadily risen. In fact, they’ve accelerated higher since mid-April, after the last earnings season started. Currently, they’re higher than where we started the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Backing up a bit: we can break apart the price return of a stock (or index) into two components:
  • Earnings growth
  • Valuation multiple growth
I decomposed annual S&P 500 returns from 2020 – 2023 (through June 8th) into these two components. The chart below shows how these added up to the total return for each year. It also includes:
  • The bear market pullback from January 3rd, 2022, through October 12th, 2022
  • And the 20% rally from the low through June 8th, 2023
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
You can see how multiple changes have dominated the swing in returns.
The notable exception is 2021, when the S&P 500 return was propelled by earnings growth. In contrast, the 2022 pullback was entirely attributed to multiple contraction. Earnings made a positive contribution in 2022.
Now, multiple contraction is not surprising given the rapid change in rates, as the Federal Reserve (Fed) looked to get on top of inflation. However, they are close to the end of rate hikes, and so that’s no longer a big drag on multiples.
Consequently, multiple growth has pulled the index higher this year. You can see how multiple contraction basically drove the pullback in the Index during the bear market, through the low. But since then, multiples have expanded, pretty much driving the 20% gain.
Here’s a more dynamic picture of the S&P 500’s cumulative price return action from January 3rd, 2022, through June 8th, 2023. The chart also shows the contribution from earnings and multiple growth. As you can see, earnings have been fairly steady, rising 4% over the entire period. However, the swing in multiples is what drove the price return volatility.
Multiples contracted by 14%, and when combined with 4% earnings growth, you experienced the index return of -10%.
What next?
As I pointed out above, the problem for stocks last year was multiple contraction, which was driven by a rapid surge in interest rates.
The good news is that we’re probably close to end of rate hikes. The Fed may go ahead with just one more rate hike (in July), which is not much within the context of the 5%-point increase in rates that they implemented over the past year.
Our view is that rates are likely to remain where they are for a while. But rates are unlikely to rise from 5% to 10%, or even 7%, unless we get another major inflation shock.
This means a major obstacle that hindered stocks last year is dissipating. The removal of this headwind is yet another positive factor for stocks as we look ahead into the second half of the year.

Why Low Volatility Isn’t Bearish

“There is no such thing as average when it comes to the stock market or investing.” -Ryan Detrick
You might have heard by now, but the CBOE Volatility Index (better known as the VIX) made a new 52-week low earlier this week and closed beneath 14 for the first time in more than three years. This has many in the financial media clamoring that ‘the VIX is low and this is bearish’.
They have been telling us (incorrectly) that only five stocks have been going up and this was bearish, that a recession was right around the corner, that the yield curve being inverted was bearish, that M2 money supply YoY tanking was bearish, and now we have the VIX being low is bearish. We’ve disagreed with all of these worries and now we take issue with a low VIX as being bearish.
What exactly is the VIX you ask? I’d suggest reading this summary from Investopedia for a full explanation, but it is simply how much option players are willing to pay up for potential volatility over the coming 30 days. If they sense volatility, they will pay up for insurance. What you might know is that when the VIX is high (say above 30), that means the market tends to be more volatile and likely in a bearish phase. Versus a low VIX (say sub 15) historically has lead to some really nice bull markets and small amounts of volatility.
Back to your regularly scheduled blog now.
The last time the VIX went this long above 14 was for more than five years, ending in August 2012. You know what happened next that time? The S&P 500 added more than 18% the following 12 months. Yes, this is a sample size of one, but I think it shows that a VIX sub 14 by itself isn’t the end of the world.
One of the key concepts around volatility is trends can last for years. What I mean by this is for years the VIX can be high and for years it can be low. Since 1990, the average VIX was 19.7, but it rarely trades around that average. Take another look at the quote I’ve used many times above, as averages aren’t so average. This chart is one I’ve used for years now and I think we could be on the cusp of another low volatility regime. The red areas are times the VIX was consistently above 20, while the yellow were beneath 20. What you also need to know is those red periods usually took place during bear markets and very volatile markets, while the yellow periods were hallmarked by low volatility and higher equity prices. Are we about to enter a new period of lower volatility? No one of course knows, but if this is about to happen (which is my vote), it is another reason to think that higher equity prices (our base case as we remain overweight equities in our Carson House Views) will be coming.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lastly, I’ll leave you on this potentially bullish point. We like to use relative ratios to get a feel for how one asset is going versus to another. We always want to be in assets or sectors that are showing relative strength, while avoiding areas that are weak.
Well, stocks just broke out to new highs relative to bonds once again. After a period of consolidation during the bear market last year, now we have stocks firmly in the driver seat relative to bonds. This is another reason we remain overweight stocks currently and continue to expect stocks to do better than bonds going forward.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Our Leading Economic Index Says the Economy is Not in a Recession

We’ve been writing since the end of last year about how we believe the economy can avoid a recession in 2023, including in our 2023 outlook. This has run contrary to most other economists’ predictions. Interestingly, the tide has been shifting recently, as we’ve gotten a string of relatively stronger economic data. More so after the latest payrolls data, which surprised again.
One challenge with economic data is that we get so many of them, and a lot of times they can send conflicting signals. It can be hard to parse through all of it and come up with an updated view of the economy after every data release.
One approach is to combine these into a single indicator, i.e. a “leading economic index” (LEI). It’s “leading” because the idea is to give you an early warning signal about economic turning points.
Simply put, it tells you what the economy is doing today and what it is likely to do in the near future.
The most popular LEI points to recession
One of the most widely used LEI’s is released by the Conference Board, and it currently points to recession. As you can see in the chart below, the Conference Board’s LEI is highly correlated with GDP growth – the chart shows year-over-year change in both.
You can see how the index started to fall ahead of the 2001 and 2008 recession (shaded areas). The 2020 pandemic recession was an anomaly since it hit so suddenly. In any case, using an LEI means we didn’t have to wait for GDP data (which are released well after a quarter ends) to tell us whether the economy was close to, or in a recession.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As you probably noticed above, the LEI is down 8% year-over-year, signaling a recession over the next 12 months. It’s been pointing to a recession since last fall, with the index declining for 13 straight months through April.
Quoting the Conference Board:
“The Conference Board forecasts a contraction of economic activity starting in Q2 leading to a mild recession by mid-2023.”
Safe to say, we’re close to mid-2023 and there’s no sign of a recession yet.
What’s inside the LEI
The Conference Board’s LEI has 10 components of which,
  • 3 are financial market indicators, including the S&P 500, and make up 22% of the index
  • 4 measure business and manufacturing activity (44%)
  • 1 measures housing activity (3%)
  • 2 are related to the consumer, including the labor market (31%)
You can see how these indicators have pulled the index down by 4.4% over the past 6 months, and by -0.6% in April alone.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s the thing. This popular LEI is premised on the fact that the manufacturing sector, and business activity/sentiment, is a leading indicator of the economy. This worked well in the past but is probably not indicative of what’s happening in the economy right now. For one thing, the manufacturing sector makes up just about 11% of GDP.
Consumption makes up 68% of the economy, and we believe it’s important to capture that.
In fact, consumption was strong in Q1 and even at the start of Q2, thanks to rising real incomes. Housing is also making a turnaround and should no longer be a drag on the economy going forward (as it has been over the past 8 quarters). The Federal Reserve (Fed) is also close to being done with rate hikes. Plus, as my colleague, Ryan Detrick pointed out, the stock market’s turned around and is close to entering a new bull market.
Obviously, there are a lot of data points that we look at and one way we parse through all of it is by constructing our own leading economic index.
An LEI that better reflects the US economy
We believe our proprietary LEI better captures the dynamics of the US economy. It was developed a decade ago and is a key input into our asset allocation decisions.
In contrast to the Conference Board’s measure, it includes 20+ components, including,
  • Consumer-related indicators (make up 50% of the index)
  • Housing activity (18%)
  • Business and manufacturing activity (23%)
  • Financial markets (9%)
Just as an example, the consumer-related data includes unemployment benefit claims, weekly hours worked, and vehicle sales. Housing includes indicators like building permits and new home sales.
The chart below shows how our LEI has moved through time – capturing whether the economy is growing below trend, on-trend (a value close to zero), or above trend. Like the Conference Board’s measure, it is able to capture major turning points in the business cycle. It declined ahead of the actual start of the 2011 and 2008 recessions.
As of April, our index is indicating that the economy is growing right along trend.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Last year, the index signaled that the economy was growing below trend, and that the risk of a recession was high.
Note that it didn’t point to an actual recession. Just that “risk” of one was higher than normal. In fact, our LEI held close to the lows we saw over the last decade, especially in 2011 and 2016 (after which the economy, and even the stock market, recovered).
The following chart captures a close-up view of the last 3 and half years, which includes the Covid pullback and subsequent recovery. The contribution from the 4 major categories is also shown. You can see how the consumer has remained strong over the past year – in fact, consumer indicators have been stronger this year than in late 2022.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The main risk of a recession last year was due to the Fed raising rates as fast as they did, which adversely impacted housing, financial markets, and business activity.
The good news is that these sectors are improving even as consumer strength continues. The improvement in housing is notable. Additionally, the drag from financial conditions is beginning to ease as we think that the Federal Reserve gets closer to the end of rate hikes, and markets rally.
Putting the Puzzle Together
Another novel part of our approach is that we have an LEI like the one for the US for more than 25 other countries. Each one is custom built to capture the dynamics of those economies. The individual country LEIs are also subsequently rolled up to a global index to give us a picture of the global economy, as shown below.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
I want to emphasize that we do not rely solely on this as the one and only input into our asset allocation, portfolio and risk management decisions. While it is an important component that encapsulates a lot of significant information, it is just one piece of the puzzle. Our process also has other pillars such as policy (both monetary and fiscal), technical factors, and valuations.
We believe it’s important to put all these pieces together, kind of like putting together a puzzle, to understand what’s happening in the economy and markets, and position portfolios accordingly.
Putting together a puzzle is both a mechanistic and artistic process. The mechanistic aspect involves sorting the pieces, finding edges, and matching colors, etc. It requires a logical and methodical approach, and in our process the LEI is key to that.
However, there is an artistic element as well. As we assemble the pieces together, a larger picture gradually emerges. You can make creative decisions about how each piece fits within the overall picture. Within the context of portfolio management, that takes a diverse range of experience. Which is the core strength of our Investment Research Team.

Welcome to the New Bull Market

“If you torture numbers enough, they will tell you anything.” -Yogi Berra, Yankee great and Hall of Fame catcher
Don’t shoot the messenger, but historically, it is widely considered a new bull market once stocks are more than 20% off their bear market lows. This is similar to when stocks are down 20% they are in a bear market. Well, the S&P 500 is less than one percent away from this 20% threshold, so get ready to hear a lot about it when it eventually happens.
I’m not crazy about this concept, as we’ve been in the camp that the bear market ended in October for months now (we started to say it in late October, getting some really odd looks I might add), meaning a new bull market has been here for a while. Take another look at the great Yogi quote above, as someone can get whatever they want probably when talking about bear and bull markets.
None the less, what exactly does a 20% move higher off a bear market low really mean? The good news is future returns are quite strong.
We found 13 times that stocks soared at least 20% off a 52-week low and 10 times the lows were indeed in and not violated. The only times it didn’t work? Twice during the tech bubble implosion and once during the Financial Crisis. In other words, some of the truly worst times to be invested in stocks. But the other 10 times, once there was a 20% gain, the lows were in and in most cases, higher prices were soon coming. This chart does a nice job of showing this concept, with the red dots the times new lows were still yet to come after a 20% bounce.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s a table with all the breakdowns. A year later stocks were down only once and that was during the 2001/2002 bear market, with the average gain a year after a 20% bounce at a very impressive 17.7%. It is worth noting that the one- and three-month returns aren’t anything special, probably because some type of consolidation would be expected after surges higher, but six months and a year later are quite strong.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As we’ve been saying this full year, we continue to expect stocks to do well this year and the upward move is firmly in place and studies like this do little to change our opinion.

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 9th, 2023

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/11/23

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
($ADBE $ORCL $KR $ACB $ATEX $ITI $LEN $MPAA $JBL $ECX $POWW $HITI $MMMB $CGNT $WLY $RFIL)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
(NONE.)
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 6.12.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Monday 6.12.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 6.13.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Tuesday 6.13.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.14.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.14.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.15.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.15.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 6.16.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!]())
(NONE.)

Friday 6.16.23 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!

I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead StockMarketChat. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to u/bigbear0083 [link] [comments]


2023.06.09 23:31 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023

Good Friday evening to all of you here on WallStreetStockMarket! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023.

S&P 500 notches fourth straight positive week, touches highest level since August: Live updates - (Source)

The S&P 500 rose slightly Friday, touching the 4,300 level for the first time since August 2022 as investors looked ahead to upcoming inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s latest policy announcement.
The broad-market index gained 0.11%, closing at 4,298.86. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.16% to end at 13,259.14. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded up 43.17 points, or 0.13%, closing at 33,876.78. It was the 30-stock Dow’s fourth consecutive positive day.
For the week, the S&P 500 was up 0.39%. This was the broad-market index’s fourth straight winning week — a feat it last accomplished in August. The Nasdaq was up about 0.14%, posting its seventh straight winning week — its first streak of that length since November 2019. The Dow advanced 0.34%.
Investors were encouraged by signs that a broader swath of stocks, including small-cap equities, was participating in the recent rally. The Russell 2000 was down slightly on the day, but notched a weekly gain of 1.9%.
“It’s the first time in a while where investors seem to be feeling a greater sense of certainty. And we think that’s been a turning point from what had been more of a bearish cautious sentiment,” said Greg Bassuk, CEO at AXS Investments.
“We think that as we walk through these next few weeks, that will be increasingly clear that the economy is more resilient than folks have given it credit for the last six months,” said Scott Ladner, chief investment officer at Horizon Investments. “That will sort of dawn on people that small-caps and cyclicals probably have a reasonable shot to play catch up.”
The market is also looking toward next week’s consumer price index numbers and the Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Markets are currently anticipating a more than 71% probability the central bank will pause on rate hikes at the June meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

June’s Quad Witching Options Expiration Riddled With Volatility

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The second Triple Witching Week (Quadruple Witching if you prefer) of the year brings on some volatile trading with losses frequently exceeding gains. NASDAQ has the weakest record on the first trading day of the week. Triple-Witching Friday is usually better, S&P 500 has been up 12 of the last 20 years, but down 6 of the last 8.
Full-week performance is choppy as well, littered with greater than 1% moves in both directions. The week after June’s Triple-Witching Day is horrendous. This week has experienced DJIA losses in 27 of the last 33 years with an average performance of –0.81%. S&P 500 and NASDAQ have fared better during the week after over the same 33-year span. S&P 500’s averaged –0.46%. NASDAQ has averaged +0.03%. 2022’s sizable gains during the week after improve historical average performance notably.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

A New Bull Market: What’s Driving It?

The S&P 500 finally closed 20% above its October 12th (2022) closing low. This puts the index in “official” bull market territory.
Of course, if you had been reading or listening to Ryan on our Facts vs Feelings podcast, you’d have heard him say that October 12th was the low. He actually wrote a piece titled “Why Stocks Likely Just Bottomed” on October 19th!
The S&P 500 Index fell 25% from its peak on January 3rd, 2022 through October 12th. The subsequent 20% gain still puts it 10% below the prior peak. This does get to “math of volatility”. The index would need to gain 33% from its low to regain that level. This is a reason why it’s always better to lose less, is because you need to gain less to get back to even.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
So, what’s next? The good news is that future returns are strong. In his latest piece, Ryan wrote that out of 13 times when stocks rose 20% off a 52-week low, 10 of those times the lows were not violated. The average return 12 months later was close to 18%. The only time we didn’t see a gain was in the 2001-2002 bear market.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
** Digging into the return drivers**
It’s interesting to look at what’s been driving returns over the past year. This can help us think about what may lie ahead. The question was prompted by our friend, Sam Ro’s latest piece on the bull market breakout. He wrote that earnings haven’t been as bad as expected. More importantly, prospects have actually been improving.
The chart below shows earnings expectations for the S&P 500 over the next 12 months. You can see how it rose in the first half of 2022, before collapsing over the second half of the year. The collapse continued into January of this year. But since then, earnings expectations have steadily risen. In fact, they’ve accelerated higher since mid-April, after the last earnings season started. Currently, they’re higher than where we started the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Backing up a bit: we can break apart the price return of a stock (or index) into two components:
  • Earnings growth
  • Valuation multiple growth
I decomposed annual S&P 500 returns from 2020 – 2023 (through June 8th) into these two components. The chart below shows how these added up to the total return for each year. It also includes:
  • The bear market pullback from January 3rd, 2022, through October 12th, 2022
  • And the 20% rally from the low through June 8th, 2023
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
You can see how multiple changes have dominated the swing in returns.
The notable exception is 2021, when the S&P 500 return was propelled by earnings growth. In contrast, the 2022 pullback was entirely attributed to multiple contraction. Earnings made a positive contribution in 2022.
Now, multiple contraction is not surprising given the rapid change in rates, as the Federal Reserve (Fed) looked to get on top of inflation. However, they are close to the end of rate hikes, and so that’s no longer a big drag on multiples.
Consequently, multiple growth has pulled the index higher this year. You can see how multiple contraction basically drove the pullback in the Index during the bear market, through the low. But since then, multiples have expanded, pretty much driving the 20% gain.
Here’s a more dynamic picture of the S&P 500’s cumulative price return action from January 3rd, 2022, through June 8th, 2023. The chart also shows the contribution from earnings and multiple growth. As you can see, earnings have been fairly steady, rising 4% over the entire period. However, the swing in multiples is what drove the price return volatility.
Multiples contracted by 14%, and when combined with 4% earnings growth, you experienced the index return of -10%.
What next?
As I pointed out above, the problem for stocks last year was multiple contraction, which was driven by a rapid surge in interest rates.
The good news is that we’re probably close to end of rate hikes. The Fed may go ahead with just one more rate hike (in July), which is not much within the context of the 5%-point increase in rates that they implemented over the past year.
Our view is that rates are likely to remain where they are for a while. But rates are unlikely to rise from 5% to 10%, or even 7%, unless we get another major inflation shock.
This means a major obstacle that hindered stocks last year is dissipating. The removal of this headwind is yet another positive factor for stocks as we look ahead into the second half of the year.

Why Low Volatility Isn’t Bearish

“There is no such thing as average when it comes to the stock market or investing.” -Ryan Detrick
You might have heard by now, but the CBOE Volatility Index (better known as the VIX) made a new 52-week low earlier this week and closed beneath 14 for the first time in more than three years. This has many in the financial media clamoring that ‘the VIX is low and this is bearish’.
They have been telling us (incorrectly) that only five stocks have been going up and this was bearish, that a recession was right around the corner, that the yield curve being inverted was bearish, that M2 money supply YoY tanking was bearish, and now we have the VIX being low is bearish. We’ve disagreed with all of these worries and now we take issue with a low VIX as being bearish.
What exactly is the VIX you ask? I’d suggest reading this summary from Investopedia for a full explanation, but it is simply how much option players are willing to pay up for potential volatility over the coming 30 days. If they sense volatility, they will pay up for insurance. What you might know is that when the VIX is high (say above 30), that means the market tends to be more volatile and likely in a bearish phase. Versus a low VIX (say sub 15) historically has lead to some really nice bull markets and small amounts of volatility.
Back to your regularly scheduled blog now.
The last time the VIX went this long above 14 was for more than five years, ending in August 2012. You know what happened next that time? The S&P 500 added more than 18% the following 12 months. Yes, this is a sample size of one, but I think it shows that a VIX sub 14 by itself isn’t the end of the world.
One of the key concepts around volatility is trends can last for years. What I mean by this is for years the VIX can be high and for years it can be low. Since 1990, the average VIX was 19.7, but it rarely trades around that average. Take another look at the quote I’ve used many times above, as averages aren’t so average. This chart is one I’ve used for years now and I think we could be on the cusp of another low volatility regime. The red areas are times the VIX was consistently above 20, while the yellow were beneath 20. What you also need to know is those red periods usually took place during bear markets and very volatile markets, while the yellow periods were hallmarked by low volatility and higher equity prices. Are we about to enter a new period of lower volatility? No one of course knows, but if this is about to happen (which is my vote), it is another reason to think that higher equity prices (our base case as we remain overweight equities in our Carson House Views) will be coming.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lastly, I’ll leave you on this potentially bullish point. We like to use relative ratios to get a feel for how one asset is going versus to another. We always want to be in assets or sectors that are showing relative strength, while avoiding areas that are weak.
Well, stocks just broke out to new highs relative to bonds once again. After a period of consolidation during the bear market last year, now we have stocks firmly in the driver seat relative to bonds. This is another reason we remain overweight stocks currently and continue to expect stocks to do better than bonds going forward.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Our Leading Economic Index Says the Economy is Not in a Recession

