Total flex l exercise chart pdf
Share, Compare & Improve Long-Term Investment Portfolio Strategies
2009.10.09 19:33 Share, Compare & Improve Long-Term Investment Portfolio Strategies
Get (and give!) advice on investment portfolios and financial planning goals for retirement (401k, Roth, IRA, HSA) and taxable investing accounts, particularly stock and bond mutual funds and ETFs - learn tips for tax efficiency and other account optimization strategies. This is a great place for beginner and advanced investors to share knowledge! NOTE: please include the names of funds in your post, not just the tickers (we don't have those all memorized!).
2023.06.10 18:42 someguy3 Introducing Middlemak-NH. A variant that puts all vowels on one hand to maximize alternating hands.
This is a variant of Middlemak that gives:
Middlemak-NH GitHub download.
This was inspired by Northstars placement of H, which I think he got from Nerps.
This is an extraordinary option of Middlemak. Specific details:
1) The most fundamental change is that it puts all the vowels on one hand and most consonants on the other. This maximizes alternating hands (since 75% of all bigrams are between vowels and consonants) while still maintaining a good amount of Qwerty similarity to make it easy to adopt and keep shortcuts the same.
2) Second, this is a pretty impressive reduction in SFB (from Middlemak) by getting rid of NK, KN, NY, NF, and NM (and even AZ). None of those are humongous, but they do add up.
3) It reduces NFBs (from Middlemak). (Explanations on points 3 and 4 get pretty big, the short of it is that it reduces NFBS, massively reduces rolls, and puts in more alternating.) Full details:
3a) Left pinky: being N reduces the ring-to-pinky NFBs even more. WN, SN, and XN are much less common than WA, SA, XA.
3b) Right pinky: being A is slightly worse because it gets rid of the H inside roll. It basically splits the previous HI inside roll to half IA and half AI.
3c) RIght index: being H reduces NFB by replacing ON with OH.
4) It massively reduces rolls, replacing them with alternating hands. Full details:
4a) Left pinky: being N reduces overall rolls with the pinky by a massive 53%. The inside rolls reduce significantly, and the outside rolls to N go to almost nil.
4b) Right hand pinky: being A reduces overall rolls with the pinky by slight 11%. There is an increase in outside rolls with the pinky (previously having H there meant there was basically no outside rolls).
4c) Right index: being H reduces overall rolls with the index by 45%. There is also an increase in outside rolls (because H to vowels is common), but the reduction from removing N is huge.
Added up the three letters on both hands and it’s an impressive 43% reduction in overall rolls.
5) I expect this would reduce pinballing even more, because H is less common than N in the middle of words and in-between vowels.
6) Putting H, as the sole common consonant, on the same hand with the vowels works very well. H has half its bigrams with vowels and half with consonants, so putting it with the vowels means ~half the bigrams are on the opposite hand. That’s not as high as the vowels (86% of bigrams with consonants), but it’s quite high all things considered.
7) This still maintains a good amount of Qwerty similarity. Not just the ZXCV, but pretty much the whole bottom row of ZXCVB_M,.? including the punctuation. On the top row it keeps QW in the same spots. On the middle row it still “keeps” part of the SRT order. The letters TG and NYJ switch on the same finger as well. I think Qwerty similarity can’t be overlooked to make it easier to learn.
Downsides:
1) It introduces ND and NG on the same hand. These really don’t feel too bad going from pinky to index inside roll. And this is pretty small considering the amount of rolls taken out.
2) The hands are a little more unbalanced, with the right hand doing a bit more. But it’s very reasonable and still more balanced than most layouts. There’s no changing that without moving one of the uncommon letters Q, Z, X, V to the vowel hand, which would create knock on changes and likely result in a full change layout.
Conclusion:
I think this is a great option to maximize efficiency with most vowels and consonants on opposite hands.
(I do find it interesting that my variant changes 3 letters on the homerow. Most variants change letters around the edges.)
Middlemak (and Middlemak-NH) I specifically put less common bigrams (OY and OK) on the center column. These are also low with E.
Canary(ansi): There are a ton of NFBs with O and the centre column with OF and OM. Canary ortho still has a lot with OM on its centre column.
CTGAP(final/5) has similar NFBs with O and the centre column compared to Middlemak.
MTGAP is top notch in this regard by putting punctuation on the centre column. Very low pairings.
Nerps has a notable handful more than Middlemak with BO/OB. Not huge but not nothing.
(APTv3 doesn’t have the O on the middle finger. Putting O on the ring-finger-upper-row pushes the NFBs further away but imo puts O in a weaker position.)
If people really want I can put in charts for this. Have them in excel but it’s a lot of data.
Moving on, I’ll add some breakdown charts:
Notes: Sorted by SFB count (see next chart). Ratio >1 indicates right hand dominant, <1 indicates left hand dominant. The hand balance ratios are based on each hand's frequency/distance, right hand divided by left hand. E.g. Middlemak: 51.2% right hand frequency divided by 48.8% left hand frequency equals 1.05. Colemak: 53.2% right hand frequency divided by 46.7% left hand frequency equals 1.14. Hand Balance ratio based on Frequency and Distance is a simple multiplication of the two ratios. I did this because having more frequency and more movement on the same hand amplifies the hand dominance. Or if one hand has more frequency and the other hand has more movement, that would mitigate it to some degree. This is by no means the most definitive way to look at it, but it's what I've managed to come up with. The "Corrected comparison number for left hand dominant" is a hard math thing to explain (that I hope I'm right about anyway). E.g. for Workman listing 0.80 gives the wrong impression the hand dominance is equivalent to 1.2 (20%). But it's actually 1.26 (26%), obtained from 1/0.796=1.26.
I’ve debated how to show this and decided to go with the full nuclear information. Data is from Mayzner revisited in millions (which only has letter bigrams and doesn’t have punctuation data, that’s what the 0’s are).
Notes: This is with index finger pressing C location, how I think most people type. Adding in punctuation the numbers would be higher.
Notes 2: I think some people have misinterpreted what I mean with index pressing C. I mean on the bottom row: Pinky presses Z. Ring presses X. Middle presses nothing. Index presses C, V, B. This is not angle mod, which is: Pinky presses nothing. Ring presses Z. Middle presses X. Index presses C, V, B. Index finger pressing C (not angle) is how I think most people naturally type on a normal ansi keyboard, but it’s hard to know for sure. Most of the time this doesn’t make much of a difference of SFBs. Nerps, APTv3, Canary above have been given as angle mod because that’s what the creators specifically wanted, and it does make a difference. For index pressing C, they go up. Nerps to 38,832, APTv3(ansi) to 30,893. Canary(ansi) to 27,296. On the flip side Middlemak and Middlemak-NH if using the angle mod go down just a tad, not enough to be worth giving numbers. That means Middlemak and Middlemak-NH works for all 3 of index finger pressing C, angle mod, and “proper” ortho typing (Index finger pressing C actually gives the highest SFB count). (I could do yet another chart for 3 total on SFBs, but I think this is enough. Note the ortho chart below for APTv3 and Canary uses their ortho specified layouts.)
Middlemak-NH: This is very impressive and in league with full change layouts. All while keeping Qwerty similarity.
If you want overall percentages with index finger pressing C:
This is from Colemak-DH analyzer. This is quite a bit different and the differences between them are greater. Engram even switches places. This is from a) different corpus used and b) accounting for punctuation. On a) I used Mayzner Revisited which is a massive 5.6 trillion characters (does not have punctuation or spaces). Not sure what Colemak-DH uses but KLAnext considers 1 million to be big and slow. On b) Mayzner Revisited doesn’t have punctuation. Note that Middlemak doesn’t change punctuation while CTGAP, APTv3, and Canary do change them, presumably to reduce SFBs.
Ok I confirmed the big gap is from punctuation. Changing Middlemaks ,./ to ’,. and ’ to / (like Nerps, CTGAP, similar to Canary) gives dramatically lower SFB%. They are listed as (rotate punctuation). I’ll leave it up to the user to decide if they want to change punctuation.
Notes: This is with the middle finger pressing C location, “proper” or ortho style. Same data as above.