We’ve been writing since the end of last year about how we believe the economy can avoid a recession in 2023, including in our 2023 outlook. This has run contrary to most other economists’ predictions. Interestingly, the tide has been shifting recently, as we’ve gotten a string of relatively stronger economic data. More so after the latest payrolls data, which surprised again.
One challenge with economic data is that we get so many of them, and a lot of times they can send conflicting signals. It can be hard to parse through all of it and come up with an updated view of the economy after every data release.
One approach is to combine these into a single indicator, i.e. a “leading economic index” (LEI). It’s “leading” because the idea is to give you an early warning signal about economic turning points.
Simply put, it tells you what the economy is doing today and what it is likely to do in the near future.
The most popular LEI points to recession
One of the most widely used LEI’s is released by the Conference Board, and it currently points to recession. As you can see in the chart below, the Conference Board’s LEI is highly correlated with GDP growth – the chart shows year-over-year change in both.
You can see how the index started to fall ahead of the 2001 and 2008 recession (shaded areas). The 2020 pandemic recession was an anomaly since it hit so suddenly. In any case, using an LEI means we didn’t have to wait for GDP data (which are released well after a quarter ends) to tell us whether the economy was close to, or in a recession.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As you probably noticed above, the LEI is down 8% year-over-year, signaling a recession over the next 12 months. It’s been pointing to a recession since last fall, with the index declining for 13 straight months through April.
Quoting the Conference Board:
“The Conference Board forecasts a contraction of economic activity starting in Q2 leading to a mild recession by mid-2023.”
Safe to say, we’re close to mid-2023 and there’s no sign of a recession yet.
What’s inside the LEI
The Conference Board’s LEI has 10 components of which,
  • 3 are financial market indicators, including the S&P 500, and make up 22% of the index
  • 4 measure business and manufacturing activity (44%)
  • 1 measures housing activity (3%)
  • 2 are related to the consumer, including the labor market (31%)
You can see how these indicators have pulled the index down by 4.4% over the past 6 months, and by -0.6% in April alone.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s the thing. This popular LEI is premised on the fact that the manufacturing sector, and business activity/sentiment, is a leading indicator of the economy. This worked well in the past but is probably not indicative of what’s happening in the economy right now. For one thing, the manufacturing sector makes up just about 11% of GDP.
Consumption makes up 68% of the economy, and we believe it’s important to capture that.
In fact, consumption was strong in Q1 and even at the start of Q2, thanks to rising real incomes. Housing is also making a turnaround and should no longer be a drag on the economy going forward (as it has been over the past 8 quarters). The Federal Reserve (Fed) is also close to being done with rate hikes. Plus, as my colleague, Ryan Detrick pointed out, the stock market’s turned around and is close to entering a new bull market.
Obviously, there are a lot of data points that we look at and one way we parse through all of it is by constructing our own leading economic index.
An LEI that better reflects the US economy
We believe our proprietary LEI better captures the dynamics of the US economy. It was developed a decade ago and is a key input into our asset allocation decisions.
In contrast to the Conference Board’s measure, it includes 20+ components, including,
  • Consumer-related indicators (make up 50% of the index)
  • Housing activity (18%)
  • Business and manufacturing activity (23%)
  • Financial markets (9%)
Just as an example, the consumer-related data includes unemployment benefit claims, weekly hours worked, and vehicle sales. Housing includes indicators like building permits and new home sales.
The chart below shows how our LEI has moved through time – capturing whether the economy is growing below trend, on-trend (a value close to zero), or above trend. Like the Conference Board’s measure, it is able to capture major turning points in the business cycle. It declined ahead of the actual start of the 2011 and 2008 recessions.
As of April, our index is indicating that the economy is growing right along trend.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Last year, the index signaled that the economy was growing below trend, and that the risk of a recession was high.
Note that it didn’t point to an actual recession. Just that “risk” of one was higher than normal. In fact, our LEI held close to the lows we saw over the last decade, especially in 2011 and 2016 (after which the economy, and even the stock market, recovered).
The following chart captures a close-up view of the last 3 and half years, which includes the Covid pullback and subsequent recovery. The contribution from the 4 major categories is also shown. You can see how the consumer has remained strong over the past year – in fact, consumer indicators have been stronger this year than in late 2022.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The main risk of a recession last year was due to the Fed raising rates as fast as they did, which adversely impacted housing, financial markets, and business activity.
The good news is that these sectors are improving even as consumer strength continues. The improvement in housing is notable. Additionally, the drag from financial conditions is beginning to ease as we think that the Federal Reserve gets closer to the end of rate hikes, and markets rally.
Putting the Puzzle Together
Another novel part of our approach is that we have an LEI like the one for the US for more than 25 other countries. Each one is custom built to capture the dynamics of those economies. The individual country LEIs are also subsequently rolled up to a global index to give us a picture of the global economy, as shown below.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
I want to emphasize that we do not rely solely on this as the one and only input into our asset allocation, portfolio and risk management decisions. While it is an important component that encapsulates a lot of significant information, it is just one piece of the puzzle. Our process also has other pillars such as policy (both monetary and fiscal), technical factors, and valuations.
We believe it’s important to put all these pieces together, kind of like putting together a puzzle, to understand what’s happening in the economy and markets, and position portfolios accordingly.
Putting together a puzzle is both a mechanistic and artistic process. The mechanistic aspect involves sorting the pieces, finding edges, and matching colors, etc. It requires a logical and methodical approach, and in our process the LEI is key to that.
However, there is an artistic element as well. As we assemble the pieces together, a larger picture gradually emerges. You can make creative decisions about how each piece fits within the overall picture. Within the context of portfolio management, that takes a diverse range of experience. Which is the core strength of our Investment Research Team.

Welcome to the New Bull Market

“If you torture numbers enough, they will tell you anything.” -Yogi Berra, Yankee great and Hall of Fame catcher
Don’t shoot the messenger, but historically, it is widely considered a new bull market once stocks are more than 20% off their bear market lows. This is similar to when stocks are down 20% they are in a bear market. Well, the S&P 500 is less than one percent away from this 20% threshold, so get ready to hear a lot about it when it eventually happens.
I’m not crazy about this concept, as we’ve been in the camp that the bear market ended in October for months now (we started to say it in late October, getting some really odd looks I might add), meaning a new bull market has been here for a while. Take another look at the great Yogi quote above, as someone can get whatever they want probably when talking about bear and bull markets.
None the less, what exactly does a 20% move higher off a bear market low really mean? The good news is future returns are quite strong.
We found 13 times that stocks soared at least 20% off a 52-week low and 10 times the lows were indeed in and not violated. The only times it didn’t work? Twice during the tech bubble implosion and once during the Financial Crisis. In other words, some of the truly worst times to be invested in stocks. But the other 10 times, once there was a 20% gain, the lows were in and in most cases, higher prices were soon coming. This chart does a nice job of showing this concept, with the red dots the times new lows were still yet to come after a 20% bounce.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s a table with all the breakdowns. A year later stocks were down only once and that was during the 2001/2002 bear market, with the average gain a year after a 20% bounce at a very impressive 17.7%. It is worth noting that the one- and three-month returns aren’t anything special, probably because some type of consolidation would be expected after surges higher, but six months and a year later are quite strong.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As we’ve been saying this full year, we continue to expect stocks to do well this year and the upward move is firmly in place and studies like this do little to change our opinion.

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 9th, 2023

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/11/23

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
($ADBE $ORCL $KR $ACB $ATEX $ITI $LEN $MPAA $JBL $ECX $POWW $HITI $MMMB $CGNT $WLY $RFIL)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
(NONE.)
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 6.12.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Monday 6.12.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 6.13.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Tuesday 6.13.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.14.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.14.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.15.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.15.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 6.16.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!]())
(NONE.)

Friday 6.16.23 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!

I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead WallStreetStockMarket. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to WallStreetStockMarket [link] [comments]


2023.06.09 23:30 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023

Good Friday evening to all of you here on StockMarketForums! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023.

S&P 500 notches fourth straight positive week, touches highest level since August: Live updates - (Source)

The S&P 500 rose slightly Friday, touching the 4,300 level for the first time since August 2022 as investors looked ahead to upcoming inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s latest policy announcement.
The broad-market index gained 0.11%, closing at 4,298.86. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.16% to end at 13,259.14. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded up 43.17 points, or 0.13%, closing at 33,876.78. It was the 30-stock Dow’s fourth consecutive positive day.
For the week, the S&P 500 was up 0.39%. This was the broad-market index’s fourth straight winning week — a feat it last accomplished in August. The Nasdaq was up about 0.14%, posting its seventh straight winning week — its first streak of that length since November 2019. The Dow advanced 0.34%.
Investors were encouraged by signs that a broader swath of stocks, including small-cap equities, was participating in the recent rally. The Russell 2000 was down slightly on the day, but notched a weekly gain of 1.9%.
“It’s the first time in a while where investors seem to be feeling a greater sense of certainty. And we think that’s been a turning point from what had been more of a bearish cautious sentiment,” said Greg Bassuk, CEO at AXS Investments.
“We think that as we walk through these next few weeks, that will be increasingly clear that the economy is more resilient than folks have given it credit for the last six months,” said Scott Ladner, chief investment officer at Horizon Investments. “That will sort of dawn on people that small-caps and cyclicals probably have a reasonable shot to play catch up.”
The market is also looking toward next week’s consumer price index numbers and the Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Markets are currently anticipating a more than 71% probability the central bank will pause on rate hikes at the June meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

June’s Quad Witching Options Expiration Riddled With Volatility

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The second Triple Witching Week (Quadruple Witching if you prefer) of the year brings on some volatile trading with losses frequently exceeding gains. NASDAQ has the weakest record on the first trading day of the week. Triple-Witching Friday is usually better, S&P 500 has been up 12 of the last 20 years, but down 6 of the last 8.
Full-week performance is choppy as well, littered with greater than 1% moves in both directions. The week after June’s Triple-Witching Day is horrendous. This week has experienced DJIA losses in 27 of the last 33 years with an average performance of –0.81%. S&P 500 and NASDAQ have fared better during the week after over the same 33-year span. S&P 500’s averaged –0.46%. NASDAQ has averaged +0.03%. 2022’s sizable gains during the week after improve historical average performance notably.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

A New Bull Market: What’s Driving It?

The S&P 500 finally closed 20% above its October 12th (2022) closing low. This puts the index in “official” bull market territory.
Of course, if you had been reading or listening to Ryan on our Facts vs Feelings podcast, you’d have heard him say that October 12th was the low. He actually wrote a piece titled “Why Stocks Likely Just Bottomed” on October 19th!
The S&P 500 Index fell 25% from its peak on January 3rd, 2022 through October 12th. The subsequent 20% gain still puts it 10% below the prior peak. This does get to “math of volatility”. The index would need to gain 33% from its low to regain that level. This is a reason why it’s always better to lose less, is because you need to gain less to get back to even.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
So, what’s next? The good news is that future returns are strong. In his latest piece, Ryan wrote that out of 13 times when stocks rose 20% off a 52-week low, 10 of those times the lows were not violated. The average return 12 months later was close to 18%. The only time we didn’t see a gain was in the 2001-2002 bear market.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
** Digging into the return drivers**
It’s interesting to look at what’s been driving returns over the past year. This can help us think about what may lie ahead. The question was prompted by our friend, Sam Ro’s latest piece on the bull market breakout. He wrote that earnings haven’t been as bad as expected. More importantly, prospects have actually been improving.
The chart below shows earnings expectations for the S&P 500 over the next 12 months. You can see how it rose in the first half of 2022, before collapsing over the second half of the year. The collapse continued into January of this year. But since then, earnings expectations have steadily risen. In fact, they’ve accelerated higher since mid-April, after the last earnings season started. Currently, they’re higher than where we started the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Backing up a bit: we can break apart the price return of a stock (or index) into two components:
  • Earnings growth
  • Valuation multiple growth
I decomposed annual S&P 500 returns from 2020 – 2023 (through June 8th) into these two components. The chart below shows how these added up to the total return for each year. It also includes:
  • The bear market pullback from January 3rd, 2022, through October 12th, 2022
  • And the 20% rally from the low through June 8th, 2023
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
You can see how multiple changes have dominated the swing in returns.
The notable exception is 2021, when the S&P 500 return was propelled by earnings growth. In contrast, the 2022 pullback was entirely attributed to multiple contraction. Earnings made a positive contribution in 2022.
Now, multiple contraction is not surprising given the rapid change in rates, as the Federal Reserve (Fed) looked to get on top of inflation. However, they are close to the end of rate hikes, and so that’s no longer a big drag on multiples.
Consequently, multiple growth has pulled the index higher this year. You can see how multiple contraction basically drove the pullback in the Index during the bear market, through the low. But since then, multiples have expanded, pretty much driving the 20% gain.
Here’s a more dynamic picture of the S&P 500’s cumulative price return action from January 3rd, 2022, through June 8th, 2023. The chart also shows the contribution from earnings and multiple growth. As you can see, earnings have been fairly steady, rising 4% over the entire period. However, the swing in multiples is what drove the price return volatility.
Multiples contracted by 14%, and when combined with 4% earnings growth, you experienced the index return of -10%.
What next?
As I pointed out above, the problem for stocks last year was multiple contraction, which was driven by a rapid surge in interest rates.
The good news is that we’re probably close to end of rate hikes. The Fed may go ahead with just one more rate hike (in July), which is not much within the context of the 5%-point increase in rates that they implemented over the past year.
Our view is that rates are likely to remain where they are for a while. But rates are unlikely to rise from 5% to 10%, or even 7%, unless we get another major inflation shock.
This means a major obstacle that hindered stocks last year is dissipating. The removal of this headwind is yet another positive factor for stocks as we look ahead into the second half of the year.

Why Low Volatility Isn’t Bearish

“There is no such thing as average when it comes to the stock market or investing.” -Ryan Detrick
You might have heard by now, but the CBOE Volatility Index (better known as the VIX) made a new 52-week low earlier this week and closed beneath 14 for the first time in more than three years. This has many in the financial media clamoring that ‘the VIX is low and this is bearish’.
They have been telling us (incorrectly) that only five stocks have been going up and this was bearish, that a recession was right around the corner, that the yield curve being inverted was bearish, that M2 money supply YoY tanking was bearish, and now we have the VIX being low is bearish. We’ve disagreed with all of these worries and now we take issue with a low VIX as being bearish.
What exactly is the VIX you ask? I’d suggest reading this summary from Investopedia for a full explanation, but it is simply how much option players are willing to pay up for potential volatility over the coming 30 days. If they sense volatility, they will pay up for insurance. What you might know is that when the VIX is high (say above 30), that means the market tends to be more volatile and likely in a bearish phase. Versus a low VIX (say sub 15) historically has lead to some really nice bull markets and small amounts of volatility.
Back to your regularly scheduled blog now.
The last time the VIX went this long above 14 was for more than five years, ending in August 2012. You know what happened next that time? The S&P 500 added more than 18% the following 12 months. Yes, this is a sample size of one, but I think it shows that a VIX sub 14 by itself isn’t the end of the world.
One of the key concepts around volatility is trends can last for years. What I mean by this is for years the VIX can be high and for years it can be low. Since 1990, the average VIX was 19.7, but it rarely trades around that average. Take another look at the quote I’ve used many times above, as averages aren’t so average. This chart is one I’ve used for years now and I think we could be on the cusp of another low volatility regime. The red areas are times the VIX was consistently above 20, while the yellow were beneath 20. What you also need to know is those red periods usually took place during bear markets and very volatile markets, while the yellow periods were hallmarked by low volatility and higher equity prices. Are we about to enter a new period of lower volatility? No one of course knows, but if this is about to happen (which is my vote), it is another reason to think that higher equity prices (our base case as we remain overweight equities in our Carson House Views) will be coming.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lastly, I’ll leave you on this potentially bullish point. We like to use relative ratios to get a feel for how one asset is going versus to another. We always want to be in assets or sectors that are showing relative strength, while avoiding areas that are weak.
Well, stocks just broke out to new highs relative to bonds once again. After a period of consolidation during the bear market last year, now we have stocks firmly in the driver seat relative to bonds. This is another reason we remain overweight stocks currently and continue to expect stocks to do better than bonds going forward.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Our Leading Economic Index Says the Economy is Not in a Recession

We’ve been writing since the end of last year about how we believe the economy can avoid a recession in 2023, including in our 2023 outlook. This has run contrary to most other economists’ predictions. Interestingly, the tide has been shifting recently, as we’ve gotten a string of relatively stronger economic data. More so after the latest payrolls data, which surprised again.
One challenge with economic data is that we get so many of them, and a lot of times they can send conflicting signals. It can be hard to parse through all of it and come up with an updated view of the economy after every data release.
One approach is to combine these into a single indicator, i.e. a “leading economic index” (LEI). It’s “leading” because the idea is to give you an early warning signal about economic turning points.
Simply put, it tells you what the economy is doing today and what it is likely to do in the near future.
The most popular LEI points to recession
One of the most widely used LEI’s is released by the Conference Board, and it currently points to recession. As you can see in the chart below, the Conference Board’s LEI is highly correlated with GDP growth – the chart shows year-over-year change in both.
You can see how the index started to fall ahead of the 2001 and 2008 recession (shaded areas). The 2020 pandemic recession was an anomaly since it hit so suddenly. In any case, using an LEI means we didn’t have to wait for GDP data (which are released well after a quarter ends) to tell us whether the economy was close to, or in a recession.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As you probably noticed above, the LEI is down 8% year-over-year, signaling a recession over the next 12 months. It’s been pointing to a recession since last fall, with the index declining for 13 straight months through April.
Quoting the Conference Board:
“The Conference Board forecasts a contraction of economic activity starting in Q2 leading to a mild recession by mid-2023.”
Safe to say, we’re close to mid-2023 and there’s no sign of a recession yet.
What’s inside the LEI
The Conference Board’s LEI has 10 components of which,
  • 3 are financial market indicators, including the S&P 500, and make up 22% of the index
  • 4 measure business and manufacturing activity (44%)
  • 1 measures housing activity (3%)
  • 2 are related to the consumer, including the labor market (31%)
You can see how these indicators have pulled the index down by 4.4% over the past 6 months, and by -0.6% in April alone.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s the thing. This popular LEI is premised on the fact that the manufacturing sector, and business activity/sentiment, is a leading indicator of the economy. This worked well in the past but is probably not indicative of what’s happening in the economy right now. For one thing, the manufacturing sector makes up just about 11% of GDP.
Consumption makes up 68% of the economy, and we believe it’s important to capture that.
In fact, consumption was strong in Q1 and even at the start of Q2, thanks to rising real incomes. Housing is also making a turnaround and should no longer be a drag on the economy going forward (as it has been over the past 8 quarters). The Federal Reserve (Fed) is also close to being done with rate hikes. Plus, as my colleague, Ryan Detrick pointed out, the stock market’s turned around and is close to entering a new bull market.
Obviously, there are a lot of data points that we look at and one way we parse through all of it is by constructing our own leading economic index.
An LEI that better reflects the US economy
We believe our proprietary LEI better captures the dynamics of the US economy. It was developed a decade ago and is a key input into our asset allocation decisions.
In contrast to the Conference Board’s measure, it includes 20+ components, including,
  • Consumer-related indicators (make up 50% of the index)
  • Housing activity (18%)
  • Business and manufacturing activity (23%)
  • Financial markets (9%)
Just as an example, the consumer-related data includes unemployment benefit claims, weekly hours worked, and vehicle sales. Housing includes indicators like building permits and new home sales.
The chart below shows how our LEI has moved through time – capturing whether the economy is growing below trend, on-trend (a value close to zero), or above trend. Like the Conference Board’s measure, it is able to capture major turning points in the business cycle. It declined ahead of the actual start of the 2011 and 2008 recessions.
As of April, our index is indicating that the economy is growing right along trend.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Last year, the index signaled that the economy was growing below trend, and that the risk of a recession was high.
Note that it didn’t point to an actual recession. Just that “risk” of one was higher than normal. In fact, our LEI held close to the lows we saw over the last decade, especially in 2011 and 2016 (after which the economy, and even the stock market, recovered).
The following chart captures a close-up view of the last 3 and half years, which includes the Covid pullback and subsequent recovery. The contribution from the 4 major categories is also shown. You can see how the consumer has remained strong over the past year – in fact, consumer indicators have been stronger this year than in late 2022.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The main risk of a recession last year was due to the Fed raising rates as fast as they did, which adversely impacted housing, financial markets, and business activity.
The good news is that these sectors are improving even as consumer strength continues. The improvement in housing is notable. Additionally, the drag from financial conditions is beginning to ease as we think that the Federal Reserve gets closer to the end of rate hikes, and markets rally.
Putting the Puzzle Together
Another novel part of our approach is that we have an LEI like the one for the US for more than 25 other countries. Each one is custom built to capture the dynamics of those economies. The individual country LEIs are also subsequently rolled up to a global index to give us a picture of the global economy, as shown below.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
I want to emphasize that we do not rely solely on this as the one and only input into our asset allocation, portfolio and risk management decisions. While it is an important component that encapsulates a lot of significant information, it is just one piece of the puzzle. Our process also has other pillars such as policy (both monetary and fiscal), technical factors, and valuations.
We believe it’s important to put all these pieces together, kind of like putting together a puzzle, to understand what’s happening in the economy and markets, and position portfolios accordingly.
Putting together a puzzle is both a mechanistic and artistic process. The mechanistic aspect involves sorting the pieces, finding edges, and matching colors, etc. It requires a logical and methodical approach, and in our process the LEI is key to that.
However, there is an artistic element as well. As we assemble the pieces together, a larger picture gradually emerges. You can make creative decisions about how each piece fits within the overall picture. Within the context of portfolio management, that takes a diverse range of experience. Which is the core strength of our Investment Research Team.

Welcome to the New Bull Market

“If you torture numbers enough, they will tell you anything.” -Yogi Berra, Yankee great and Hall of Fame catcher
Don’t shoot the messenger, but historically, it is widely considered a new bull market once stocks are more than 20% off their bear market lows. This is similar to when stocks are down 20% they are in a bear market. Well, the S&P 500 is less than one percent away from this 20% threshold, so get ready to hear a lot about it when it eventually happens.
I’m not crazy about this concept, as we’ve been in the camp that the bear market ended in October for months now (we started to say it in late October, getting some really odd looks I might add), meaning a new bull market has been here for a while. Take another look at the great Yogi quote above, as someone can get whatever they want probably when talking about bear and bull markets.
None the less, what exactly does a 20% move higher off a bear market low really mean? The good news is future returns are quite strong.
We found 13 times that stocks soared at least 20% off a 52-week low and 10 times the lows were indeed in and not violated. The only times it didn’t work? Twice during the tech bubble implosion and once during the Financial Crisis. In other words, some of the truly worst times to be invested in stocks. But the other 10 times, once there was a 20% gain, the lows were in and in most cases, higher prices were soon coming. This chart does a nice job of showing this concept, with the red dots the times new lows were still yet to come after a 20% bounce.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s a table with all the breakdowns. A year later stocks were down only once and that was during the 2001/2002 bear market, with the average gain a year after a 20% bounce at a very impressive 17.7%. It is worth noting that the one- and three-month returns aren’t anything special, probably because some type of consolidation would be expected after surges higher, but six months and a year later are quite strong.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As we’ve been saying this full year, we continue to expect stocks to do well this year and the upward move is firmly in place and studies like this do little to change our opinion.