If you want overall percentages - middle finger pressing C, Ortho style (Data from Colemak-DH analyzer:
This is from Colemak-DH analyzer. Again quite different. It oddly says Middlemak and Middlemak-NH ortho increases, as opposed to what I found that ortho decreases SFB on both based on Mayzner Revisited. It must come down to the data set used, specifically CT vs CR+CL. And the same as above, the differences between them are larger which again may be from changing punctuation.
Same as above, confirmed the big gap is from punctuation. Changing Middlemaks ,./ to ’,. and ’ to / (like Nerps, CTGAP, similar to Canary) gives dramatically lower SFB%. They are listed as (rotate punctuation). I’ll leave it up to the user to decide if they want to change punctuation. It still oddly says ortho version increases.
*I decided to not include H for Middlemak because of the direction that the bigrams go. (Fyi if H was included, the NHMFKJ would be 31%, and the consonant % minus homerow would still be MFKJ 12%.) But the location of H matters because it’s almost always followed by a vowel. Putting H with the rest of the consonants means the pinballing can start there. Putting H alone on the pinky gives an inside roll.
The way I would read this to make probabilities, eg for Middlemak, would be 1.0*0.8*0.205*0.8...= 0.132 vs Colemak of 1.0*0.8*0.337*0.8...= 0.216 for a quadgram. For a pentagram: Middlemak would be 1.0*0.8*0.205*0.8*0.205 = 0.0269 vs Colemak of 1.0*0.8*0.337*0.8...= 0.0727. You can keep going. Starting with 1.0 to establish the word starts with the consonant on the vowel hand.
There are issues with this, it's based on frequency rather than actual specific _gram information or words.
The Consonant % minus home row is given because the home row is easier to type on. The consonants that are not on home-row are more awkward to move to.
There are more charts at middlemak/wiki that breakdown all the finger distances, frequencies, etc. Very interesting to see if you are concerned about specific finger workload.
submitted by someguy3 to KeyboardLayouts [link] [comments]
QWLDG JFOU: NSRTP YHEIA ZXCVB KM,./Colored changes from Qwerty
Middlemak-NH GitHub download.
This was inspired by Northstars placement of H, which I think he got from Nerps.
This is an extraordinary option of Middlemak. Specific details:
1) The most fundamental change is that it puts all the vowels on one hand and most consonants on the other. This maximizes alternating hands (since 75% of all bigrams are between vowels and consonants) while still maintaining a good amount of Qwerty similarity to make it easy to adopt and keep shortcuts the same.
2) Second, this is a pretty impressive reduction in SFB (from Middlemak) by getting rid of NK, KN, NY, NF, and NM (and even AZ). None of those are humongous, but they do add up.
3) It reduces NFBs (from Middlemak). (Explanations on points 3 and 4 get pretty big, the short of it is that it reduces NFBS, massively reduces rolls, and puts in more alternating.) Full details:
3a) Left pinky: being N reduces the ring-to-pinky NFBs even more. WN, SN, and XN are much less common than WA, SA, XA.
3b) Right pinky: being A is slightly worse because it gets rid of the H inside roll. It basically splits the previous HI inside roll to half IA and half AI.
3c) RIght index: being H reduces NFB by replacing ON with OH.
4) It massively reduces rolls, replacing them with alternating hands. Full details:
4a) Left pinky: being N reduces overall rolls with the pinky by a massive 53%. The inside rolls reduce significantly, and the outside rolls to N go to almost nil.
4b) Right hand pinky: being A reduces overall rolls with the pinky by slight 11%. There is an increase in outside rolls with the pinky (previously having H there meant there was basically no outside rolls).
4c) Right index: being H reduces overall rolls with the index by 45%. There is also an increase in outside rolls (because H to vowels is common), but the reduction from removing N is huge.
Added up the three letters on both hands and it’s an impressive 43% reduction in overall rolls.
5) I expect this would reduce pinballing even more, because H is less common than N in the middle of words and in-between vowels.
6) Putting H, as the sole common consonant, on the same hand with the vowels works very well. H has half its bigrams with vowels and half with consonants, so putting it with the vowels means ~half the bigrams are on the opposite hand. That’s not as high as the vowels (86% of bigrams with consonants), but it’s quite high all things considered.