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 9th, 2023

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/11/23

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
($ADBE $ORCL $KR $ACB $ATEX $ITI $LEN $MPAA $JBL $ECX $POWW $HITI $MMMB $CGNT $WLY $RFIL)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
(NONE.)
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 6.12.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Monday 6.12.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 6.13.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Tuesday 6.13.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.14.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.14.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.15.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.15.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 6.16.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!]())
(NONE.)

Friday 6.16.23 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!

I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead StockMarketForums. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to StockMarketForums [link] [comments]


2023.06.09 23:29 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023

Good Friday evening to all of you here on StocksMarket! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023.

S&P 500 notches fourth straight positive week, touches highest level since August: Live updates - (Source)

The S&P 500 rose slightly Friday, touching the 4,300 level for the first time since August 2022 as investors looked ahead to upcoming inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s latest policy announcement.
The broad-market index gained 0.11%, closing at 4,298.86. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.16% to end at 13,259.14. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded up 43.17 points, or 0.13%, closing at 33,876.78. It was the 30-stock Dow’s fourth consecutive positive day.
For the week, the S&P 500 was up 0.39%. This was the broad-market index’s fourth straight winning week — a feat it last accomplished in August. The Nasdaq was up about 0.14%, posting its seventh straight winning week — its first streak of that length since November 2019. The Dow advanced 0.34%.
Investors were encouraged by signs that a broader swath of stocks, including small-cap equities, was participating in the recent rally. The Russell 2000 was down slightly on the day, but notched a weekly gain of 1.9%.
“It’s the first time in a while where investors seem to be feeling a greater sense of certainty. And we think that’s been a turning point from what had been more of a bearish cautious sentiment,” said Greg Bassuk, CEO at AXS Investments.
“We think that as we walk through these next few weeks, that will be increasingly clear that the economy is more resilient than folks have given it credit for the last six months,” said Scott Ladner, chief investment officer at Horizon Investments. “That will sort of dawn on people that small-caps and cyclicals probably have a reasonable shot to play catch up.”
The market is also looking toward next week’s consumer price index numbers and the Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Markets are currently anticipating a more than 71% probability the central bank will pause on rate hikes at the June meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

June’s Quad Witching Options Expiration Riddled With Volatility

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The second Triple Witching Week (Quadruple Witching if you prefer) of the year brings on some volatile trading with losses frequently exceeding gains. NASDAQ has the weakest record on the first trading day of the week. Triple-Witching Friday is usually better, S&P 500 has been up 12 of the last 20 years, but down 6 of the last 8.
Full-week performance is choppy as well, littered with greater than 1% moves in both directions. The week after June’s Triple-Witching Day is horrendous. This week has experienced DJIA losses in 27 of the last 33 years with an average performance of –0.81%. S&P 500 and NASDAQ have fared better during the week after over the same 33-year span. S&P 500’s averaged –0.46%. NASDAQ has averaged +0.03%. 2022’s sizable gains during the week after improve historical average performance notably.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

A New Bull Market: What’s Driving It?

The S&P 500 finally closed 20% above its October 12th (2022) closing low. This puts the index in “official” bull market territory.
Of course, if you had been reading or listening to Ryan on our Facts vs Feelings podcast, you’d have heard him say that October 12th was the low. He actually wrote a piece titled “Why Stocks Likely Just Bottomed” on October 19th!
The S&P 500 Index fell 25% from its peak on January 3rd, 2022 through October 12th. The subsequent 20% gain still puts it 10% below the prior peak. This does get to “math of volatility”. The index would need to gain 33% from its low to regain that level. This is a reason why it’s always better to lose less, is because you need to gain less to get back to even.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
So, what’s next? The good news is that future returns are strong. In his latest piece, Ryan wrote that out of 13 times when stocks rose 20% off a 52-week low, 10 of those times the lows were not violated. The average return 12 months later was close to 18%. The only time we didn’t see a gain was in the 2001-2002 bear market.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
** Digging into the return drivers**
It’s interesting to look at what’s been driving returns over the past year. This can help us think about what may lie ahead. The question was prompted by our friend, Sam Ro’s latest piece on the bull market breakout. He wrote that earnings haven’t been as bad as expected. More importantly, prospects have actually been improving.
The chart below shows earnings expectations for the S&P 500 over the next 12 months. You can see how it rose in the first half of 2022, before collapsing over the second half of the year. The collapse continued into January of this year. But since then, earnings expectations have steadily risen. In fact, they’ve accelerated higher since mid-April, after the last earnings season started. Currently, they’re higher than where we started the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Backing up a bit: we can break apart the price return of a stock (or index) into two components:
  • Earnings growth
  • Valuation multiple growth
I decomposed annual S&P 500 returns from 2020 – 2023 (through June 8th) into these two components. The chart below shows how these added up to the total return for each year. It also includes:
  • The bear market pullback from January 3rd, 2022, through October 12th, 2022
  • And the 20% rally from the low through June 8th, 2023
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
You can see how multiple changes have dominated the swing in returns.
The notable exception is 2021, when the S&P 500 return was propelled by earnings growth. In contrast, the 2022 pullback was entirely attributed to multiple contraction. Earnings made a positive contribution in 2022.
Now, multiple contraction is not surprising given the rapid change in rates, as the Federal Reserve (Fed) looked to get on top of inflation. However, they are close to the end of rate hikes, and so that’s no longer a big drag on multiples.
Consequently, multiple growth has pulled the index higher this year. You can see how multiple contraction basically drove the pullback in the Index during the bear market, through the low. But since then, multiples have expanded, pretty much driving the 20% gain.
Here’s a more dynamic picture of the S&P 500’s cumulative price return action from January 3rd, 2022, through June 8th, 2023. The chart also shows the contribution from earnings and multiple growth. As you can see, earnings have been fairly steady, rising 4% over the entire period. However, the swing in multiples is what drove the price return volatility.
Multiples contracted by 14%, and when combined with 4% earnings growth, you experienced the index return of -10%.
What next?
As I pointed out above, the problem for stocks last year was multiple contraction, which was driven by a rapid surge in interest rates.
The good news is that we’re probably close to end of rate hikes. The Fed may go ahead with just one more rate hike (in July), which is not much within the context of the 5%-point increase in rates that they implemented over the past year.
Our view is that rates are likely to remain where they are for a while. But rates are unlikely to rise from 5% to 10%, or even 7%, unless we get another major inflation shock.
This means a major obstacle that hindered stocks last year is dissipating. The removal of this headwind is yet another positive factor for stocks as we look ahead into the second half of the year.

Why Low Volatility Isn’t Bearish

“There is no such thing as average when it comes to the stock market or investing.” -Ryan Detrick
You might have heard by now, but the CBOE Volatility Index (better known as the VIX) made a new 52-week low earlier this week and closed beneath 14 for the first time in more than three years. This has many in the financial media clamoring that ‘the VIX is low and this is bearish’.
They have been telling us (incorrectly) that only five stocks have been going up and this was bearish, that a recession was right around the corner, that the yield curve being inverted was bearish, that M2 money supply YoY tanking was bearish, and now we have the VIX being low is bearish. We’ve disagreed with all of these worries and now we take issue with a low VIX as being bearish.
What exactly is the VIX you ask? I’d suggest reading this summary from Investopedia for a full explanation, but it is simply how much option players are willing to pay up for potential volatility over the coming 30 days. If they sense volatility, they will pay up for insurance. What you might know is that when the VIX is high (say above 30), that means the market tends to be more volatile and likely in a bearish phase. Versus a low VIX (say sub 15) historically has lead to some really nice bull markets and small amounts of volatility.
Back to your regularly scheduled blog now.
The last time the VIX went this long above 14 was for more than five years, ending in August 2012. You know what happened next that time? The S&P 500 added more than 18% the following 12 months. Yes, this is a sample size of one, but I think it shows that a VIX sub 14 by itself isn’t the end of the world.
One of the key concepts around volatility is trends can last for years. What I mean by this is for years the VIX can be high and for years it can be low. Since 1990, the average VIX was 19.7, but it rarely trades around that average. Take another look at the quote I’ve used many times above, as averages aren’t so average. This chart is one I’ve used for years now and I think we could be on the cusp of another low volatility regime. The red areas are times the VIX was consistently above 20, while the yellow were beneath 20. What you also need to know is those red periods usually took place during bear markets and very volatile markets, while the yellow periods were hallmarked by low volatility and higher equity prices. Are we about to enter a new period of lower volatility? No one of course knows, but if this is about to happen (which is my vote), it is another reason to think that higher equity prices (our base case as we remain overweight equities in our Carson House Views) will be coming.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lastly, I’ll leave you on this potentially bullish point. We like to use relative ratios to get a feel for how one asset is going versus to another. We always want to be in assets or sectors that are showing relative strength, while avoiding areas that are weak.
Well, stocks just broke out to new highs relative to bonds once again. After a period of consolidation during the bear market last year, now we have stocks firmly in the driver seat relative to bonds. This is another reason we remain overweight stocks currently and continue to expect stocks to do better than bonds going forward.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Our Leading Economic Index Says the Economy is Not in a Recession

We’ve been writing since the end of last year about how we believe the economy can avoid a recession in 2023, including in our 2023 outlook. This has run contrary to most other economists’ predictions. Interestingly, the tide has been shifting recently, as we’ve gotten a string of relatively stronger economic data. More so after the latest payrolls data, which surprised again.
One challenge with economic data is that we get so many of them, and a lot of times they can send conflicting signals. It can be hard to parse through all of it and come up with an updated view of the economy after every data release.
One approach is to combine these into a single indicator, i.e. a “leading economic index” (LEI). It’s “leading” because the idea is to give you an early warning signal about economic turning points.
Simply put, it tells you what the economy is doing today and what it is likely to do in the near future.
The most popular LEI points to recession
One of the most widely used LEI’s is released by the Conference Board, and it currently points to recession. As you can see in the chart below, the Conference Board’s LEI is highly correlated with GDP growth – the chart shows year-over-year change in both.
You can see how the index started to fall ahead of the 2001 and 2008 recession (shaded areas). The 2020 pandemic recession was an anomaly since it hit so suddenly. In any case, using an LEI means we didn’t have to wait for GDP data (which are released well after a quarter ends) to tell us whether the economy was close to, or in a recession.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As you probably noticed above, the LEI is down 8% year-over-year, signaling a recession over the next 12 months. It’s been pointing to a recession since last fall, with the index declining for 13 straight months through April.
Quoting the Conference Board:
“The Conference Board forecasts a contraction of economic activity starting in Q2 leading to a mild recession by mid-2023.”
Safe to say, we’re close to mid-2023 and there’s no sign of a recession yet.
What’s inside the LEI
The Conference Board’s LEI has 10 components of which,
  • 3 are financial market indicators, including the S&P 500, and make up 22% of the index
  • 4 measure business and manufacturing activity (44%)
  • 1 measures housing activity (3%)
  • 2 are related to the consumer, including the labor market (31%)
You can see how these indicators have pulled the index down by 4.4% over the past 6 months, and by -0.6% in April alone.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s the thing. This popular LEI is premised on the fact that the manufacturing sector, and business activity/sentiment, is a leading indicator of the economy. This worked well in the past but is probably not indicative of what’s happening in the economy right now. For one thing, the manufacturing sector makes up just about 11% of GDP.
Consumption makes up 68% of the economy, and we believe it’s important to capture that.
In fact, consumption was strong in Q1 and even at the start of Q2, thanks to rising real incomes. Housing is also making a turnaround and should no longer be a drag on the economy going forward (as it has been over the past 8 quarters). The Federal Reserve (Fed) is also close to being done with rate hikes. Plus, as my colleague, Ryan Detrick pointed out, the stock market’s turned around and is close to entering a new bull market.
Obviously, there are a lot of data points that we look at and one way we parse through all of it is by constructing our own leading economic index.
An LEI that better reflects the US economy
We believe our proprietary LEI better captures the dynamics of the US economy. It was developed a decade ago and is a key input into our asset allocation decisions.
In contrast to the Conference Board’s measure, it includes 20+ components, including,
  • Consumer-related indicators (make up 50% of the index)
  • Housing activity (18%)
  • Business and manufacturing activity (23%)
  • Financial markets (9%)
Just as an example, the consumer-related data includes unemployment benefit claims, weekly hours worked, and vehicle sales. Housing includes indicators like building permits and new home sales.
The chart below shows how our LEI has moved through time – capturing whether the economy is growing below trend, on-trend (a value close to zero), or above trend. Like the Conference Board’s measure, it is able to capture major turning points in the business cycle. It declined ahead of the actual start of the 2011 and 2008 recessions.
As of April, our index is indicating that the economy is growing right along trend.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Last year, the index signaled that the economy was growing below trend, and that the risk of a recession was high.
Note that it didn’t point to an actual recession. Just that “risk” of one was higher than normal. In fact, our LEI held close to the lows we saw over the last decade, especially in 2011 and 2016 (after which the economy, and even the stock market, recovered).
The following chart captures a close-up view of the last 3 and half years, which includes the Covid pullback and subsequent recovery. The contribution from the 4 major categories is also shown. You can see how the consumer has remained strong over the past year – in fact, consumer indicators have been stronger this year than in late 2022.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The main risk of a recession last year was due to the Fed raising rates as fast as they did, which adversely impacted housing, financial markets, and business activity.
The good news is that these sectors are improving even as consumer strength continues. The improvement in housing is notable. Additionally, the drag from financial conditions is beginning to ease as we think that the Federal Reserve gets closer to the end of rate hikes, and markets rally.
Putting the Puzzle Together
Another novel part of our approach is that we have an LEI like the one for the US for more than 25 other countries. Each one is custom built to capture the dynamics of those economies. The individual country LEIs are also subsequently rolled up to a global index to give us a picture of the global economy, as shown below.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
I want to emphasize that we do not rely solely on this as the one and only input into our asset allocation, portfolio and risk management decisions. While it is an important component that encapsulates a lot of significant information, it is just one piece of the puzzle. Our process also has other pillars such as policy (both monetary and fiscal), technical factors, and valuations.
We believe it’s important to put all these pieces together, kind of like putting together a puzzle, to understand what’s happening in the economy and markets, and position portfolios accordingly.
Putting together a puzzle is both a mechanistic and artistic process. The mechanistic aspect involves sorting the pieces, finding edges, and matching colors, etc. It requires a logical and methodical approach, and in our process the LEI is key to that.
However, there is an artistic element as well. As we assemble the pieces together, a larger picture gradually emerges. You can make creative decisions about how each piece fits within the overall picture. Within the context of portfolio management, that takes a diverse range of experience. Which is the core strength of our Investment Research Team.

Welcome to the New Bull Market

“If you torture numbers enough, they will tell you anything.” -Yogi Berra, Yankee great and Hall of Fame catcher
Don’t shoot the messenger, but historically, it is widely considered a new bull market once stocks are more than 20% off their bear market lows. This is similar to when stocks are down 20% they are in a bear market. Well, the S&P 500 is less than one percent away from this 20% threshold, so get ready to hear a lot about it when it eventually happens.
I’m not crazy about this concept, as we’ve been in the camp that the bear market ended in October for months now (we started to say it in late October, getting some really odd looks I might add), meaning a new bull market has been here for a while. Take another look at the great Yogi quote above, as someone can get whatever they want probably when talking about bear and bull markets.
None the less, what exactly does a 20% move higher off a bear market low really mean? The good news is future returns are quite strong.
We found 13 times that stocks soared at least 20% off a 52-week low and 10 times the lows were indeed in and not violated. The only times it didn’t work? Twice during the tech bubble implosion and once during the Financial Crisis. In other words, some of the truly worst times to be invested in stocks. But the other 10 times, once there was a 20% gain, the lows were in and in most cases, higher prices were soon coming. This chart does a nice job of showing this concept, with the red dots the times new lows were still yet to come after a 20% bounce.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s a table with all the breakdowns. A year later stocks were down only once and that was during the 2001/2002 bear market, with the average gain a year after a 20% bounce at a very impressive 17.7%. It is worth noting that the one- and three-month returns aren’t anything special, probably because some type of consolidation would be expected after surges higher, but six months and a year later are quite strong.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As we’ve been saying this full year, we continue to expect stocks to do well this year and the upward move is firmly in place and studies like this do little to change our opinion.

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 9th, 2023

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/11/23

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
($ADBE $ORCL $KR $ACB $ATEX $ITI $LEN $MPAA $JBL $ECX $POWW $HITI $MMMB $CGNT $WLY $RFIL)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
(NONE.)
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 6.12.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Monday 6.12.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 6.13.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Tuesday 6.13.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.14.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.14.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.15.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.15.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 6.16.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!]())
(NONE.)

Friday 6.16.23 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!

I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead StocksMarket. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to StocksMarket [link] [comments]


2023.06.09 23:29 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023

Good Friday evening to all of you here on EarningsWhispers! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023.

S&P 500 notches fourth straight positive week, touches highest level since August: Live updates - (Source)

The S&P 500 rose slightly Friday, touching the 4,300 level for the first time since August 2022 as investors looked ahead to upcoming inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s latest policy announcement.
The broad-market index gained 0.11%, closing at 4,298.86. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.16% to end at 13,259.14. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded up 43.17 points, or 0.13%, closing at 33,876.78. It was the 30-stock Dow’s fourth consecutive positive day.
For the week, the S&P 500 was up 0.39%. This was the broad-market index’s fourth straight winning week — a feat it last accomplished in August. The Nasdaq was up about 0.14%, posting its seventh straight winning week — its first streak of that length since November 2019. The Dow advanced 0.34%.
Investors were encouraged by signs that a broader swath of stocks, including small-cap equities, was participating in the recent rally. The Russell 2000 was down slightly on the day, but notched a weekly gain of 1.9%.
“It’s the first time in a while where investors seem to be feeling a greater sense of certainty. And we think that’s been a turning point from what had been more of a bearish cautious sentiment,” said Greg Bassuk, CEO at AXS Investments.
“We think that as we walk through these next few weeks, that will be increasingly clear that the economy is more resilient than folks have given it credit for the last six months,” said Scott Ladner, chief investment officer at Horizon Investments. “That will sort of dawn on people that small-caps and cyclicals probably have a reasonable shot to play catch up.”
The market is also looking toward next week’s consumer price index numbers and the Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Markets are currently anticipating a more than 71% probability the central bank will pause on rate hikes at the June meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

June’s Quad Witching Options Expiration Riddled With Volatility

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The second Triple Witching Week (Quadruple Witching if you prefer) of the year brings on some volatile trading with losses frequently exceeding gains. NASDAQ has the weakest record on the first trading day of the week. Triple-Witching Friday is usually better, S&P 500 has been up 12 of the last 20 years, but down 6 of the last 8.
Full-week performance is choppy as well, littered with greater than 1% moves in both directions. The week after June’s Triple-Witching Day is horrendous. This week has experienced DJIA losses in 27 of the last 33 years with an average performance of –0.81%. S&P 500 and NASDAQ have fared better during the week after over the same 33-year span. S&P 500’s averaged –0.46%. NASDAQ has averaged +0.03%. 2022’s sizable gains during the week after improve historical average performance notably.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

A New Bull Market: What’s Driving It?

The S&P 500 finally closed 20% above its October 12th (2022) closing low. This puts the index in “official” bull market territory.
Of course, if you had been reading or listening to Ryan on our Facts vs Feelings podcast, you’d have heard him say that October 12th was the low. He actually wrote a piece titled “Why Stocks Likely Just Bottomed” on October 19th!
The S&P 500 Index fell 25% from its peak on January 3rd, 2022 through October 12th. The subsequent 20% gain still puts it 10% below the prior peak. This does get to “math of volatility”. The index would need to gain 33% from its low to regain that level. This is a reason why it’s always better to lose less, is because you need to gain less to get back to even.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
So, what’s next? The good news is that future returns are strong. In his latest piece, Ryan wrote that out of 13 times when stocks rose 20% off a 52-week low, 10 of those times the lows were not violated. The average return 12 months later was close to 18%. The only time we didn’t see a gain was in the 2001-2002 bear market.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
** Digging into the return drivers**
It’s interesting to look at what’s been driving returns over the past year. This can help us think about what may lie ahead. The question was prompted by our friend, Sam Ro’s latest piece on the bull market breakout. He wrote that earnings haven’t been as bad as expected. More importantly, prospects have actually been improving.
The chart below shows earnings expectations for the S&P 500 over the next 12 months. You can see how it rose in the first half of 2022, before collapsing over the second half of the year. The collapse continued into January of this year. But since then, earnings expectations have steadily risen. In fact, they’ve accelerated higher since mid-April, after the last earnings season started. Currently, they’re higher than where we started the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Backing up a bit: we can break apart the price return of a stock (or index) into two components:
  • Earnings growth
  • Valuation multiple growth
I decomposed annual S&P 500 returns from 2020 – 2023 (through June 8th) into these two components. The chart below shows how these added up to the total return for each year. It also includes:
  • The bear market pullback from January 3rd, 2022, through October 12th, 2022
  • And the 20% rally from the low through June 8th, 2023
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
You can see how multiple changes have dominated the swing in returns.
The notable exception is 2021, when the S&P 500 return was propelled by earnings growth. In contrast, the 2022 pullback was entirely attributed to multiple contraction. Earnings made a positive contribution in 2022.
Now, multiple contraction is not surprising given the rapid change in rates, as the Federal Reserve (Fed) looked to get on top of inflation. However, they are close to the end of rate hikes, and so that’s no longer a big drag on multiples.
Consequently, multiple growth has pulled the index higher this year. You can see how multiple contraction basically drove the pullback in the Index during the bear market, through the low. But since then, multiples have expanded, pretty much driving the 20% gain.
Here’s a more dynamic picture of the S&P 500’s cumulative price return action from January 3rd, 2022, through June 8th, 2023. The chart also shows the contribution from earnings and multiple growth. As you can see, earnings have been fairly steady, rising 4% over the entire period. However, the swing in multiples is what drove the price return volatility.
Multiples contracted by 14%, and when combined with 4% earnings growth, you experienced the index return of -10%.
What next?
As I pointed out above, the problem for stocks last year was multiple contraction, which was driven by a rapid surge in interest rates.
The good news is that we’re probably close to end of rate hikes. The Fed may go ahead with just one more rate hike (in July), which is not much within the context of the 5%-point increase in rates that they implemented over the past year.
Our view is that rates are likely to remain where they are for a while. But rates are unlikely to rise from 5% to 10%, or even 7%, unless we get another major inflation shock.
This means a major obstacle that hindered stocks last year is dissipating. The removal of this headwind is yet another positive factor for stocks as we look ahead into the second half of the year.