7) This still maintains a good amount of Qwerty similarity. Not just the ZXCV, but pretty much the whole bottom row of ZXCVB_M,.? including the punctuation. On the top row it keeps QW in the same spots. On the middle row it still “keeps” part of the SRT order. The letters TG and NYJ switch on the same finger as well. I think Qwerty similarity can’t be overlooked to make it easier to learn.
Downsides:
1) It introduces ND and NG on the same hand. These really don’t feel too bad going from pinky to index inside roll. And this is pretty small considering the amount of rolls taken out.
2) The hands are a little more unbalanced, with the right hand doing a bit more. But it’s very reasonable and still more balanced than most layouts. There’s no changing that without moving one of the uncommon letters Q, Z, X, V to the vowel hand, which would create knock on changes and likely result in a full change layout.
Conclusion:
I think this is a great option to maximize efficiency with most vowels and consonants on opposite hands.
(I do find it interesting that my variant changes 3 letters on the homerow. Most variants change letters around the edges.)
Quick thoughts on other layout’s O and centre column NFBs.
One of the issues with putting O on the middle-finger-upper-row is that the EO column has a ton of frequency that pairs with the centre column. Think of Colemak’s HE, but now you have an O as well. I think you have to be careful or they will add up pretty quick.Middlemak (and Middlemak-NH) I specifically put less common bigrams (OY and OK) on the center column. These are also low with E.
Canary(ansi): There are a ton of NFBs with O and the centre column with OF and OM. Canary ortho still has a lot with OM on its centre column.
CTGAP(final/5) has similar NFBs with O and the centre column compared to Middlemak.
MTGAP is top notch in this regard by putting punctuation on the centre column. Very low pairings.
Nerps has a notable handful more than Middlemak with BO/OB. Not huge but not nothing.
(APTv3 doesn’t have the O on the middle finger. Putting O on the ring-finger-upper-row pushes the NFBs further away but imo puts O in a weaker position.)
If people really want I can put in charts for this. Have them in excel but it’s a lot of data.
Quick thoughts on columns
A lot of these layouts share similar columns. For consonants RL, TD, SW. Many vowel clusters are similar. A lot seems to come down to the C and what to do with it. It’s interesting to see Canary put C essentially by itself, which means 4 common letters are put off the homerow. Nerps and CTGAP make SCW. APTv3 makes SC.Moving on, I’ll add some breakdown charts:
Hand balance
Hand balance is a difficult topic. The two most obvious metrics for hand dominance are 1) the frequency of the letters, and 2) the distance the fingers have to travel (which is different from frequency because you don't travel to the home-row). But any pinballing from having too many vowels and consonants on the same hand doesn’t show up in those numbers. Having said that, I’m going to look at frequency and distance.| Keyboard | Vowel Hand | Dominant Hand | Hand Balance ratio based on Frequency | Hand Balance ratio based on Distance | Hand Balance ratio based on Frequency and Distance | Corrected comparison number for left hand dominant |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QWERTY | n/a | Left | 0.77 | 1.06 | 0.82 | 1.22 |
| Norman | n/a | Right | 0.93 | 1.27 | 1.19 | |
| Beakl-15 | Left | Right | 1.07 | 1.48 | 1.59 | |
| Workman | Right | Left | 0.97 | 0.82 | 0.80 | 1.26 |
| Dvorak | Left | Right | 1.23 | 1.86 | 2.30 | |
| Middlemak | Right | Right | 1.05 | 1.06 | 1.11 | |
| Colemak | Right | Right | 1.14 | 1.15 | 1.32 | |
| MiddlemakNH | Right | Right | 1.11 | 1.04 | 1.15 | |
| MTGAP | Left | Right | 1.00 | 1.43 | 1.43 | |
| Nerps(ansi) | Right | Right | 1.06 | 0.98 | 1.04 | |
| Engram | Left | Right | 1.09 | 1.43 | 1.56 | |
| CTGAP(final/5) | Right | Right | 1.16 | 1.23 | 1.43 | |
| APTv3 | Right | Right | 1.11 | 1.01 | 1.12 | |
| Canary(ansi) | Right | Right | 1.30 | 1.29 | 1.68 |
SFB (index finger pressing C)
The SFB of Middlemak is still pretty low, but it does come out a tad higher than Colemak’s. Middlemak-NH comes in lower than Colemak (for index finger pressing C).I’ve debated how to show this and decided to go with the full nuclear information. Data is from Mayzner revisited in millions (which only has letter bigrams and doesn’t have punctuation data, that’s what the 0’s are).
| Keyboard | Total SFB | Left hand SFB | Right hand SFB | L Pinky | L Ring | L Middle | L Index | R Index | R Middle | R Ring | R Pinky |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QWERTY | 185,270 | 125,920 | 59,350 | 1,105 | 1,661 | 54,502 | 68,651 | 34,166 | 3,970 | 21,214 | 0 |
| Beakl-15 | 85,917 | 33,527 | 52,390 | 2 | 21,580 | 3,134 | 8,812 | 18,927 | 31,183 | 2,157 | 123 |
| Workman | 78,147 | 29,268 | 48,878 | 1,105 | 3,712 | 2,806 | 21,645 | 27,338 | 5,037 | 16,503 | 0 |
| Dvorak | 70,570 | 28,306 | 42,264 | 0 | 31 | 0 | 28,275 | 12,142 | 16,265 | 8,229 | 5,629 |
| Middlemak | 44,698 | 25,806 | 18,892 | 1,105 | 1,661 | 2,716 | 20,323 | 12,415 | 3,134 | 3,343 | 0 |
| Colemak | 39,023 | 23,336 | 15,687 | 1,105 | 1,267 | 639 | 20,323 | 9,831 | 5,037 | 819 | 0 |
| MiddlemakNH | 36,570 | 24,999 | 11,571 | 298 | 1,661 | 2,716 | 20,323 | 5,094 | 3,134 | 3,343 | 0 |
| MTGAP | 34,151 | 14,550 | 19,601 | 1,147 | 339 | 3,134 | 9,931 | 4,629 | 8,633 | 5,071 | 1,267 |
| Nerps(ansi) | 34,056 | 20,038 | 14,018 | 76 | 2,745 | 1,435 | 15,783 | 7,541 | 3,134 | 3,343 | 0 |
| Engram | 31,167 | 19,467 | 11,700 | 124 | 2,628 | 3,134 | 13,581 | 5,922 | 1,435 | 2,344 | 1,999 |
| CTGAP(final/5) | 30,915 | 20,125 | 10,790 | 54 | 437 | 6,262 | 13,371 | 4,314 | 3,134 | 3,343 | 0 |
| APTv3(ansi) | 24,947 | 14,697 | 10,251 | 1,227 | 6,551 | 1,435 | 5,484 | 2,643 | 5,037 | 1,751 | 819 |
| Canary(ansi) | 24,537 | 13,103 | 11,434 | 23 | 2,745 | 4,528 | 5,808 | 4,957 | 3,134 | 3,343 | 0 |
Notes 2: I think some people have misinterpreted what I mean with index pressing C. I mean on the bottom row: Pinky presses Z. Ring presses X. Middle presses nothing. Index presses C, V, B. This is not angle mod, which is: Pinky presses nothing. Ring presses Z. Middle presses X. Index presses C, V, B. Index finger pressing C (not angle) is how I think most people naturally type on a normal ansi keyboard, but it’s hard to know for sure. Most of the time this doesn’t make much of a difference of SFBs. Nerps, APTv3, Canary above have been given as angle mod because that’s what the creators specifically wanted, and it does make a difference. For index pressing C, they go up. Nerps to 38,832, APTv3(ansi) to 30,893. Canary(ansi) to 27,296. On the flip side Middlemak and Middlemak-NH if using the angle mod go down just a tad, not enough to be worth giving numbers. That means Middlemak and Middlemak-NH works for all 3 of index finger pressing C, angle mod, and “proper” ortho typing (Index finger pressing C actually gives the highest SFB count). (I could do yet another chart for 3 total on SFBs, but I think this is enough. Note the ortho chart below for APTv3 and Canary uses their ortho specified layouts.)
Middlemak-NH: This is very impressive and in league with full change layouts. All while keeping Qwerty similarity.