Why Low Volatility Isn’t Bearish

“There is no such thing as average when it comes to the stock market or investing.” -Ryan Detrick
You might have heard by now, but the CBOE Volatility Index (better known as the VIX) made a new 52-week low earlier this week and closed beneath 14 for the first time in more than three years. This has many in the financial media clamoring that ‘the VIX is low and this is bearish’.
They have been telling us (incorrectly) that only five stocks have been going up and this was bearish, that a recession was right around the corner, that the yield curve being inverted was bearish, that M2 money supply YoY tanking was bearish, and now we have the VIX being low is bearish. We’ve disagreed with all of these worries and now we take issue with a low VIX as being bearish.
What exactly is the VIX you ask? I’d suggest reading this summary from Investopedia for a full explanation, but it is simply how much option players are willing to pay up for potential volatility over the coming 30 days. If they sense volatility, they will pay up for insurance. What you might know is that when the VIX is high (say above 30), that means the market tends to be more volatile and likely in a bearish phase. Versus a low VIX (say sub 15) historically has lead to some really nice bull markets and small amounts of volatility.
Back to your regularly scheduled blog now.
The last time the VIX went this long above 14 was for more than five years, ending in August 2012. You know what happened next that time? The S&P 500 added more than 18% the following 12 months. Yes, this is a sample size of one, but I think it shows that a VIX sub 14 by itself isn’t the end of the world.
One of the key concepts around volatility is trends can last for years. What I mean by this is for years the VIX can be high and for years it can be low. Since 1990, the average VIX was 19.7, but it rarely trades around that average. Take another look at the quote I’ve used many times above, as averages aren’t so average. This chart is one I’ve used for years now and I think we could be on the cusp of another low volatility regime. The red areas are times the VIX was consistently above 20, while the yellow were beneath 20. What you also need to know is those red periods usually took place during bear markets and very volatile markets, while the yellow periods were hallmarked by low volatility and higher equity prices. Are we about to enter a new period of lower volatility? No one of course knows, but if this is about to happen (which is my vote), it is another reason to think that higher equity prices (our base case as we remain overweight equities in our Carson House Views) will be coming.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lastly, I’ll leave you on this potentially bullish point. We like to use relative ratios to get a feel for how one asset is going versus to another. We always want to be in assets or sectors that are showing relative strength, while avoiding areas that are weak.
Well, stocks just broke out to new highs relative to bonds once again. After a period of consolidation during the bear market last year, now we have stocks firmly in the driver seat relative to bonds. This is another reason we remain overweight stocks currently and continue to expect stocks to do better than bonds going forward.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Our Leading Economic Index Says the Economy is Not in a Recession

We’ve been writing since the end of last year about how we believe the economy can avoid a recession in 2023, including in our 2023 outlook. This has run contrary to most other economists’ predictions. Interestingly, the tide has been shifting recently, as we’ve gotten a string of relatively stronger economic data. More so after the latest payrolls data, which surprised again.
One challenge with economic data is that we get so many of them, and a lot of times they can send conflicting signals. It can be hard to parse through all of it and come up with an updated view of the economy after every data release.
One approach is to combine these into a single indicator, i.e. a “leading economic index” (LEI). It’s “leading” because the idea is to give you an early warning signal about economic turning points.
Simply put, it tells you what the economy is doing today and what it is likely to do in the near future.
The most popular LEI points to recession
One of the most widely used LEI’s is released by the Conference Board, and it currently points to recession. As you can see in the chart below, the Conference Board’s LEI is highly correlated with GDP growth – the chart shows year-over-year change in both.
You can see how the index started to fall ahead of the 2001 and 2008 recession (shaded areas). The 2020 pandemic recession was an anomaly since it hit so suddenly. In any case, using an LEI means we didn’t have to wait for GDP data (which are released well after a quarter ends) to tell us whether the economy was close to, or in a recession.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As you probably noticed above, the LEI is down 8% year-over-year, signaling a recession over the next 12 months. It’s been pointing to a recession since last fall, with the index declining for 13 straight months through April.
Quoting the Conference Board:
“The Conference Board forecasts a contraction of economic activity starting in Q2 leading to a mild recession by mid-2023.”
Safe to say, we’re close to mid-2023 and there’s no sign of a recession yet.
What’s inside the LEI
The Conference Board’s LEI has 10 components of which,
  • 3 are financial market indicators, including the S&P 500, and make up 22% of the index
  • 4 measure business and manufacturing activity (44%)
  • 1 measures housing activity (3%)
  • 2 are related to the consumer, including the labor market (31%)
You can see how these indicators have pulled the index down by 4.4% over the past 6 months, and by -0.6% in April alone.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s the thing. This popular LEI is premised on the fact that the manufacturing sector, and business activity/sentiment, is a leading indicator of the economy. This worked well in the past but is probably not indicative of what’s happening in the economy right now. For one thing, the manufacturing sector makes up just about 11% of GDP.
Consumption makes up 68% of the economy, and we believe it’s important to capture that.
In fact, consumption was strong in Q1 and even at the start of Q2, thanks to rising real incomes. Housing is also making a turnaround and should no longer be a drag on the economy going forward (as it has been over the past 8 quarters). The Federal Reserve (Fed) is also close to being done with rate hikes. Plus, as my colleague, Ryan Detrick pointed out, the stock market’s turned around and is close to entering a new bull market.
Obviously, there are a lot of data points that we look at and one way we parse through all of it is by constructing our own leading economic index.
An LEI that better reflects the US economy
We believe our proprietary LEI better captures the dynamics of the US economy. It was developed a decade ago and is a key input into our asset allocation decisions.
In contrast to the Conference Board’s measure, it includes 20+ components, including,
  • Consumer-related indicators (make up 50% of the index)
  • Housing activity (18%)
  • Business and manufacturing activity (23%)
  • Financial markets (9%)
Just as an example, the consumer-related data includes unemployment benefit claims, weekly hours worked, and vehicle sales. Housing includes indicators like building permits and new home sales.
The chart below shows how our LEI has moved through time – capturing whether the economy is growing below trend, on-trend (a value close to zero), or above trend. Like the Conference Board’s measure, it is able to capture major turning points in the business cycle. It declined ahead of the actual start of the 2011 and 2008 recessions.
As of April, our index is indicating that the economy is growing right along trend.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Last year, the index signaled that the economy was growing below trend, and that the risk of a recession was high.
Note that it didn’t point to an actual recession. Just that “risk” of one was higher than normal. In fact, our LEI held close to the lows we saw over the last decade, especially in 2011 and 2016 (after which the economy, and even the stock market, recovered).
The following chart captures a close-up view of the last 3 and half years, which includes the Covid pullback and subsequent recovery. The contribution from the 4 major categories is also shown. You can see how the consumer has remained strong over the past year – in fact, consumer indicators have been stronger this year than in late 2022.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The main risk of a recession last year was due to the Fed raising rates as fast as they did, which adversely impacted housing, financial markets, and business activity.
The good news is that these sectors are improving even as consumer strength continues. The improvement in housing is notable. Additionally, the drag from financial conditions is beginning to ease as we think that the Federal Reserve gets closer to the end of rate hikes, and markets rally.
Putting the Puzzle Together
Another novel part of our approach is that we have an LEI like the one for the US for more than 25 other countries. Each one is custom built to capture the dynamics of those economies. The individual country LEIs are also subsequently rolled up to a global index to give us a picture of the global economy, as shown below.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
I want to emphasize that we do not rely solely on this as the one and only input into our asset allocation, portfolio and risk management decisions. While it is an important component that encapsulates a lot of significant information, it is just one piece of the puzzle. Our process also has other pillars such as policy (both monetary and fiscal), technical factors, and valuations.
We believe it’s important to put all these pieces together, kind of like putting together a puzzle, to understand what’s happening in the economy and markets, and position portfolios accordingly.
Putting together a puzzle is both a mechanistic and artistic process. The mechanistic aspect involves sorting the pieces, finding edges, and matching colors, etc. It requires a logical and methodical approach, and in our process the LEI is key to that.
However, there is an artistic element as well. As we assemble the pieces together, a larger picture gradually emerges. You can make creative decisions about how each piece fits within the overall picture. Within the context of portfolio management, that takes a diverse range of experience. Which is the core strength of our Investment Research Team.

Welcome to the New Bull Market

“If you torture numbers enough, they will tell you anything.” -Yogi Berra, Yankee great and Hall of Fame catcher
Don’t shoot the messenger, but historically, it is widely considered a new bull market once stocks are more than 20% off their bear market lows. This is similar to when stocks are down 20% they are in a bear market. Well, the S&P 500 is less than one percent away from this 20% threshold, so get ready to hear a lot about it when it eventually happens.
I’m not crazy about this concept, as we’ve been in the camp that the bear market ended in October for months now (we started to say it in late October, getting some really odd looks I might add), meaning a new bull market has been here for a while. Take another look at the great Yogi quote above, as someone can get whatever they want probably when talking about bear and bull markets.
None the less, what exactly does a 20% move higher off a bear market low really mean? The good news is future returns are quite strong.
We found 13 times that stocks soared at least 20% off a 52-week low and 10 times the lows were indeed in and not violated. The only times it didn’t work? Twice during the tech bubble implosion and once during the Financial Crisis. In other words, some of the truly worst times to be invested in stocks. But the other 10 times, once there was a 20% gain, the lows were in and in most cases, higher prices were soon coming. This chart does a nice job of showing this concept, with the red dots the times new lows were still yet to come after a 20% bounce.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s a table with all the breakdowns. A year later stocks were down only once and that was during the 2001/2002 bear market, with the average gain a year after a 20% bounce at a very impressive 17.7%. It is worth noting that the one- and three-month returns aren’t anything special, probably because some type of consolidation would be expected after surges higher, but six months and a year later are quite strong.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As we’ve been saying this full year, we continue to expect stocks to do well this year and the upward move is firmly in place and studies like this do little to change our opinion.

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 9th, 2023

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/11/23

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
($ADBE $ORCL $KR $ACB $ATEX $ITI $LEN $MPAA $JBL $ECX $POWW $HITI $MMMB $CGNT $WLY $RFIL)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
(NONE.)
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 6.12.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Monday 6.12.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 6.13.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Tuesday 6.13.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.14.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.14.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.15.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.15.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 6.16.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!]())
(NONE.)

Friday 6.16.23 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!

I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead EarningsWhispers. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to EarningsWhispers [link] [comments]


2023.06.09 23:28 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023

Good Friday evening to all of you here on FinancialMarket! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023.

S&P 500 notches fourth straight positive week, touches highest level since August: Live updates - (Source)

The S&P 500 rose slightly Friday, touching the 4,300 level for the first time since August 2022 as investors looked ahead to upcoming inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s latest policy announcement.
The broad-market index gained 0.11%, closing at 4,298.86. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.16% to end at 13,259.14. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded up 43.17 points, or 0.13%, closing at 33,876.78. It was the 30-stock Dow’s fourth consecutive positive day.
For the week, the S&P 500 was up 0.39%. This was the broad-market index’s fourth straight winning week — a feat it last accomplished in August. The Nasdaq was up about 0.14%, posting its seventh straight winning week — its first streak of that length since November 2019. The Dow advanced 0.34%.
Investors were encouraged by signs that a broader swath of stocks, including small-cap equities, was participating in the recent rally. The Russell 2000 was down slightly on the day, but notched a weekly gain of 1.9%.
“It’s the first time in a while where investors seem to be feeling a greater sense of certainty. And we think that’s been a turning point from what had been more of a bearish cautious sentiment,” said Greg Bassuk, CEO at AXS Investments.
“We think that as we walk through these next few weeks, that will be increasingly clear that the economy is more resilient than folks have given it credit for the last six months,” said Scott Ladner, chief investment officer at Horizon Investments. “That will sort of dawn on people that small-caps and cyclicals probably have a reasonable shot to play catch up.”
The market is also looking toward next week’s consumer price index numbers and the Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Markets are currently anticipating a more than 71% probability the central bank will pause on rate hikes at the June meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

June’s Quad Witching Options Expiration Riddled With Volatility

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The second Triple Witching Week (Quadruple Witching if you prefer) of the year brings on some volatile trading with losses frequently exceeding gains. NASDAQ has the weakest record on the first trading day of the week. Triple-Witching Friday is usually better, S&P 500 has been up 12 of the last 20 years, but down 6 of the last 8.
Full-week performance is choppy as well, littered with greater than 1% moves in both directions. The week after June’s Triple-Witching Day is horrendous. This week has experienced DJIA losses in 27 of the last 33 years with an average performance of –0.81%. S&P 500 and NASDAQ have fared better during the week after over the same 33-year span. S&P 500’s averaged –0.46%. NASDAQ has averaged +0.03%. 2022’s sizable gains during the week after improve historical average performance notably.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

A New Bull Market: What’s Driving It?

The S&P 500 finally closed 20% above its October 12th (2022) closing low. This puts the index in “official” bull market territory.
Of course, if you had been reading or listening to Ryan on our Facts vs Feelings podcast, you’d have heard him say that October 12th was the low. He actually wrote a piece titled “Why Stocks Likely Just Bottomed” on October 19th!
The S&P 500 Index fell 25% from its peak on January 3rd, 2022 through October 12th. The subsequent 20% gain still puts it 10% below the prior peak. This does get to “math of volatility”. The index would need to gain 33% from its low to regain that level. This is a reason why it’s always better to lose less, is because you need to gain less to get back to even.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
So, what’s next? The good news is that future returns are strong. In his latest piece, Ryan wrote that out of 13 times when stocks rose 20% off a 52-week low, 10 of those times the lows were not violated. The average return 12 months later was close to 18%. The only time we didn’t see a gain was in the 2001-2002 bear market.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
** Digging into the return drivers**
It’s interesting to look at what’s been driving returns over the past year. This can help us think about what may lie ahead. The question was prompted by our friend, Sam Ro’s latest piece on the bull market breakout. He wrote that earnings haven’t been as bad as expected. More importantly, prospects have actually been improving.
The chart below shows earnings expectations for the S&P 500 over the next 12 months. You can see how it rose in the first half of 2022, before collapsing over the second half of the year. The collapse continued into January of this year. But since then, earnings expectations have steadily risen. In fact, they’ve accelerated higher since mid-April, after the last earnings season started. Currently, they’re higher than where we started the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Backing up a bit: we can break apart the price return of a stock (or index) into two components:
  • Earnings growth
  • Valuation multiple growth
I decomposed annual S&P 500 returns from 2020 – 2023 (through June 8th) into these two components. The chart below shows how these added up to the total return for each year. It also includes:
  • The bear market pullback from January 3rd, 2022, through October 12th, 2022
  • And the 20% rally from the low through June 8th, 2023
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
You can see how multiple changes have dominated the swing in returns.
The notable exception is 2021, when the S&P 500 return was propelled by earnings growth. In contrast, the 2022 pullback was entirely attributed to multiple contraction. Earnings made a positive contribution in 2022.
Now, multiple contraction is not surprising given the rapid change in rates, as the Federal Reserve (Fed) looked to get on top of inflation. However, they are close to the end of rate hikes, and so that’s no longer a big drag on multiples.
Consequently, multiple growth has pulled the index higher this year. You can see how multiple contraction basically drove the pullback in the Index during the bear market, through the low. But since then, multiples have expanded, pretty much driving the 20% gain.
Here’s a more dynamic picture of the S&P 500’s cumulative price return action from January 3rd, 2022, through June 8th, 2023. The chart also shows the contribution from earnings and multiple growth. As you can see, earnings have been fairly steady, rising 4% over the entire period. However, the swing in multiples is what drove the price return volatility.
Multiples contracted by 14%, and when combined with 4% earnings growth, you experienced the index return of -10%.
What next?
As I pointed out above, the problem for stocks last year was multiple contraction, which was driven by a rapid surge in interest rates.
The good news is that we’re probably close to end of rate hikes. The Fed may go ahead with just one more rate hike (in July), which is not much within the context of the 5%-point increase in rates that they implemented over the past year.
Our view is that rates are likely to remain where they are for a while. But rates are unlikely to rise from 5% to 10%, or even 7%, unless we get another major inflation shock.
This means a major obstacle that hindered stocks last year is dissipating. The removal of this headwind is yet another positive factor for stocks as we look ahead into the second half of the year.

Why Low Volatility Isn’t Bearish

“There is no such thing as average when it comes to the stock market or investing.” -Ryan Detrick
You might have heard by now, but the CBOE Volatility Index (better known as the VIX) made a new 52-week low earlier this week and closed beneath 14 for the first time in more than three years. This has many in the financial media clamoring that ‘the VIX is low and this is bearish’.
They have been telling us (incorrectly) that only five stocks have been going up and this was bearish, that a recession was right around the corner, that the yield curve being inverted was bearish, that M2 money supply YoY tanking was bearish, and now we have the VIX being low is bearish. We’ve disagreed with all of these worries and now we take issue with a low VIX as being bearish.
What exactly is the VIX you ask? I’d suggest reading this summary from Investopedia for a full explanation, but it is simply how much option players are willing to pay up for potential volatility over the coming 30 days. If they sense volatility, they will pay up for insurance. What you might know is that when the VIX is high (say above 30), that means the market tends to be more volatile and likely in a bearish phase. Versus a low VIX (say sub 15) historically has lead to some really nice bull markets and small amounts of volatility.
Back to your regularly scheduled blog now.
The last time the VIX went this long above 14 was for more than five years, ending in August 2012. You know what happened next that time? The S&P 500 added more than 18% the following 12 months. Yes, this is a sample size of one, but I think it shows that a VIX sub 14 by itself isn’t the end of the world.
One of the key concepts around volatility is trends can last for years. What I mean by this is for years the VIX can be high and for years it can be low. Since 1990, the average VIX was 19.7, but it rarely trades around that average. Take another look at the quote I’ve used many times above, as averages aren’t so average. This chart is one I’ve used for years now and I think we could be on the cusp of another low volatility regime. The red areas are times the VIX was consistently above 20, while the yellow were beneath 20. What you also need to know is those red periods usually took place during bear markets and very volatile markets, while the yellow periods were hallmarked by low volatility and higher equity prices. Are we about to enter a new period of lower volatility? No one of course knows, but if this is about to happen (which is my vote), it is another reason to think that higher equity prices (our base case as we remain overweight equities in our Carson House Views) will be coming.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lastly, I’ll leave you on this potentially bullish point. We like to use relative ratios to get a feel for how one asset is going versus to another. We always want to be in assets or sectors that are showing relative strength, while avoiding areas that are weak.
Well, stocks just broke out to new highs relative to bonds once again. After a period of consolidation during the bear market last year, now we have stocks firmly in the driver seat relative to bonds. This is another reason we remain overweight stocks currently and continue to expect stocks to do better than bonds going forward.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Our Leading Economic Index Says the Economy is Not in a Recession

We’ve been writing since the end of last year about how we believe the economy can avoid a recession in 2023, including in our 2023 outlook. This has run contrary to most other economists’ predictions. Interestingly, the tide has been shifting recently, as we’ve gotten a string of relatively stronger economic data. More so after the latest payrolls data, which surprised again.
One challenge with economic data is that we get so many of them, and a lot of times they can send conflicting signals. It can be hard to parse through all of it and come up with an updated view of the economy after every data release.
One approach is to combine these into a single indicator, i.e. a “leading economic index” (LEI). It’s “leading” because the idea is to give you an early warning signal about economic turning points.
Simply put, it tells you what the economy is doing today and what it is likely to do in the near future.
The most popular LEI points to recession
One of the most widely used LEI’s is released by the Conference Board, and it currently points to recession. As you can see in the chart below, the Conference Board’s LEI is highly correlated with GDP growth – the chart shows year-over-year change in both.
You can see how the index started to fall ahead of the 2001 and 2008 recession (shaded areas). The 2020 pandemic recession was an anomaly since it hit so suddenly. In any case, using an LEI means we didn’t have to wait for GDP data (which are released well after a quarter ends) to tell us whether the economy was close to, or in a recession.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As you probably noticed above, the LEI is down 8% year-over-year, signaling a recession over the next 12 months. It’s been pointing to a recession since last fall, with the index declining for 13 straight months through April.
Quoting the Conference Board:
“The Conference Board forecasts a contraction of economic activity starting in Q2 leading to a mild recession by mid-2023.”
Safe to say, we’re close to mid-2023 and there’s no sign of a recession yet.
What’s inside the LEI
The Conference Board’s LEI has 10 components of which,
  • 3 are financial market indicators, including the S&P 500, and make up 22% of the index
  • 4 measure business and manufacturing activity (44%)
  • 1 measures housing activity (3%)
  • 2 are related to the consumer, including the labor market (31%)
You can see how these indicators have pulled the index down by 4.4% over the past 6 months, and by -0.6% in April alone.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s the thing. This popular LEI is premised on the fact that the manufacturing sector, and business activity/sentiment, is a leading indicator of the economy. This worked well in the past but is probably not indicative of what’s happening in the economy right now. For one thing, the manufacturing sector makes up just about 11% of GDP.
Consumption makes up 68% of the economy, and we believe it’s important to capture that.
In fact, consumption was strong in Q1 and even at the start of Q2, thanks to rising real incomes. Housing is also making a turnaround and should no longer be a drag on the economy going forward (as it has been over the past 8 quarters). The Federal Reserve (Fed) is also close to being done with rate hikes. Plus, as my colleague, Ryan Detrick pointed out, the stock market’s turned around and is close to entering a new bull market.
Obviously, there are a lot of data points that we look at and one way we parse through all of it is by constructing our own leading economic index.
An LEI that better reflects the US economy
We believe our proprietary LEI better captures the dynamics of the US economy. It was developed a decade ago and is a key input into our asset allocation decisions.
In contrast to the Conference Board’s measure, it includes 20+ components, including,
  • Consumer-related indicators (make up 50% of the index)
  • Housing activity (18%)
  • Business and manufacturing activity (23%)
  • Financial markets (9%)
Just as an example, the consumer-related data includes unemployment benefit claims, weekly hours worked, and vehicle sales. Housing includes indicators like building permits and new home sales.
The chart below shows how our LEI has moved through time – capturing whether the economy is growing below trend, on-trend (a value close to zero), or above trend. Like the Conference Board’s measure, it is able to capture major turning points in the business cycle. It declined ahead of the actual start of the 2011 and 2008 recessions.
As of April, our index is indicating that the economy is growing right along trend.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Last year, the index signaled that the economy was growing below trend, and that the risk of a recession was high.
Note that it didn’t point to an actual recession. Just that “risk” of one was higher than normal. In fact, our LEI held close to the lows we saw over the last decade, especially in 2011 and 2016 (after which the economy, and even the stock market, recovered).
The following chart captures a close-up view of the last 3 and half years, which includes the Covid pullback and subsequent recovery. The contribution from the 4 major categories is also shown. You can see how the consumer has remained strong over the past year – in fact, consumer indicators have been stronger this year than in late 2022.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The main risk of a recession last year was due to the Fed raising rates as fast as they did, which adversely impacted housing, financial markets, and business activity.
The good news is that these sectors are improving even as consumer strength continues. The improvement in housing is notable. Additionally, the drag from financial conditions is beginning to ease as we think that the Federal Reserve gets closer to the end of rate hikes, and markets rally.
Putting the Puzzle Together
Another novel part of our approach is that we have an LEI like the one for the US for more than 25 other countries. Each one is custom built to capture the dynamics of those economies. The individual country LEIs are also subsequently rolled up to a global index to give us a picture of the global economy, as shown below.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
I want to emphasize that we do not rely solely on this as the one and only input into our asset allocation, portfolio and risk management decisions. While it is an important component that encapsulates a lot of significant information, it is just one piece of the puzzle. Our process also has other pillars such as policy (both monetary and fiscal), technical factors, and valuations.
We believe it’s important to put all these pieces together, kind of like putting together a puzzle, to understand what’s happening in the economy and markets, and position portfolios accordingly.
Putting together a puzzle is both a mechanistic and artistic process. The mechanistic aspect involves sorting the pieces, finding edges, and matching colors, etc. It requires a logical and methodical approach, and in our process the LEI is key to that.
However, there is an artistic element as well. As we assemble the pieces together, a larger picture gradually emerges. You can make creative decisions about how each piece fits within the overall picture. Within the context of portfolio management, that takes a diverse range of experience. Which is the core strength of our Investment Research Team.

Welcome to the New Bull Market

“If you torture numbers enough, they will tell you anything.” -Yogi Berra, Yankee great and Hall of Fame catcher
Don’t shoot the messenger, but historically, it is widely considered a new bull market once stocks are more than 20% off their bear market lows. This is similar to when stocks are down 20% they are in a bear market. Well, the S&P 500 is less than one percent away from this 20% threshold, so get ready to hear a lot about it when it eventually happens.
I’m not crazy about this concept, as we’ve been in the camp that the bear market ended in October for months now (we started to say it in late October, getting some really odd looks I might add), meaning a new bull market has been here for a while. Take another look at the great Yogi quote above, as someone can get whatever they want probably when talking about bear and bull markets.
None the less, what exactly does a 20% move higher off a bear market low really mean? The good news is future returns are quite strong.
We found 13 times that stocks soared at least 20% off a 52-week low and 10 times the lows were indeed in and not violated. The only times it didn’t work? Twice during the tech bubble implosion and once during the Financial Crisis. In other words, some of the truly worst times to be invested in stocks. But the other 10 times, once there was a 20% gain, the lows were in and in most cases, higher prices were soon coming. This chart does a nice job of showing this concept, with the red dots the times new lows were still yet to come after a 20% bounce.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s a table with all the breakdowns. A year later stocks were down only once and that was during the 2001/2002 bear market, with the average gain a year after a 20% bounce at a very impressive 17.7%. It is worth noting that the one- and three-month returns aren’t anything special, probably because some type of consolidation would be expected after surges higher, but six months and a year later are quite strong.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As we’ve been saying this full year, we continue to expect stocks to do well this year and the upward move is firmly in place and studies like this do little to change our opinion.

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 9th, 2023

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/11/23

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
($ADBE $ORCL $KR $ACB $ATEX $ITI $LEN $MPAA $JBL $ECX $POWW $HITI $MMMB $CGNT $WLY $RFIL)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
(NONE.)
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 6.12.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Monday 6.12.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 6.13.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Tuesday 6.13.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.14.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.14.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.15.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.15.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 6.16.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!]())
(NONE.)

Friday 6.16.23 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!

I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead FinancialMarket. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to FinancialMarket [link] [comments]


2023.06.09 23:27 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023

Good Friday evening to all of you here on stocks! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023.

S&P 500 notches fourth straight positive week, touches highest level since August: Live updates - (Source)

The S&P 500 rose slightly Friday, touching the 4,300 level for the first time since August 2022 as investors looked ahead to upcoming inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s latest policy announcement.
The broad-market index gained 0.11%, closing at 4,298.86. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.16% to end at 13,259.14. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded up 43.17 points, or 0.13%, closing at 33,876.78. It was the 30-stock Dow’s fourth consecutive positive day.
For the week, the S&P 500 was up 0.39%. This was the broad-market index’s fourth straight winning week — a feat it last accomplished in August. The Nasdaq was up about 0.14%, posting its seventh straight winning week — its first streak of that length since November 2019. The Dow advanced 0.34%.
Investors were encouraged by signs that a broader swath of stocks, including small-cap equities, was participating in the recent rally. The Russell 2000 was down slightly on the day, but notched a weekly gain of 1.9%.
“It’s the first time in a while where investors seem to be feeling a greater sense of certainty. And we think that’s been a turning point from what had been more of a bearish cautious sentiment,” said Greg Bassuk, CEO at AXS Investments.
“We think that as we walk through these next few weeks, that will be increasingly clear that the economy is more resilient than folks have given it credit for the last six months,” said Scott Ladner, chief investment officer at Horizon Investments. “That will sort of dawn on people that small-caps and cyclicals probably have a reasonable shot to play catch up.”
The market is also looking toward next week’s consumer price index numbers and the Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Markets are currently anticipating a more than 71% probability the central bank will pause on rate hikes at the June meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

June’s Quad Witching Options Expiration Riddled With Volatility

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The second Triple Witching Week (Quadruple Witching if you prefer) of the year brings on some volatile trading with losses frequently exceeding gains. NASDAQ has the weakest record on the first trading day of the week. Triple-Witching Friday is usually better, S&P 500 has been up 12 of the last 20 years, but down 6 of the last 8.
Full-week performance is choppy as well, littered with greater than 1% moves in both directions. The week after June’s Triple-Witching Day is horrendous. This week has experienced DJIA losses in 27 of the last 33 years with an average performance of –0.81%. S&P 500 and NASDAQ have fared better during the week after over the same 33-year span. S&P 500’s averaged –0.46%. NASDAQ has averaged +0.03%. 2022’s sizable gains during the week after improve historical average performance notably.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

A New Bull Market: What’s Driving It?

The S&P 500 finally closed 20% above its October 12th (2022) closing low. This puts the index in “official” bull market territory.
Of course, if you had been reading or listening to Ryan on our Facts vs Feelings podcast, you’d have heard him say that October 12th was the low. He actually wrote a piece titled “Why Stocks Likely Just Bottomed” on October 19th!
The S&P 500 Index fell 25% from its peak on January 3rd, 2022 through October 12th. The subsequent 20% gain still puts it 10% below the prior peak. This does get to “math of volatility”. The index would need to gain 33% from its low to regain that level. This is a reason why it’s always better to lose less, is because you need to gain less to get back to even.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
So, what’s next? The good news is that future returns are strong. In his latest piece, Ryan wrote that out of 13 times when stocks rose 20% off a 52-week low, 10 of those times the lows were not violated. The average return 12 months later was close to 18%. The only time we didn’t see a gain was in the 2001-2002 bear market.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
** Digging into the return drivers**
It’s interesting to look at what’s been driving returns over the past year. This can help us think about what may lie ahead. The question was prompted by our friend, Sam Ro’s latest piece on the bull market breakout. He wrote that earnings haven’t been as bad as expected. More importantly, prospects have actually been improving.
The chart below shows earnings expectations for the S&P 500 over the next 12 months. You can see how it rose in the first half of 2022, before collapsing over the second half of the year. The collapse continued into January of this year. But since then, earnings expectations have steadily risen. In fact, they’ve accelerated higher since mid-April, after the last earnings season started. Currently, they’re higher than where we started the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Backing up a bit: we can break apart the price return of a stock (or index) into two components:
  • Earnings growth
  • Valuation multiple growth
I decomposed annual S&P 500 returns from 2020 – 2023 (through June 8th) into these two components. The chart below shows how these added up to the total return for each year. It also includes:
  • The bear market pullback from January 3rd, 2022, through October 12th, 2022
  • And the 20% rally from the low through June 8th, 2023
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
You can see how multiple changes have dominated the swing in returns.
The notable exception is 2021, when the S&P 500 return was propelled by earnings growth. In contrast, the 2022 pullback was entirely attributed to multiple contraction. Earnings made a positive contribution in 2022.
Now, multiple contraction is not surprising given the rapid change in rates, as the Federal Reserve (Fed) looked to get on top of inflation. However, they are close to the end of rate hikes, and so that’s no longer a big drag on multiples.
Consequently, multiple growth has pulled the index higher this year. You can see how multiple contraction basically drove the pullback in the Index during the bear market, through the low. But since then, multiples have expanded, pretty much driving the 20% gain.
Here’s a more dynamic picture of the S&P 500’s cumulative price return action from January 3rd, 2022, through June 8th, 2023. The chart also shows the contribution from earnings and multiple growth. As you can see, earnings have been fairly steady, rising 4% over the entire period. However, the swing in multiples is what drove the price return volatility.
Multiples contracted by 14%, and when combined with 4% earnings growth, you experienced the index return of -10%.
What next?
As I pointed out above, the problem for stocks last year was multiple contraction, which was driven by a rapid surge in interest rates.
The good news is that we’re probably close to end of rate hikes. The Fed may go ahead with just one more rate hike (in July), which is not much within the context of the 5%-point increase in rates that they implemented over the past year.
Our view is that rates are likely to remain where they are for a while. But rates are unlikely to rise from 5% to 10%, or even 7%, unless we get another major inflation shock.
This means a major obstacle that hindered stocks last year is dissipating. The removal of this headwind is yet another positive factor for stocks as we look ahead into the second half of the year.

Why Low Volatility Isn’t Bearish

“There is no such thing as average when it comes to the stock market or investing.” -Ryan Detrick
You might have heard by now, but the CBOE Volatility Index (better known as the VIX) made a new 52-week low earlier this week and closed beneath 14 for the first time in more than three years. This has many in the financial media clamoring that ‘the VIX is low and this is bearish’.
They have been telling us (incorrectly) that only five stocks have been going up and this was bearish, that a recession was right around the corner, that the yield curve being inverted was bearish, that M2 money supply YoY tanking was bearish, and now we have the VIX being low is bearish. We’ve disagreed with all of these worries and now we take issue with a low VIX as being bearish.
What exactly is the VIX you ask? I’d suggest reading this summary from Investopedia for a full explanation, but it is simply how much option players are willing to pay up for potential volatility over the coming 30 days. If they sense volatility, they will pay up for insurance. What you might know is that when the VIX is high (say above 30), that means the market tends to be more volatile and likely in a bearish phase. Versus a low VIX (say sub 15) historically has lead to some really nice bull markets and small amounts of volatility.
Back to your regularly scheduled blog now.
The last time the VIX went this long above 14 was for more than five years, ending in August 2012. You know what happened next that time? The S&P 500 added more than 18% the following 12 months. Yes, this is a sample size of one, but I think it shows that a VIX sub 14 by itself isn’t the end of the world.
One of the key concepts around volatility is trends can last for years. What I mean by this is for years the VIX can be high and for years it can be low. Since 1990, the average VIX was 19.7, but it rarely trades around that average. Take another look at the quote I’ve used many times above, as averages aren’t so average. This chart is one I’ve used for years now and I think we could be on the cusp of another low volatility regime. The red areas are times the VIX was consistently above 20, while the yellow were beneath 20. What you also need to know is those red periods usually took place during bear markets and very volatile markets, while the yellow periods were hallmarked by low volatility and higher equity prices. Are we about to enter a new period of lower volatility? No one of course knows, but if this is about to happen (which is my vote), it is another reason to think that higher equity prices (our base case as we remain overweight equities in our Carson House Views) will be coming.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lastly, I’ll leave you on this potentially bullish point. We like to use relative ratios to get a feel for how one asset is going versus to another. We always want to be in assets or sectors that are showing relative strength, while avoiding areas that are weak.
Well, stocks just broke out to new highs relative to bonds once again. After a period of consolidation during the bear market last year, now we have stocks firmly in the driver seat relative to bonds. This is another reason we remain overweight stocks currently and continue to expect stocks to do better than bonds going forward.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Our Leading Economic Index Says the Economy is Not in a Recession

We’ve been writing since the end of last year about how we believe the economy can avoid a recession in 2023, including in our 2023 outlook. This has run contrary to most other economists’ predictions. Interestingly, the tide has been shifting recently, as we’ve gotten a string of relatively stronger economic data. More so after the latest payrolls data, which surprised again.
One challenge with economic data is that we get so many of them, and a lot of times they can send conflicting signals. It can be hard to parse through all of it and come up with an updated view of the economy after every data release.
One approach is to combine these into a single indicator, i.e. a “leading economic index” (LEI). It’s “leading” because the idea is to give you an early warning signal about economic turning points.
Simply put, it tells you what the economy is doing today and what it is likely to do in the near future.
The most popular LEI points to recession
One of the most widely used LEI’s is released by the Conference Board, and it currently points to recession. As you can see in the chart below, the Conference Board’s LEI is highly correlated with GDP growth – the chart shows year-over-year change in both.
You can see how the index started to fall ahead of the 2001 and 2008 recession (shaded areas). The 2020 pandemic recession was an anomaly since it hit so suddenly. In any case, using an LEI means we didn’t have to wait for GDP data (which are released well after a quarter ends) to tell us whether the economy was close to, or in a recession.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As you probably noticed above, the LEI is down 8% year-over-year, signaling a recession over the next 12 months. It’s been pointing to a recession since last fall, with the index declining for 13 straight months through April.
Quoting the Conference Board:
“The Conference Board forecasts a contraction of economic activity starting in Q2 leading to a mild recession by mid-2023.”
Safe to say, we’re close to mid-2023 and there’s no sign of a recession yet.
What’s inside the LEI
The Conference Board’s LEI has 10 components of which,
  • 3 are financial market indicators, including the S&P 500, and make up 22% of the index
  • 4 measure business and manufacturing activity (44%)
  • 1 measures housing activity (3%)
  • 2 are related to the consumer, including the labor market (31%)
You can see how these indicators have pulled the index down by 4.4% over the past 6 months, and by -0.6% in April alone.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s the thing. This popular LEI is premised on the fact that the manufacturing sector, and business activity/sentiment, is a leading indicator of the economy. This worked well in the past but is probably not indicative of what’s happening in the economy right now. For one thing, the manufacturing sector makes up just about 11% of GDP.
Consumption makes up 68% of the economy, and we believe it’s important to capture that.
In fact, consumption was strong in Q1 and even at the start of Q2, thanks to rising real incomes. Housing is also making a turnaround and should no longer be a drag on the economy going forward (as it has been over the past 8 quarters). The Federal Reserve (Fed) is also close to being done with rate hikes. Plus, as my colleague, Ryan Detrick pointed out, the stock market’s turned around and is close to entering a new bull market.
Obviously, there are a lot of data points that we look at and one way we parse through all of it is by constructing our own leading economic index.
An LEI that better reflects the US economy
We believe our proprietary LEI better captures the dynamics of the US economy. It was developed a decade ago and is a key input into our asset allocation decisions.
In contrast to the Conference Board’s measure, it includes 20+ components, including,
  • Consumer-related indicators (make up 50% of the index)
  • Housing activity (18%)
  • Business and manufacturing activity (23%)
  • Financial markets (9%)
Just as an example, the consumer-related data includes unemployment benefit claims, weekly hours worked, and vehicle sales. Housing includes indicators like building permits and new home sales.
The chart below shows how our LEI has moved through time – capturing whether the economy is growing below trend, on-trend (a value close to zero), or above trend. Like the Conference Board’s measure, it is able to capture major turning points in the business cycle. It declined ahead of the actual start of the 2011 and 2008 recessions.
As of April, our index is indicating that the economy is growing right along trend.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Last year, the index signaled that the economy was growing below trend, and that the risk of a recession was high.
Note that it didn’t point to an actual recession. Just that “risk” of one was higher than normal. In fact, our LEI held close to the lows we saw over the last decade, especially in 2011 and 2016 (after which the economy, and even the stock market, recovered).
The following chart captures a close-up view of the last 3 and half years, which includes the Covid pullback and subsequent recovery. The contribution from the 4 major categories is also shown. You can see how the consumer has remained strong over the past year – in fact, consumer indicators have been stronger this year than in late 2022.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The main risk of a recession last year was due to the Fed raising rates as fast as they did, which adversely impacted housing, financial markets, and business activity.
The good news is that these sectors are improving even as consumer strength continues. The improvement in housing is notable. Additionally, the drag from financial conditions is beginning to ease as we think that the Federal Reserve gets closer to the end of rate hikes, and markets rally.
Putting the Puzzle Together
Another novel part of our approach is that we have an LEI like the one for the US for more than 25 other countries. Each one is custom built to capture the dynamics of those economies. The individual country LEIs are also subsequently rolled up to a global index to give us a picture of the global economy, as shown below.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
I want to emphasize that we do not rely solely on this as the one and only input into our asset allocation, portfolio and risk management decisions. While it is an important component that encapsulates a lot of significant information, it is just one piece of the puzzle. Our process also has other pillars such as policy (both monetary and fiscal), technical factors, and valuations.
We believe it’s important to put all these pieces together, kind of like putting together a puzzle, to understand what’s happening in the economy and markets, and position portfolios accordingly.
Putting together a puzzle is both a mechanistic and artistic process. The mechanistic aspect involves sorting the pieces, finding edges, and matching colors, etc. It requires a logical and methodical approach, and in our process the LEI is key to that.
However, there is an artistic element as well. As we assemble the pieces together, a larger picture gradually emerges. You can make creative decisions about how each piece fits within the overall picture. Within the context of portfolio management, that takes a diverse range of experience. Which is the core strength of our Investment Research Team.

Welcome to the New Bull Market

“If you torture numbers enough, they will tell you anything.” -Yogi Berra, Yankee great and Hall of Fame catcher
Don’t shoot the messenger, but historically, it is widely considered a new bull market once stocks are more than 20% off their bear market lows. This is similar to when stocks are down 20% they are in a bear market. Well, the S&P 500 is less than one percent away from this 20% threshold, so get ready to hear a lot about it when it eventually happens.
I’m not crazy about this concept, as we’ve been in the camp that the bear market ended in October for months now (we started to say it in late October, getting some really odd looks I might add), meaning a new bull market has been here for a while. Take another look at the great Yogi quote above, as someone can get whatever they want probably when talking about bear and bull markets.
None the less, what exactly does a 20% move higher off a bear market low really mean? The good news is future returns are quite strong.
We found 13 times that stocks soared at least 20% off a 52-week low and 10 times the lows were indeed in and not violated. The only times it didn’t work? Twice during the tech bubble implosion and once during the Financial Crisis. In other words, some of the truly worst times to be invested in stocks. But the other 10 times, once there was a 20% gain, the lows were in and in most cases, higher prices were soon coming. This chart does a nice job of showing this concept, with the red dots the times new lows were still yet to come after a 20% bounce.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s a table with all the breakdowns. A year later stocks were down only once and that was during the 2001/2002 bear market, with the average gain a year after a 20% bounce at a very impressive 17.7%. It is worth noting that the one- and three-month returns aren’t anything special, probably because some type of consolidation would be expected after surges higher, but six months and a year later are quite strong.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As we’ve been saying this full year, we continue to expect stocks to do well this year and the upward move is firmly in place and studies like this do little to change our opinion.
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
(NONE.)
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 6.12.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Monday 6.12.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 6.13.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Tuesday 6.13.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.14.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.14.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.15.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.15.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 6.16.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!]())
(NONE.)

Friday 6.16.23 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead stocks. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to stocks [link] [comments]


2023.06.09 23:25 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023

Good Friday evening to all of you here on StockMarketChat! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023.

S&P 500 notches fourth straight positive week, touches highest level since August: Live updates - (Source)

The S&P 500 rose slightly Friday, touching the 4,300 level for the first time since August 2022 as investors looked ahead to upcoming inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s latest policy announcement.
The broad-market index gained 0.11%, closing at 4,298.86. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.16% to end at 13,259.14. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded up 43.17 points, or 0.13%, closing at 33,876.78. It was the 30-stock Dow’s fourth consecutive positive day.
For the week, the S&P 500 was up 0.39%. This was the broad-market index’s fourth straight winning week — a feat it last accomplished in August. The Nasdaq was up about 0.14%, posting its seventh straight winning week — its first streak of that length since November 2019. The Dow advanced 0.34%.
Investors were encouraged by signs that a broader swath of stocks, including small-cap equities, was participating in the recent rally. The Russell 2000 was down slightly on the day, but notched a weekly gain of 1.9%.
“It’s the first time in a while where investors seem to be feeling a greater sense of certainty. And we think that’s been a turning point from what had been more of a bearish cautious sentiment,” said Greg Bassuk, CEO at AXS Investments.
“We think that as we walk through these next few weeks, that will be increasingly clear that the economy is more resilient than folks have given it credit for the last six months,” said Scott Ladner, chief investment officer at Horizon Investments. “That will sort of dawn on people that small-caps and cyclicals probably have a reasonable shot to play catch up.”
The market is also looking toward next week’s consumer price index numbers and the Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Markets are currently anticipating a more than 71% probability the central bank will pause on rate hikes at the June meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

June’s Quad Witching Options Expiration Riddled With Volatility

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The second Triple Witching Week (Quadruple Witching if you prefer) of the year brings on some volatile trading with losses frequently exceeding gains. NASDAQ has the weakest record on the first trading day of the week. Triple-Witching Friday is usually better, S&P 500 has been up 12 of the last 20 years, but down 6 of the last 8.
Full-week performance is choppy as well, littered with greater than 1% moves in both directions. The week after June’s Triple-Witching Day is horrendous. This week has experienced DJIA losses in 27 of the last 33 years with an average performance of –0.81%. S&P 500 and NASDAQ have fared better during the week after over the same 33-year span. S&P 500’s averaged –0.46%. NASDAQ has averaged +0.03%. 2022’s sizable gains during the week after improve historical average performance notably.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

A New Bull Market: What’s Driving It?

The S&P 500 finally closed 20% above its October 12th (2022) closing low. This puts the index in “official” bull market territory.
Of course, if you had been reading or listening to Ryan on our Facts vs Feelings podcast, you’d have heard him say that October 12th was the low. He actually wrote a piece titled “Why Stocks Likely Just Bottomed” on October 19th!
The S&P 500 Index fell 25% from its peak on January 3rd, 2022 through October 12th. The subsequent 20% gain still puts it 10% below the prior peak. This does get to “math of volatility”. The index would need to gain 33% from its low to regain that level. This is a reason why it’s always better to lose less, is because you need to gain less to get back to even.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
So, what’s next? The good news is that future returns are strong. In his latest piece, Ryan wrote that out of 13 times when stocks rose 20% off a 52-week low, 10 of those times the lows were not violated. The average return 12 months later was close to 18%. The only time we didn’t see a gain was in the 2001-2002 bear market.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
** Digging into the return drivers**
It’s interesting to look at what’s been driving returns over the past year. This can help us think about what may lie ahead. The question was prompted by our friend, Sam Ro’s latest piece on the bull market breakout. He wrote that earnings haven’t been as bad as expected. More importantly, prospects have actually been improving.
The chart below shows earnings expectations for the S&P 500 over the next 12 months. You can see how it rose in the first half of 2022, before collapsing over the second half of the year. The collapse continued into January of this year. But since then, earnings expectations have steadily risen. In fact, they’ve accelerated higher since mid-April, after the last earnings season started. Currently, they’re higher than where we started the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Backing up a bit: we can break apart the price return of a stock (or index) into two components:
  • Earnings growth
  • Valuation multiple growth
I decomposed annual S&P 500 returns from 2020 – 2023 (through June 8th) into these two components. The chart below shows how these added up to the total return for each year. It also includes:
  • The bear market pullback from January 3rd, 2022, through October 12th, 2022
  • And the 20% rally from the low through June 8th, 2023
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
You can see how multiple changes have dominated the swing in returns.
The notable exception is 2021, when the S&P 500 return was propelled by earnings growth. In contrast, the 2022 pullback was entirely attributed to multiple contraction. Earnings made a positive contribution in 2022.
Now, multiple contraction is not surprising given the rapid change in rates, as the Federal Reserve (Fed) looked to get on top of inflation. However, they are close to the end of rate hikes, and so that’s no longer a big drag on multiples.
Consequently, multiple growth has pulled the index higher this year. You can see how multiple contraction basically drove the pullback in the Index during the bear market, through the low. But since then, multiples have expanded, pretty much driving the 20% gain.
Here’s a more dynamic picture of the S&P 500’s cumulative price return action from January 3rd, 2022, through June 8th, 2023. The chart also shows the contribution from earnings and multiple growth. As you can see, earnings have been fairly steady, rising 4% over the entire period. However, the swing in multiples is what drove the price return volatility.
Multiples contracted by 14%, and when combined with 4% earnings growth, you experienced the index return of -10%.
What next?
As I pointed out above, the problem for stocks last year was multiple contraction, which was driven by a rapid surge in interest rates.
The good news is that we’re probably close to end of rate hikes. The Fed may go ahead with just one more rate hike (in July), which is not much within the context of the 5%-point increase in rates that they implemented over the past year.
Our view is that rates are likely to remain where they are for a while. But rates are unlikely to rise from 5% to 10%, or even 7%, unless we get another major inflation shock.
This means a major obstacle that hindered stocks last year is dissipating. The removal of this headwind is yet another positive factor for stocks as we look ahead into the second half of the year.

Why Low Volatility Isn’t Bearish

“There is no such thing as average when it comes to the stock market or investing.” -Ryan Detrick
You might have heard by now, but the CBOE Volatility Index (better known as the VIX) made a new 52-week low earlier this week and closed beneath 14 for the first time in more than three years. This has many in the financial media clamoring that ‘the VIX is low and this is bearish’.
They have been telling us (incorrectly) that only five stocks have been going up and this was bearish, that a recession was right around the corner, that the yield curve being inverted was bearish, that M2 money supply YoY tanking was bearish, and now we have the VIX being low is bearish. We’ve disagreed with all of these worries and now we take issue with a low VIX as being bearish.
What exactly is the VIX you ask? I’d suggest reading this summary from Investopedia for a full explanation, but it is simply how much option players are willing to pay up for potential volatility over the coming 30 days. If they sense volatility, they will pay up for insurance. What you might know is that when the VIX is high (say above 30), that means the market tends to be more volatile and likely in a bearish phase. Versus a low VIX (say sub 15) historically has lead to some really nice bull markets and small amounts of volatility.
Back to your regularly scheduled blog now.
The last time the VIX went this long above 14 was for more than five years, ending in August 2012. You know what happened next that time? The S&P 500 added more than 18% the following 12 months. Yes, this is a sample size of one, but I think it shows that a VIX sub 14 by itself isn’t the end of the world.
One of the key concepts around volatility is trends can last for years. What I mean by this is for years the VIX can be high and for years it can be low. Since 1990, the average VIX was 19.7, but it rarely trades around that average. Take another look at the quote I’ve used many times above, as averages aren’t so average. This chart is one I’ve used for years now and I think we could be on the cusp of another low volatility regime. The red areas are times the VIX was consistently above 20, while the yellow were beneath 20. What you also need to know is those red periods usually took place during bear markets and very volatile markets, while the yellow periods were hallmarked by low volatility and higher equity prices. Are we about to enter a new period of lower volatility? No one of course knows, but if this is about to happen (which is my vote), it is another reason to think that higher equity prices (our base case as we remain overweight equities in our Carson House Views) will be coming.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lastly, I’ll leave you on this potentially bullish point. We like to use relative ratios to get a feel for how one asset is going versus to another. We always want to be in assets or sectors that are showing relative strength, while avoiding areas that are weak.
Well, stocks just broke out to new highs relative to bonds once again. After a period of consolidation during the bear market last year, now we have stocks firmly in the driver seat relative to bonds. This is another reason we remain overweight stocks currently and continue to expect stocks to do better than bonds going forward.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Our Leading Economic Index Says the Economy is Not in a Recession

We’ve been writing since the end of last year about how we believe the economy can avoid a recession in 2023, including in our 2023 outlook. This has run contrary to most other economists’ predictions. Interestingly, the tide has been shifting recently, as we’ve gotten a string of relatively stronger economic data. More so after the latest payrolls data, which surprised again.
One challenge with economic data is that we get so many of them, and a lot of times they can send conflicting signals. It can be hard to parse through all of it and come up with an updated view of the economy after every data release.
One approach is to combine these into a single indicator, i.e. a “leading economic index” (LEI). It’s “leading” because the idea is to give you an early warning signal about economic turning points.
Simply put, it tells you what the economy is doing today and what it is likely to do in the near future.
The most popular LEI points to recession
One of the most widely used LEI’s is released by the Conference Board, and it currently points to recession. As you can see in the chart below, the Conference Board’s LEI is highly correlated with GDP growth – the chart shows year-over-year change in both.
You can see how the index started to fall ahead of the 2001 and 2008 recession (shaded areas). The 2020 pandemic recession was an anomaly since it hit so suddenly. In any case, using an LEI means we didn’t have to wait for GDP data (which are released well after a quarter ends) to tell us whether the economy was close to, or in a recession.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As you probably noticed above, the LEI is down 8% year-over-year, signaling a recession over the next 12 months. It’s been pointing to a recession since last fall, with the index declining for 13 straight months through April.
Quoting the Conference Board:
“The Conference Board forecasts a contraction of economic activity starting in Q2 leading to a mild recession by mid-2023.”
Safe to say, we’re close to mid-2023 and there’s no sign of a recession yet.
What’s inside the LEI
The Conference Board’s LEI has 10 components of which,
  • 3 are financial market indicators, including the S&P 500, and make up 22% of the index
  • 4 measure business and manufacturing activity (44%)
  • 1 measures housing activity (3%)
  • 2 are related to the consumer, including the labor market (31%)
You can see how these indicators have pulled the index down by 4.4% over the past 6 months, and by -0.6% in April alone.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s the thing. This popular LEI is premised on the fact that the manufacturing sector, and business activity/sentiment, is a leading indicator of the economy. This worked well in the past but is probably not indicative of what’s happening in the economy right now. For one thing, the manufacturing sector makes up just about 11% of GDP.
Consumption makes up 68% of the economy, and we believe it’s important to capture that.
In fact, consumption was strong in Q1 and even at the start of Q2, thanks to rising real incomes. Housing is also making a turnaround and should no longer be a drag on the economy going forward (as it has been over the past 8 quarters). The Federal Reserve (Fed) is also close to being done with rate hikes. Plus, as my colleague, Ryan Detrick pointed out, the stock market’s turned around and is close to entering a new bull market.
Obviously, there are a lot of data points that we look at and one way we parse through all of it is by constructing our own leading economic index.
An LEI that better reflects the US economy
We believe our proprietary LEI better captures the dynamics of the US economy. It was developed a decade ago and is a key input into our asset allocation decisions.
In contrast to the Conference Board’s measure, it includes 20+ components, including,
  • Consumer-related indicators (make up 50% of the index)
  • Housing activity (18%)
  • Business and manufacturing activity (23%)
  • Financial markets (9%)
Just as an example, the consumer-related data includes unemployment benefit claims, weekly hours worked, and vehicle sales. Housing includes indicators like building permits and new home sales.
The chart below shows how our LEI has moved through time – capturing whether the economy is growing below trend, on-trend (a value close to zero), or above trend. Like the Conference Board’s measure, it is able to capture major turning points in the business cycle. It declined ahead of the actual start of the 2011 and 2008 recessions.
As of April, our index is indicating that the economy is growing right along trend.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Last year, the index signaled that the economy was growing below trend, and that the risk of a recession was high.
Note that it didn’t point to an actual recession. Just that “risk” of one was higher than normal. In fact, our LEI held close to the lows we saw over the last decade, especially in 2011 and 2016 (after which the economy, and even the stock market, recovered).
The following chart captures a close-up view of the last 3 and half years, which includes the Covid pullback and subsequent recovery. The contribution from the 4 major categories is also shown. You can see how the consumer has remained strong over the past year – in fact, consumer indicators have been stronger this year than in late 2022.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The main risk of a recession last year was due to the Fed raising rates as fast as they did, which adversely impacted housing, financial markets, and business activity.
The good news is that these sectors are improving even as consumer strength continues. The improvement in housing is notable. Additionally, the drag from financial conditions is beginning to ease as we think that the Federal Reserve gets closer to the end of rate hikes, and markets rally.
Putting the Puzzle Together
Another novel part of our approach is that we have an LEI like the one for the US for more than 25 other countries. Each one is custom built to capture the dynamics of those economies. The individual country LEIs are also subsequently rolled up to a global index to give us a picture of the global economy, as shown below.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
I want to emphasize that we do not rely solely on this as the one and only input into our asset allocation, portfolio and risk management decisions. While it is an important component that encapsulates a lot of significant information, it is just one piece of the puzzle. Our process also has other pillars such as policy (both monetary and fiscal), technical factors, and valuations.
We believe it’s important to put all these pieces together, kind of like putting together a puzzle, to understand what’s happening in the economy and markets, and position portfolios accordingly.
Putting together a puzzle is both a mechanistic and artistic process. The mechanistic aspect involves sorting the pieces, finding edges, and matching colors, etc. It requires a logical and methodical approach, and in our process the LEI is key to that.
However, there is an artistic element as well. As we assemble the pieces together, a larger picture gradually emerges. You can make creative decisions about how each piece fits within the overall picture. Within the context of portfolio management, that takes a diverse range of experience. Which is the core strength of our Investment Research Team.

Welcome to the New Bull Market

“If you torture numbers enough, they will tell you anything.” -Yogi Berra, Yankee great and Hall of Fame catcher
Don’t shoot the messenger, but historically, it is widely considered a new bull market once stocks are more than 20% off their bear market lows. This is similar to when stocks are down 20% they are in a bear market. Well, the S&P 500 is less than one percent away from this 20% threshold, so get ready to hear a lot about it when it eventually happens.
I’m not crazy about this concept, as we’ve been in the camp that the bear market ended in October for months now (we started to say it in late October, getting some really odd looks I might add), meaning a new bull market has been here for a while. Take another look at the great Yogi quote above, as someone can get whatever they want probably when talking about bear and bull markets.
None the less, what exactly does a 20% move higher off a bear market low really mean? The good news is future returns are quite strong.
We found 13 times that stocks soared at least 20% off a 52-week low and 10 times the lows were indeed in and not violated. The only times it didn’t work? Twice during the tech bubble implosion and once during the Financial Crisis. In other words, some of the truly worst times to be invested in stocks. But the other 10 times, once there was a 20% gain, the lows were in and in most cases, higher prices were soon coming. This chart does a nice job of showing this concept, with the red dots the times new lows were still yet to come after a 20% bounce.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s a table with all the breakdowns. A year later stocks were down only once and that was during the 2001/2002 bear market, with the average gain a year after a 20% bounce at a very impressive 17.7%. It is worth noting that the one- and three-month returns aren’t anything special, probably because some type of consolidation would be expected after surges higher, but six months and a year later are quite strong.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As we’ve been saying this full year, we continue to expect stocks to do well this year and the upward move is firmly in place and studies like this do little to change our opinion.

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 9th, 2023

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/11/23

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
($ADBE $ORCL $KR $ACB $ATEX $ITI $LEN $MPAA $JBL $ECX $POWW $HITI $MMMB $CGNT $WLY $RFIL)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
(NONE.)
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 6.12.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Monday 6.12.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 6.13.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

Tuesday 6.13.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.14.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.14.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.15.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.15.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 6.16.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!]())
(NONE.)

Friday 6.16.23 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!

I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead StockMarketChat. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to StockMarketChat [link] [comments]


2023.06.09 21:08 Livid-Passenger551 How to stay updated about upcoming metal gigs in the city?

It’s been a year I am here and I know that the best metal gigs happen in Bangalore. I am a person who watched the “Global Metal” documentary and drooled at the Indian scenes. I have watched Karnivool, Poets of the Fall, Gutslit, Motherjane, Avial, Textures, Megadeth and Steven Wilson live (apart from local gigs). A friend of mine who is a concert photographer texted me today and shared some pics of the recent Born of Osiris gig in BLR. He stays in Delhi. I lost it at that moment since I am a big BOO fan. I really have to know how to get updates on any such gigs. I am not on Instagram or Facebook. A overview of genres I am interested in (although it can very well get updated, I’m mostly open) - alternative , metalcore, djent, progressive, death core, experimental, crapcore, shoegaze, etc. Any suggestion would be helpful. Looking to hit a gig asap.
submitted by Livid-Passenger551 to bangalore [link] [comments]


2023.06.09 19:27 Southern-Soulshine Stephen Smith Grand Jury Calling Witnesses, Reviewing Evidence (via FITS News)

Stephen Smith Grand Jury Calling Witnesses, Reviewing Evidence
Cold case heats up … by FITSNews
According to our sources, the grand jury has been meeting for several weeks and has already heard critical evidence related to this unsolved murder – including evidence which “conclusively proves” Smith was killed at the site where his body was found.
Forensic expert Kenneth Kinsey has reportedly confirmed this assessment based on a review of the graphic crime scene photos of Smith’s murder. Kinsey was hired to review the evidence in this case as part of an independent investigation launched by Bland’s law firm.
To recap: Smith’s body was discovered by a passing motorist (a tow truck driver) at approximately 4:00 a.m. EDT on July 8, 2015 in the middle of Sandy Run Road near Crocketville, S.C. Initially deemed gunshot wound – and later a vehicular hit-and-run – the investigation was originally handled by the S.C. Highway Patrol (SCHP) “Multi-Disciplinary Accident Investigation Team” (MAIT). It wasn’t until nearly six years later that it became an active murder case handled by SLED.
SLED opened a homicide investigation into Smith’s death shortly after the savage slayings of 52-year-old Maggie Murdaugh and 22-year-old Paul Murdaugh on June 7, 2021 at Moselle – a 1,700-acre hunting property straddling the Salkehatchie River which until recently belonged to the Murdaugh family.
Disbarred attorney Alex Murdaugh – a scion of this once-dominant legal dynasty – was convicted of those killings and sentenced to life in prison in March of this year.
What was the Murdaugh family’s connection to Smith’s death? It’s not immediately clear. According to 26-year-old Buster Murdaugh – who has been accused by many on social media of being involved in the crime – there is no connection.
“These baseless rumors of my involvement with Stephen and his death are false,” Murdaugh said in a statement released back in March. “I unequivocally deny any involvement in his death.”
Others close to this story – including Sandy Smith – believe otherwise. In fact, Smith wrote a letter to the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) in the fall of 2016 detailing the Murdaugh family’s alleged involvement.
“Stephen had on more than one occasion mentioned to friends and his twin sister that he was involved romantically with someone from a prominent family in the county who was hiding his sexuality,” Smith wrote in her letter. “He said it would shock people to know this person was gay. We suspect this could be the young man Stephen was referring to, though he never named him.”
As this news outlet reported earlier this year, SLED is considering two persons of interest in connection with Smith’s death – 25-year-old Patrick Wilson and 25-year-old Shawn Connelly, both of Brunson, S.C.
. . .
STEPHEN SMITH CASE FILES
FILE 1: SANDY SMITH’S LETTER IMPLICATING BUSTER MURDAUGH
FILE 2: THE FIRST AUTOPSY
FILE 3: THE HIGHWAY PATROL REPORT
FILE 4: THE INITIAL INTERVIEWS
FILE 5: EXHUMATION, PERSONS OF INTEREST UPDATE
FILE 6: THE PRIVATE EYE
. . .
Both Wilson and Connelly lived in the area near where Stephen Smith’s body was found … and there is information obtained by SLED investigators which has reportedly drawn a sharper focus on them as potential suspects. Several of these same leads were followed by producers and investigators associated with the Netflix documentary – as well as the initial legal team retained by Sandy Smith. In November of 2021, Charleston, S.C. attorney Andy Savage – who at the time was representing Smith’s family – gave an interview to WCIV TV-4 in which he indicated the Murdaughs were “unconnected” to Smith’s murder and any speculation related to their involvement was “unfounded.”
“There are suspects we have in sight that are unconnected to Murdaugh,” Savage told reporters Anne Emerson and Drew Tripp. “The focus any in the media have on Murdaugh may be unfounded.”
Sandy Smith recoiled at that revelation – and parted ways with Savage as her attorney shortly thereafter.
As previously reported by this news outlet, on December 18, 2015 – five months after Smith’s murder – SCHP investigators received a tip from Wilson’s self-described step-father, Darrell Williams of Varnville, S.C. According to Williams, Wilson informed him that Connelly – another Hampton County teenager – was driving a vehicle which “struck and killed Stephen Smith.”
Who told him to share this information? Randy Murdaugh – Alex Murdaugh’s older brother.
According to case notes contained in the MAIT report, Williams “stated that the reason he was passing this information on was because Randy Murdaugh told him to call.”
As I have often noted, the crime scene in this case is “a study in contradictions.”
“The location of Smith’s body in the middle of the road was totally inconsistent with a vehicular strike – but the massive blood loss observed on the asphalt seemed inconsistent with him being murdered at another location,” I noted in a recent report.
submitted by Southern-Soulshine to MurdaughFamilyMurders [link] [comments]


2023.06.09 19:17 M4DST3RCOLLECTOR F$ Team Lots F$ AFC TEAMS ONLY (I’ll post NFC later) .. WILLING to negotiate a little. Prices in pictures. SHIPPING rules apply

F$ Team Lots F$ AFC TEAMS ONLY (I’ll post NFC later) .. WILLING to negotiate a little. Prices in pictures. SHIPPING rules apply
Couldn’t fit Raiders lot ($10) and Bengals lot ($15)
submitted by M4DST3RCOLLECTOR to FootballCardz [link] [comments]


2023.06.09 19:04 kelti-o (Offer) Dungeons and Dragons, Super Mario Bros 4K, Bones and All Vudu, Babylon 4K, Flashdance 4K, Mad Max 2 4K, Mulan 1998 4K, Scream 5 2022, X-Men Trilogy MA, Waterworld, SONY BUFF PASS, My List (Requests) Renfield MA, Cocaine Bear MA, Evil Dead Rise MA anything I don't have and Your Offers/list

* I split all splitable codes; so, please ONLY redeem what we agree upon. Thanks in advance!
****DISNEY HD SPLIT CODES (**port to MA)
101 Dalmations 1961 (GP)
Aladdin 1992 Animated (GP)
Aladdin Live Action (iTunes) (redeems 4K)
Aladdin Live Action (GP)
Alexander and the Terrible Horrible No Good Bad Day (MA)
Ant-man (GP)
Avengers Age of Ultron (GP)
Avengers Age of Ultron (iTunes) (redeems 4K)
Avengers Infinity War (GP)
Avengers Infinity War (iTunes) (redeems 4K)
Bambi (iTunes)
Beauty and the Beast Animated (iTunes) (redeems 4K)
Big Hero Six (iTunes) (redeems 4K)
Captain America First Avenger (GP)
Captain America First Avenger (iTunes) (redeems 4K)
Captain America Winter Soldier (GP)
Captain Marvel (iTunes) (redeems 4K)
Cars 3 (GP)
Cars 3 (iTunes) (redeems 4K)
Cinderella 2015 (iTunes) (redeems 4K)
Finding Dory (iTunes) (redeems 4K)
Finding Nemo 4K (MA)
Frozen (GP)
Frozen (MA) (redeems 4K through iTunes)
Frozen Sing a Long Edition (GP)
Frozen Sing a Long Edition (MA)
Frozen 2 (MA) 4K
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 1 (GP)
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 (GP)
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 (iTunes) (redeems 4K)
Hercules 1997 (GP)
Inside Out (iTunes) (redeems 4K)
Into The Woods (MA)
Iron Man 2 (GP)
Iron Man 3 (GP)
Iron Man 3 (MA) (redeems 4K through iTunes)
Jungle Book 2016 (iTunes) (redeems 4K)
The Lion King Animated (iTunes) (redeems 4K)
The Lion King Live Action (iTunes) (redeems 4K)
Maleficent (iTunes) (redeems 4K)
Maleficent (GP)
Maleficent Mistress of Evil (iTunes) (redeems 4K)
Mary Poppins 1964 (MA)
Mary Poppins Returns (iTunes) (redeems 4K)
Million Dollar Arm (GP)
Monsters University (GP)
Mulan 1998 (MA) 4K
Muppets Most Wanted (MA)
Onward 4K (MA)
Oz The Great and Powerful (iTunes)
Oz The Great and Powerful (GP)
Petes Dragon 2016 (iTunes)
Pinocchio (iTunes)
Planes (GP)
Planes (MA)
Planes Fire and Rescue (GP)
Planes Fire and Rescue (MA)
Queen of Katwe (iTunes)
Return to Neverland: Peter Pan (MA)
Saving Mr. Banks (MA)
Sleeping Beauty 1959 (GP)
Spies in Disguise 4K (MA)
Spies in Disguise (GP)
Star Wars Rogue One (iTunes) (redeems 4K)
Star Wars The Force Awakens (GP)
Star Wars The Force Awakens (iTunes) (redeems 4K)
Star Wars The Last Jedi 4K (MA)
Star Wars The Rise of Skywalker (GP)
Super Buddies (GP)
The BFG (iTunes)
The Finest Hours (GP)
The Good Dinosaur (MA) (iTunes redeems 4K)
The Little Mermaid 4K (MA)
The Little Mermaid 2 Return to the Sea (iTunes)
The Little Mermaid 3 Ariels Beginnings (iTunes)
The Lone Ranger (GP)
The Lone Ranger (MA)
The Nightmare Before Christmas (MA)
The Pirate Fairy (MA)
Thor (GP)
Thor (MA) (iTunes redeems 4K)
Thor Ragnarock (iTunes) (redeems 4K)
Tinkerbell and the Legend of the Neverbeast (GP)
Tomorrowland (MA)
Toy Story 4 (iTunes) (redeems 4K)
Wall-E (iTunes) (redeems 4K)
Zootopia (GP)
Zootopia (iTunes) (redeems 4K)
SONY BUFF PASS x1 (Choose 1 of the following options...)
Annie (1982)
Armored
Boogeyman 2
Buck and the Preacher
Julie & Julia
Little Man
Not Another Teen Movie (4K)
Starship Troopers (4K)
The Suburbans (SD)
To Sir, With Love (4K)
HD CODES (VUDU or MA)
007 Skyfall (vudu/GP)
2 Fast 2 Furious (MA)
47 Ronin (MA)
A Dogs Purpose (MA)
A Good Day To Die Hard Extended (MA)
A Quiet Place (VUDU HD/iTunes 4K)
American Girl Isabella Dances into the Spotlight (MA)
American Girl McKenna Shoots for the Stars (MA)
America Imagine The World Without Her (VUDU)
American Made 2017 (MA)
American Reunion Unrated (MA)
Anchorman 2 (VUDU split)
Annie 2014 SD (MA)
Apollo 13 (MA) Split
Atlas Shrugger Part 3 (MA)
Babylon (Vudu 4k/iTunes 4K)
Bad Grandpa: Jackass Presents (VUDU split)
Barbie and her Sisters in A Pony Tale (MA)
Barbie and the Secret Door (MA)
Barbie in Princess Power (MA)
Barbie in the Pink Shoes (MA)
Barbie Mariposa and the Fairy Princess (MA)
Barbie Starlight Adventure (MA)
Battleship (MA)
Ben Hur 2016 (vudu split)
BlackHat (MA split)
Bones and All 2023 (Vudu)
Book Club (VUDU split)
Buttons A Christmas Tale (Vudu split)
Captain Underpants The First Epic Movie (MA)
Concussion (MA) SD
Cult of Chucky unrated (MA) split
Curse of Chucky unrated (MA) split
Daddy's Home (VUDU split)
Daddy's Home 2 (VUDU split)
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes (MA) (redeems 4K iTunes)
Deadpool (MA) (redeems 4K through iTunes)
Despicable Me 1 (MA)
Despicable Me 2 (MA)
Despicable Me 3 (MA)
Diary of a Wimpy Kid Dog Days (MA)
Divergent (SD) (VUDU)
Dracula Untold (MA)
Dragonheart Battle For The Heartfire (MA split)
Dredd (Vudu)
Dr. Seuss's The Lorax (MA)
Dungeons and Dragons Honor Among Thieves (Vudu HD/iTunes 4K)
Eddie The Eagle (MA) (redeems 4K through iTunes)
Ender's Game (VUDU split)
Epic (MA)
E.T. (MA)
Everest ( MA) split
The Fast and Furious 2001 (MA)
Fast and Furious 2009 (MA)
Fast and Furious Tokyo Drift 2006 (MA)
Fast Five Extended Edition 2011 (MA)
Fast & Furious 6 Extended Edition (MA)
The Fast and Furious 2017 Theatrical (MA)
The Fast and Furious 2017 Extended (MA)
Furious 7 Extended Edition (MA)
Fences (Vudu split)
Fifty Shades of Grey unrated (MA)
Flashdance (Vudu 4K)
Flight (vudu split)
Foxcatcher (MA)
Friday the 13th Part 3 (Vudu/iTunes)
Get Out (MA)
G.I. Joe Retaliation (vudu split)
Hail, Cesar! (MA)
Hansel and Gretel Witch Hunters unrated (Vudu split)
Heaven is for real SD (MA)
Hercules 2014 (vudu split)
Home Alone (MA) (redeems 4K through iTunes)
Hop (MA)
Hotel Transylvania SD (MA)
How the Grinch Stole Christmas 2000 (MA)
Hunger Games (Vudu)
Hunger Games Catching Fire (Vudu)
Hunger Games Mockingjay Part 1 (vudu)
Ice Age Continental Drift (MA)
Interstellar (VUDU split)
Jackass 3 (Vudu Split)
Jack Reacher (Vudu split)
Jack Ryan Shadow Recruit (vudu split)
Jason Bourne (MA)
Jaws (MA)
John Wick 1 (HD Vudu/4K iTunes)
John Wick 3 (vudu/GP/iTunes 4K)
Jurassic Park (MA)
Jurassic Park The Lost World (MA)
Jurassic Park 3 (MA)
Jurassic World (MA)
Katy Perry The Movie (vudu split)
Kingsman The Secret Service (MA) (redeems 4K through iTunes)
Kung Fu Panda 3 (MA)
Last Knights (SD) (Vudu)
Les Miserables 2012 (MA)
Life of Pi (MA) (redeems 4K through iTunes)
Love Actually (MA) SD
Lucy (MA) 4K
Madagascar 3 Europes Most Wanted (MA)
Mad Max 2: The Road Warrior (MA) 4K
Mariah Carey's All I Want For Christmas (MA) split
Minions (MA)
Mission Impossible Ghost Protocol (vudu split)
Mission Impossible Rogue Nation (Vudu split)
Mission Impossible Fallout (vudu split)
Monster High Electrified (MA)
Monster HIgh Fright ON (MA)
Monster High: Welcome to Monster High (MA)
Mother! (Vudu split)
Mr Peabody and Sherman (MA)
Nebraska (Vudu split)
Noah (vudu split)
Non Stop (MA)
No Strings Attached (VUDU split)
Oblivion (MA)
Office Christmas Party (VUDU) split
Only The Brave (MA)
Olympus Has Fallen (MA)
Pain and Gain (vudu split)
Paper Towns (MA) (redeems 4K through iTunes)
Paranormal Activity 1 (vudu split)
Paranormal Activity 2 unrated (Vudu split)
Paranormal Activity 3 extended (Vudu split)
Paranormal Activity 4 unrated (Vudu Split)
Parental Guidance (MA)
Penguins of Madagascar (MA)
Percy Jackson Sea of Monsters (MA)
Perks of Being A Wallflower (vudu)
Pitch Perfect 1 (MA)
Pitch Perfect 2 (MA)
Pitch Perfect 3 (MA)
Planes, Trains and Automobiles (HD VUDU/4K iTunes)
Rango (VUDU split)
Red 2 (SD) (VUDU)
Ride Along (MA)
Rio 2 (MA)
R.I.P.D. (MA)
Rise of the Guardians (VUDU)
Rise of the Planet of the Apes (MA) (redeems 4K through iTunes)
Runner, Runner (MA)
Safe House (MA)
Sausage Party (MA)
Scream 2022 (Vudu HD/iTunes 4K)
Selma (vudu split)
Sherlock Gnomes (Vudu split)
Silent Night, Deadly Night Collection 3,4,5 (Vudu)
Sing (MA)
Sisters (MA)
Snatched (MA) (redeems 4K through iTunes)
Snow White and the Huntsman (MA)
Son of God (MA)
Split (MA) 4K
Start Trek 4 The Voyage Home (VUDU HD/iTunes 4K)
Star Trek Beyond (Vudu split)
Star Trek Into Darkness (Vudu split)
Straight Outta Compton Dir Cut (MA split)
Suburbicon (Vudu split)
Super 8 (VUDU split)
Super Mario Bros Movie 2023 (MA 4K)
Taken 2 (MA)
Ted unrated (MA)
Ted 2 unrated (MA)
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 2014 (vudu split)
Terminator Dark Fate 4K (vudu split)
The Adventures of Tin Tin (Vudu split)
The Amazing Spiderman 2 (MA)
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (MA)
The Big Short (VUDU split)
The Boss Baby (MA) (4K through iTunes)
The Boss Unrated (MA)
The Bourne Identity (MA)
The Bourne Legacy (MA)
The Bourne Supremacy (MA)
The Bourne Ultimatum (MA)
The Croods (MA)
The Dark Tower (MA)
The Dentist Collection 1,2 (Vudu)
The Dictator (VUDU split)
The Dilemma (MA)
The Fault in our Stars (MA) (redeems 4K through iTunes)
The Gambler (Vudu split)
The Girl On The Train (MA)
The Guilt Trip (Vudu split)
The Heat 2013 (MA)
The Impossible (Vudu)
The Internship (MA)
The Last Stand SD (Vudu split)
The Mummy 2017 (MA)
The Mummy Dragon of the Tomb Emporer (MA)
The Other Woman (MA)
The Purge 2013 (MA split)
The Purge: Election Year (MA) split
The Scorpion King 4 Quest For Power (MA) split
The Secret Life of Pets (MA)
The Secret Life of Walter Mitty (MA)
The Sponge Bob Movie Sponge out of Water (VUDU split)
The Wolf of Wallstreet (VUDU split)
The Wolverine Extended (MA)
This is 40 theatrical (MA)
Top Gun (vudu split)
Transformers Dark of the Moon (vudu split)
Transformers Age of Extinction (Vudu split)
Transformers The Last Knight (Vudu split)
Tremors A Cold Day in Hell (MA)
True Grit (VUDU split)
Turbo (MA)
Unbroken (MA)
Unfriended (MA)
Warcraft ( MA)
War For the Planet of the Apes (MA) (redeems 4K through iTunes)
Warm Bodies (VUDU split)
What to Expect When You're Expecting (vudu split)
Whiskey Tango Foxtrot (Vudu split)
World War Z (Vudu split)
X-Men Days of Future Past (MA) (redeems 4K through iTunes)
X-Men Trilogy (One Code) (MA) (X-Men 2000, United, Last Stand)
XXX Return of Xander Cage (Vudu split)
TV SHOWS HD (Will trade for single movie)
Game of Thrones Season 2 (iTunes redeem)
Game of Thrones Season 3 (iTunes redeem)
ITUNES HD CODES unless otherwise stated
A Quiet Place (redeems 4K) Split
Alien Covenant (redeems 4K)
Alvin and the Chipmunks The Road Trip (ports to MA) (redeems 4K)
Anchorman 2 The Legend Continues (split)
Bad Grandpa Jackass Presents (split)
Ben Hur 2016 (split redeems 4K)
Captain Underpants The First Epic Movie (ports to MA)
Cowboys and Aliens (ports to MA)
Daddy's Home (split redeems 4K)
Daddy's Home 2 (split redeems 4K)
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes (ports to MA) (redeems 4K)
Deadpool (ports to MA) (redeems 4K)
Despicable Me 2 (ports to MA) (redeems 4K)
Diary of A Wimpy Kid (ports to MA)
Dredd (redeems 4K)
Dr. Seuss' The Lorax (ports to MA)
Eddie the Eagle (ports to MA) (redeems 4K)
Exodus Gods and Kings (ports to MA) (redeems 4K)
Fast and Furious 6 extended 2013 (ports to MA) (redeems 4K)
Fifty Shades of Grey (ports to MA) (redeems 4K)
Friday the 13th Part 3
G I Joe Retaliation (split) (redeems 4K)
Hansel and Gretal Witch Hunters
Hercules 2014 (split redeems 4K)
Hidden Figures (ports to MA) (redeems 4K)
Home Alone (ports to MA) (redeems 4K)
Home Alone 2 (ports to MA)
How the Grinch Stole Christmas 2000 (ports to MA) (redeems 4K split)
How to Train Your Dragon 2 (ports to MA) (redeems 4K)
Hugo (Split redeems 4K)
Hunger Games (split redeems 4K)
Hunger Games Mockingjay Part 1 (split redeems 4K)
Ice Age (ports to MA)
Ice Age 5 Collision Course (ports to MA) (redeems 4K)
Identity Thief (ports to MA)
Independence Day Resurgence (ports to MA) (redeems 4K)
Interstellar (split redeems 4K)
Jack Reacher (split) (redeems 4K)
Jack Ryan Shadow Recruit (split redeems 4K)
Jason Bourne (ports to MA) (redeems 4K)
Jurassic World (ports to MA) (redeems 4K)
Keeping Up With The Joneses (porst to MA) (redeems 4K)
Kingsman The Secret Service (ports to MA) (redeems 4K)
Kingsman The Golden Circle (ports to MA) (redeems 4K)
Kung Fu Panda 3 (ports to MA)
Les Miserables 2012 (ports to MA)
Lets Be Cops (ports to MA) (redeems 4K)
Logan (ports to MA) (redeems 4K)
Lucy (ports to MA) (redeems 4K)
MikE and Dave need Wedding Dates (ports to MA) (redeems 4K)
Minions (ports to MA) (redeems 4K)
Mission Impossible Ghost Protocol (split redeems 4K)
Mission Impossible Rogue Nation (split redeems 4K)
Mission Impossible Fallout (split redeems 4K)
Miss Peregrines Home For Peculiar Children (ports to MA) (redeems 4K)
Monster High 13 Wishes (ports to MA)
Monster High: Welcome to Monster High (ports to MA)
Mr Peabody and Sherman (ports to MA)
Nebraska (split)
Neighbors (ports to MA)
Night at the Museum Secret of the Tomb (ports to MA) (redeems 4K)
Noah (split)
Oblivion (ports to MA) (redeems 4K)
Office Christmas Party (redeems 4K)
Paranormal Activity 1 (split)
Paranormal Activity 2 (split)
Pitch Perfect 1 (ports to MA) (redeems 4K)
Pitch Perfect 2 (ports to MA) (redeems 4K)
Playing with Fire (redeems 4K)
Poltergeist 2015 Extended Cut (ports to MA)
Rise of the Planet of the apes (ports to MA) (redeems 4K)
Safe House (ports to MA)
Schindlers List (ports to MA) (redeems 4K) split
Selma (split)
Serenity 2005 (ports to MA)
Sisters unrated (ports to MA)
Snatched (ports to MA) (redeems 4K)
Snow White and the Huntsman (ports to MA)
Spectre (redeems 4K)
Spy unrated (ports to MA)
Star Trek Beyond (redeems 4K)
Star Trek Into Darkness (redeems 4K)
Super 8 (redeems 4K split)
Ted (ports to MA)
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 2014 (redeems 4K)
The Best Man Holiday (ports to MA)
The Big Short
The Book of Life (ports to MA)
The Boss Baby (ports to MA)
The Bourne Legacy (ports to MA) (redeems 4K)
The BoxTrolls (ports to MA) (redeems 4K)
The Change up (ports to MA)
The Fault In Our Stars (ports to MA) (redeems 4K)
The Gambler (split)
The Last Stand (SD)
The Longest Ride (ports to MA) (redeems 4K)
The Martian (ports to MA) (redeems 4K)
The Maze Runner (ports to MA) (redeems 4K)
The Maze Runner The Scorch Trials (ports to MA) (redeems 4k)
The Peanuts Movie (ports to MA) (redeems 4K)
The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (ports to MA)
The Secret Life of Pets (ports to MA) (redeems 4K)
The SpongeBob Movie Sponge Out of Water (Split)
The Wolf of Wall Street (split redeems 4K)
Transformers Age of Extinction (split redeems 4K)
Transformers The Last Knight (split redeems 4K)
Trolls (ports to MA)
True Grit (redeems 4K)
Unbroken (ports to MA)
War for the Planet of the Apes (ports to MA) (redeems 4K)
Warm Bodies (split redeems 4K)
Waterworld (ports to MA split redeems 4K)
Wild 2014 (ports to MA) (redeems 4K)
Why him (ports to MA) (redeems 4K)
World War Z (split)
X-Men Apocalypse (ports to MA) (redeems 4K)
X-Men Days of Future Past (ports to MA) (redeems 4K)
X-Men Days of Future Past ROGUE CUT (ports to MA) (redeems 4K)
X-Men First Class (ports to MA) (redeems 4K)
X-Men Origins Wolverine (ports to MA)
XXX Return of Xander Cage (redeems 4K)
ITUNES XML (SD) Redeems
A Nightmare On Elm Street 2010 (ports to MA)
Abraham Lincoln Vampire Hunter (ports to MA)
Alien vs Predator Requiem (ports to MA)
Alpha and Omega
Alvin and the Chipmunks The Movie (ports to MA)
Alvin and the Chipmunks The Squekeul (ports to MA)
Alvin and the Chipmunks Chip Wrecked (ports to MA)
Another Earth (ports to MA)
Arthur (ports to MA)
Babylon A.D. (ports to MA)
Black Swan (ports to MA)
Bridesmaids (ports to MA)
Chronicle (ports to MA)
Chronicles of Narnia Voyage of Dawn Treader (ports to MA)
Crank 2
Crazy Stupid Love (ports to MA)
Date Night (ports to MA)
Daybreakers
Diary of A Wimpy Kid (ports to MA)
Diary of a Wimpy Kid Rodrick Rules (ports to MA)
Doc McStuffins Friendship is the best Medicine
Dr Deuss Horton Hears A Who (ports to MA)
Due Date (ports to MA)
E.T. (ports to MA)
Fame 2009
Family Guy It's A Trap
Family Guy Something Something Darkside
Final Destination 5 (ports to MA)
From Paris With Love
Hall Pass (ports to MA)
Hangover Part 2 (ports to MA)
Hall Pass (ports to MA)
Hereafter (ports to MA)
Hitman 2007 (ports to MA)
Horrible Bosses (ports to MA)
Ice Age A Mammoth Christmas (ports to MA)
Ice Age Dawn of the Dinosaurs (ports to MA)
IMAX Hubble (ports to MA)
Jake and the Neverland Pirates Peter Pan Returns
Jumper (ports to MA)
Juno (ports to MA)
Kick-Ass
Knight and Day (ports to MA)
Love and Other Drugs (ports to MA)
Mamma Mia The Movie (ports to MA)
Marley and Me (ports to MA)
Mr Poppers Penguins (ports to MA)
My Bloody Valentine
Orphan (ports to MA)
Percy Jackson The lightning Thief (ports to MA)
Phineas and Ferb The Perry Files
Predators 2010 (ports to MA)
Prometheus (ports to MA)
Public Enemies (ports to MA)
Rio (ports to MA)
Rise of the Planet of the Apes (ports to mA)
Robin Hood (russel crowe) (ports to MA)
Saw The Final Chapter
Secret of the Wings (ports to MA)
Something Borrowed (ports to MA)
Strawberry Shortcake Berry Bitty Mysteries (ports to MA)
Taken (ports to MA)
The A Team (ports to MA)
The Croods (ports to MA)
The Day the Earth Stood Still (keanu) (ports to MA)
The Descendants (Clooney) (ports to MA)
The Expendables
The Eye
The Forbidden Kingdom
The Help (ports to MA)
The Mummy Tomb of the Dragon Emporer (ports to MA)
The Sitter (ports to MA)
The Spirit
The Watch
The Means War (ports to MA)
Transporter 3
Unknown (ports to MA)
Unstoppable (ports to MA)
Wanted (ports to MA)
War Zone Punisher
We Bought a Zoo (ports to MA)
X-Men First Class (ports to mA)
X-Men Origins Wolverine (ports to MA)
X-Men 2000 (ports to MA)
X-Men United:X2 (ports to MA)
X-Men The last Stand (ports to MA)
Yogi Bear (ports to MA)
**ALL codes have been verified
MY ISO/Request list:
Cocaine Bear MA
Evil Dead Rise MA
Fast 10 MA
John Wick 4 iTunes
Magic Mikes Last Dance MA
Mummies 2023 MA
Renfield MA
Scream 6 iTunes
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2023.06.09 17:05 wdmcarth Daily Bullpen Usage: 06/09/23

Last updated: 06/09/23 11:05:05 EST

LEGEND

Note Description
Italics Pitched previous day or twice in last 3 days.
Strikethrough Pitched back to back days.
Bold Recent transaction.
L3:## Number of pitches thrown in last 3 days.
*** SP first start.
** SP yet to reach 5.0 innings in a game.
* SP yet to surpass 6.0 innings in a game.

BULLPEN USAGE

Team Opp SP CL SU8 SU7 MID LR
ARI @DET Merrill Kelly Miguel Castro, Andrew ChafinL3:19 Scott McGoughL3:17 Austin AdamsL3:9, Kyle NelsonL3:15, José RuizL3:22, Kevin GinkelL3:10 Drey Jameson
ATL WSN AJ Smith-Shawver*** Raisel IglesiasL3:26 Nick AndersonL3:8 A.J. MinterL3:29 Jesse ChavezL3:41, Collin McHughL3:16, Joe JiménezL3:29, Kirby YatesL3:28 Michael TonkinL3:33
BAL KCR Tyler Wells Félix BautistaL3:32 Yennier CanoL3:31 Bryan BakerL3:12 Danny CoulombeL3:22, Mike BaumannL3:17, Cionel Pérez, Keegan AkinL3:18, Austin VothL3:21 Bruce ZimmermannL3:61
BOS @NYY Garrett Whitlock Kenley JansenL3:13 Chris MartinL3:25 Josh Winckowski Justin GarzaL3:15, Brennan BernardinoL3:7, Nick Pivetta Corey KluberL3:73
CHC @SFG Marcus Stroman Mark Leiter Jr.L3:22, Adbert AlzolayL3:13 Michael FulmerL3:23 Julian MerryweatherL3:48 Brandon HughesL3:15, Michael RuckerL3:37, Jeremiah EstradaL3:23 Javier Assad
CHW MIA Dylan Cease Liam HendriksL3:14, Kendall GravemanL3:40 Joe KellyL3:46 Reynaldo LópezL3:19 Keynan Middleton, Aaron BummerL3:22, Gregory SantosL3:7 Garrett CrochetL3:15
CIN @STL Ben Lively Alexis DíazL3:11 Lucas SimsL3:9 Buck FarmerL3:16 Ian GibautL3:49, Alex YoungL3:46, Fernando CruzL3:41 Eduardo SalazarL3:53
CLE HOU Logan Allen Emmanuel ClaseL3:16 James KarinchakL3:19 Trevor StephanL3:13 Eli MorganL3:39, Sam HentgesL3:31, Enyel De Los SantosL3:32, Nick SandlinL3:14 Xzavion CurryL3:31
COL SDP Austin Gomber Justin LawrenceL3:31 Pierce JohnsonL3:46 Jake BirdL3:47 Brent SuterL3:9, Brad HandL3:33, Daniel BardL3:39, Matt CarasitiL3:26 Peter LambertL3:55
DET ARI Michael Lorenzen Alex LangeL3:22 Jason FoleyL3:16 Will VestL3:27 José CisneroL3:19, Chasen ShreveL3:23, Tyler HoltonL3:46, Mason Englert, Tyler AlexanderL3:45 Garrett Hill
HOU @CLE Cristian Javier Ryan Pressly Bryan AbreuL3:25 Hector NerisL3:23 Rafael MonteroL3:35, Phil MatonL3:42, Ryne Stanek, Seth Martinez Ronel BlancoL3:94
KCR @BAL Daniel Lynch* Scott Barlow Aroldis Chapman Taylor Clarke Carlos Hernández, Jose CuasL3:21, Nick WittgrenL3:15, Austin Cox, Jackson KowarL3:44 Mike Mayers
LAA SEA Shohei Ohtani Carlos EstévezL3:29 Chris DevenskiL3:35 Jacob WebbL3:15 Ben JoyceL3:27, Aaron LoupL3:8, Sam BachmanL3:26, José SorianoL3:26 Tucker Davidson
LAD @PHI Michael Grove* Evan PhillipsL3:22, Brusdar GraterolL3:34, Caleb FergusonL3:30 Yency AlmonteL3:33, Shelby MillerL3:2, Victor González, Alex VesiaL3:17, Nick RobertsonL3:22 Tayler ScottL3:28
MIA @CHW Eury Pérez* A.J. PukL3:14 Dylan Floro Tanner ScottL3:20 Huascar Brazoban, Steven OkertL3:16, JT Chargois, Andrew NardiL3:14 Bryan HoeingL3:24
MIL OAK Adrian Houser Devin WilliamsL3:11 Peter StrzeleckiL3:37 Joel PayampsL3:32 Hoby Milner, Elvis PegueroL3:23, Trevor MegillL3:17, Bennett SousaL3:25, Jake Cousins Bryse WilsonL3:20
MIN @TOR Sonny Gray Jhoan DuranL3:2 Brock StewartL3:13 Jorge López Caleb Thielbar, Emilio PagánL3:20, Jovani Moran, Griffin JaxL3:10 José De LeónL3:26
NYM @PIT Tylor Megill* David RobertsonL3:33, Adam OttavinoL3:34 Brooks RaleyL3:34 Drew SmithL3:36, Jeff BrighamL3:31, Dominic LeoneL3:14, Tommy HunterL3:15, Stephen NogosekL3:30 Josh Walker
NYY BOS Gerrit Cole Clay HolmesL3:16, Michael KingL3:26, Wandy PeraltaL3:1 Ron MarinaccioL3:31, Albert AbreuL3:12, Tommy KahnleL3:27, Jimmy CorderoL3:32, Nick Ramirez Matt Krook
OAK @MIL Sam Moll*** Trevor MayL3:17 Shintaro Fujinami Sam Moll Richard LoveladyL3:3, Lucas ErcegL3:11, Austin Pruitt, Sam LongL3:26 Ken WaldichukL3:54
PHI LAD Ranger Suárez Craig KimbrelL3:46 Seranthony DomínguezL3:23 Matt Strahm Gregory Soto, Connor Brogdon, Jeff Hoffman, Andrew Vasquez, Yunior Marte Dylan Covey
PIT NYM Rich Hill David Bednar Colin Holderman Dauri MoretaL3:17 Jose HernandezL3:11, Yohan RamirezL3:7, Angel PerdomoL3:13, Chase De JongL3:53 Rob ZastryznyL3:32
SDP @COL Yu Darvish Josh HaderL3:19 Nick Martinez Steven WilsonL3:13 Tim HillL3:10, Tom CosgroveL3:23, Brent HoneywellL3:22, Domingo TapiaL3:13 Drew CarltonL3:26
SEA @LAA Luis Castillo Paul SewaldL3:22 Andrés MuñozL3:16 Justin Topa Matt BrashL3:19, Gabe Speier, Tayler SaucedoL3:15, Matt FestaL3:16 Chris FlexenL3:32
SFG CHC Anthony DeSclafani Camilo DovalL3:24 Tyler RogersL3:29 John BrebbiaL3:26 Taylor RogersL3:34, Scott AlexanderL3:18, Ryan WalkerL3:15, Luke JacksonL3:21, Jakob Junis, Tristan BeckL3:11 Sean ManaeaL3:83
STL CIN Jordan Montgomery Ryan HelsleyL3:11, Giovanny GallegosL3:11 Jordan HicksL3:16 Andre Pallante Génesis Cabrera, Drew VerHagenL3:22, Chris StrattonL3:29 Steven MatzL3:19
TBR TEX Tyler Glasnow* Jason AdamL3:38 Colin PocheL3:25 Robert StephensonL3:13 Jake DiekmanL3:33, Kevin KellyL3:13, Jalen BeeksL3:23, Shawn ArmstrongL3:24 Luis Patiño
TEX @TBR Andrew Heaney Will SmithL3:15 Josh SborzL3:25 Grant Anderson Brock Burke, José Leclerc, Cole RagansL3:10, John King Spencer Howard
TOR MIN Yusei Kikuchi Jordan RomanoL3:19 Erik SwansonL3:30 Nate Pearson Tim Mayza, Trevor RichardsL3:13, Adam Cimber, Yimi GarcíaL3:15, Anthony Bass Bowden Francis
WSN @ATL Josiah Gray Kyle Finnegan, Hunter Harvey Carl Edwards Jr.L3:13 Mason ThompsonL3:10, Chad KuhlL3:54, Jordan WeemsL3:16, Cory Abbott Thaddeus WardL3:29

TRANSACTIONS

Date Team Player Category Description
6/9 PHI José Alvarado INJURIES Will be activated from 15-Day IL
6/8 CHW Tanner Banks PROMOTION Recalled from minors (27th man)
6/8 ATL Michael Tonkin INJURIES Activated from 15-Day IL
6/8 LAD Tayler Scott PROMOTION Recalled from minors
submitted by wdmcarth to fantasybaseball [link] [comments]


2023.06.09 15:00 AthleticsBot Game Chat: Athletics @ Brewers - 05:10 PM PDT

Athletics @ Brewers - Fri, Jun 09

Game Status: Game Over - Score: 5-2 Athletics

Links & Info

Athletics Batters AB R H RBI BB K LOB AVG OBP SLG
1 Ruiz, E - CF 5 1 2 1 0 1 2 .263 .322 .339
2 Noda - 1B 4 1 0 0 1 1 3 .249 .410 .462
3 Brown, S - DH 3 1 0 0 2 1 3 .193 .287 .361
4 Laureano - RF 5 1 2 2 0 1 1 .230 .287 .402
5 Peterson - 2B 3 0 0 0 1 1 1 .221 .318 .337
6 Bride - 3B 3 0 1 2 0 1 0 .308 .387 .346
7 Bleday - LF 2 0 0 0 2 1 1 .216 .324 .386
8 Langeliers - C 3 1 1 0 1 2 3 .219 .294 .396
9 Smith, K - SS 4 0 0 0 0 1 6 .186 .205 .302
Totals 32 5 6 5 7 10 20
Athletics
BATTING: 2B: Langeliers (8, Houser). 3B: Laureano (3, Houser). TB: Bride; Langeliers 2; Laureano 4; Ruiz, E 2. RBI: Bride 2 (4); Laureano 2 (17); Ruiz, E (26). 2-out RBI: Bride. Runners left in scoring position, 2 out: Smith, K 2; Noda. SF: Bride. Team RISP: 3-for-11. Team LOB: 8.
FIELDING: E: Medina (1, pickoff).
Brewers Batters AB R H RBI BB K LOB AVG OBP SLG
1 Miller, O - 2B 3 0 2 0 1 0 0 .314 .353 .453
2 Adames - SS 4 0 0 0 0 2 4 .207 .289 .394
3 Contreras, Wm - C 4 0 0 0 0 2 2 .240 .337 .408
4 Yelich - LF 3 0 0 0 1 3 2 .254 .353 .393
5 Wiemer - CF 3 1 0 0 1 2 1 .228 .297 .418
6 Anderson, B - DH 4 0 0 0 0 2 2 .231 .329 .392
7 Perkins, B - RF 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 .160 .222 .320
b-Singleton - PH 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 .158 .200 .211
8 Monasterio - 2B 2 0 0 0 0 1 1 .296 .367 .481
a-Tellez - 1B 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 .227 .306 .443
9 Urías, L - 3B 3 0 1 1 0 0 0 .059 .200 .118
Totals 30 2 4 2 4 12 12
Brewers
a-Grounded out for Monasterio in the 7th. b-Popped out for Perkins, B in the 9th.
BATTING: 2B: Perkins, B (1, Medina); Urías, L (1, Medina). TB: Miller, O 2; Perkins, B 2; Urías, L 2. RBI: Perkins, B (6); Urías, L (1). 2-out RBI: Urías, L. Runners left in scoring position, 2 out: Adames; Anderson, B; Yelich 2. Team RISP: 3-for-10. Team LOB: 5.
FIELDING: E: Contreras, Wm (6, throw).
Athletics Pitchers IP H R ER BB K HR P-S ERA
Moll 1.0 1 0 0 0 3 0 23-16 4.37
Medina (W, 1-5) 5.0 3 2 2 3 6 0 92-51 7.53
Erceg (H, 1) 2.0 0 0 0 1 1 0 29-15 3.75
May (S, 2) 1.0 0 0 0 0 2 0 18-10 5.52
Totals 9.0 4 2 2 4 12 0
Brewers Pitchers IP H R ER BB K HR P-S ERA
Houser (L, 2-2) 4.0 6 5 5 4 4 0 93-52 4.33
Megill 1.0 0 0 0 2 1 0 27-12 4.22
Milner 2.0 0 0 0 1 2 0 32-20 3.47
Wilson, B 1.0 0 0 0 0 2 0 18-11 2.70
Miller, T 1.0 0 0 0 0 1 0 10-7 5.87
Totals 9.0 6 5 5 7 10 0
Game Info
WP: Medina; Erceg.
Pitch timer violations: Houser (pitcher).
Pitches-strikes: Moll 23-16; Medina 92-51; Erceg 29-15; May 18-10; Houser 93-52; Megill 27-12; Milner 32-20; Wilson, B 18-11; Miller, T 10-7.
Groundouts-flyouts: Moll 0-0; Medina 3-3; Erceg 3-1; May 0-0; Houser 1-7; Megill 0-1; Milner 3-0; Wilson, B 0-0; Miller, T 1-0.
Batters faced: Moll 4; Medina 20; Erceg 7; May 3; Houser 22; Megill 5; Milner 7; Wilson, B 3; Miller, T 3.
Inherited runners-scored: Megill 2-1.
Umpires: HP: Ben May. 1B: Jeff Nelson. 2B: Tom Hanahan. 3B: CB Bucknor.
Weather: 74 degrees, Clear.
Wind: 10 mph, L To R.
First pitch: 7:11 PM.
T: 3:00.
Att: 30,657.
Venue: American Family Field.
June 9, 2023
Inning Scoring Play Score
Top 1 Brewers challenged (tag play), call on the field was upheld: Ramon Laureano triples (3) on a fly ball to right fielder Blake Perkins. Esteury Ruiz scores. Ryan Noda scores. 2-0 OAK
Top 1 Jonah Bride singles on a ground ball to left fielder Christian Yelich. Ramon Laureano scores. 3-0 OAK
Top 2 Esteury Ruiz singles on a ground ball to left fielder Christian Yelich. Shea Langeliers scores. 4-0 OAK
Bottom 2 Blake Perkins doubles (1) on a fly ball to left fielder JJ Bleday. Joey Wiemer scores. 4-1 OAK
Bottom 2 Umpire reviewed (home run), call on the field was upheld: Luis Urias doubles (1) on a fly ball to right fielder Ramon Laureano. Blake Perkins scores. 4-2 OAK
Top 5 Jonah Bride out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Joey Wiemer. Seth Brown scores. Ramon Laureano to 3rd. 5-2 OAK
Team Highlight
MIL Bullpen availability for Milwaukee, June 9 vs Athletics (00:00:07)
OAK Bullpen availability for Oakland, June 9 vs Brewers (00:00:07)
OAK Fielding alignment for Oakland, June 9 vs Brewers (00:00:11)
MIL Fielding alignment for Milwaukee, June 9 vs Athletics (00:00:11)
MIL Starting lineups for Athletics at Brewers - June 9, 2023 (00:00:09)
OAK Luis Medina's outing against the Brewers (00:00:23)
OAK Laureano's two-run triple (00:00:27)
OAK Esteury Ruiz's 30th stolen base (00:00:43)
OAK Jonah Bride's RBI single (00:00:22)
OAK Laureano's two run triple, review (00:00:53)
OAK Esteury Ruiz's RBI single (00:00:18)
MIL Blake Perkins' RBI double (00:00:27)
MIL Luis Urías' RBI double (00:00:27)
OAK Urías' RBI double after review (00:00:58)
OAK Jonah Bride's sacrifice fly (00:00:28)
MIL Adrian Houser fans Jonah Bride (00:00:09)
OAK Luis Medina's solid outing (00:00:43)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 R H E LOB
Athletics 3 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 5 6 1 8
Brewers 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 1 5

Decisions

Division Scoreboard

TEX 3 @ TB 8 - Final
HOU 9 @ CLE 9 - Bottom 14, 0 Outs
SEA 3 @ LAA 3 - End 5
Last Updated: 06/09/2023 08:13:02 PM PDT
submitted by AthleticsBot to OaklandAthletics [link] [comments]


2023.06.09 09:36 Beasknees1000 Does anybody remember this movie?

Does anybody remember this movie? submitted by Beasknees1000 to FPSPodcast [link] [comments]


2023.06.09 08:25 Direct_Canary4523 I would rather just like to be happy.

I have been struggling for a while, now, as many of us I think maybe have... It's been a bit of an ongoing theme with life but I always kept going. Pushing. Working. Moving forward. An assault took me out of my career after 15 years, i get up and start a new one. I meet someone, we have a home and years have passed, she cheats and we split, legal battle ends with me getting the dogs and her keeping a beat down home in need of replacement or repair almost immediately, her choice on the house, my choice on the dogs. No regret there. Stay with my aging parents for a bit, move again. My brother takes his own life, over encumbered by the same stresses I am downstricken by. I move back with my parents. My dad has Parkinsons, and is burning through what would be the inheritance for my sister and I, my mother is slowly losing her mind- i don't care about the money. I tell them that, family is the important part. Spend the money, make sure he's comfortable. Fast forward, a few months later, I'm still there and helping, the cost of life, bills, switching cars, etc has dwindled my savings as I refuse to let them spend money on me. My mother has an accident, gets a concussion- i feel awful for her, offer help, she finally flips gourd and starts a massive battle over me surrendering my dogs. Refuses help, even my father is confused, hurt, scared. Refuses help as well, backing her on every mean and senseless thing she says. She assaults me, i (as)calmly(as possible) issue ultimatum that this behavior continued will see me walk out the door with no support system or backup plan, she continues. I left for the afternoon, came home after my shift. She randomly verbally assails me about the same the following day, me begging dozens of times for her to drop the subject.
The dogs are my life. They are the REASON i am alive. Without them i think my brother's death would have broken me. Pretty sure.
She doesn't care. Doesn't give a shit. Screams and lies. I leave.
Weeks later. It's now. I've posted about it, my current situation. I've spent most of the last month awake and in an anxious panic trying to avoid what happens tomorrow. I'll be homeless, as a 34 year old man, with my two dogs, in my thankfully functional but not fantastic car, no matter how temporary it might be for. I'm crying a little now, no shame, I've done everything I knew and all sorts of things i learned about from friends and redditors through the process, I know i put in the effort to avoid it and was lambasted and inundated with incredulous pricing and scams. I didn't want to move 5 hours away from my dying parents, I didn't want to have to go through any of this.
And tomorrow i will declare homelessness, updating my status with 211 services here etc. I won't surrender the dogs, so a lot of services might be unavailable to me. I don't know.
I just want to be stable and happy
How do i be happy
submitted by Direct_Canary4523 to Advice [link] [comments]