If you want overall percentages with index finger pressing C:
| Layout | SFB % |
|---|---|
| Qwerty | 6.264% |
| Beakl-15 | 3.575% |
| Workman | 3.053% |
| Dvorak | 2.639% |
| Middlemak | 2.078% |
| Engram | 1.863% |
| Colemak | 1.815% |
| Middlemak-NH | 1.784% |
| Middlemak(rotate punctuation) | 1.614% |
| APTv3 | 1.420% |
| MTGAP | 1.247% |
| Middlemak-NH(rotate punctuation) | 1.272% |
| Nerps(ansi) | 1.207% |
| CTGAP(final/5) | 1.142% |
| Canary(ansi) | 1.062% |
Ok I confirmed the big gap is from punctuation. Changing Middlemaks ,./ to ’,. and ’ to / (like Nerps, CTGAP, similar to Canary) gives dramatically lower SFB%. They are listed as (rotate punctuation). I’ll leave it up to the user to decide if they want to change punctuation.
Ortho SFB
| Keyboard | Total SFB | Left hand SFB | Right hand SFB | L Pinky | L Ring | L Middle | L Index | R Index | R Middle | R Ring | R Pinky |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QWERTY | 195,687 | 136,337 | 59,350 | 1,105 | 1,661 | 86,462 | 47,108 | 34,166 | 3,970 | 21,214 | 0 |
| Beakl-15 | 85,917 | 33,527 | 52,390 | 2 | 21,580 | 3,134 | 8,812 | 18,927 | 31,183 | 2,157 | 123 |
| Workman | 79,561 | 30,682 | 48,878 | 1,105 | 3,712 | 8,206 | 17,659 | 27,338 | 5,037 | 16,503 | 0 |
| Dvorak | 70,365 | 28,101 | 42,264 | 0 | 31 | 1,591 | 26,480 | 12,142 | 16,265 | 8,229 | 5,629 |
| Middlemak | 42,816 | 23,924 | 18,892 | 1,105 | 1,661 | 14,888 | 6,270 | 12,415 | 3,134 | 3,343 | 0 |
| MiddlemakNH | 34,687 | 23,117 | 11,571 | 298 | 1,661 | 14,888 | 6,270 | 5,094 | 3,134 | 3,343 | 0 |
| MTGAP | 34,151 | 14,550 | 19,601 | 1,147 | 339 | 3,134 | 9,931 | 4,629 | 8,633 | 5,071 | 1,267 |
| Nerps(ortho) | 33,861 | 19,843 | 14,018 | 254 | 2,745 | 1,435 | 15,410 | 7,541 | 3,134 | 3,343 | 0 |
| Canary(ortho) | 31,034 | 19,600 | 11,434 | 179 | 2,745 | 10,897 | 5,780 | 4,957 | 3,134 | 3,343 | 0 |
| Engram | 30,848 | 20,036 | 10,812 | 124 | 2,628 | 6,438 | 10,846 | 9,010 | 1,802 | 0 | 0 |
| Colemak | 30,032 | 14,345 | 15,687 | 1,105 | 1,267 | 5,702 | 6,270 | 9,831 | 5,037 | 819 | 0 |
| Hands Down Nue | 28,429 | 17,012 | 11,416 | 1,267 | 5,702 | 3,773 | 6,270 | 10,334 | 126 | 819 | 138 |
| CTGAP(final/5) | 27,449 | 16,659 | 10,790 | 54 | 437 | 7,826 | 8,341 | 4,314 | 3,134 | 3,343 | 0 |
| APTv3(ortho) | 22,871 | 12,620 | 10,251 | 1,267 | 6,551 | 1,435 | 3,366 | 2,643 | 5,037 | 1,751 | 819 |
If you want overall percentages - middle finger pressing C, Ortho style (Data from Colemak-DH analyzer:
| Layout | SFB % |
|---|---|
| Qwerty | 6.575% |
| Beakl-15 | 3.823% |
| Workman | 3.147% |
| Dvorak | 2.625% |
| Middlemak | 2.160% |
| Middlemak-NH | 1.866% |
| Engram | 1.845% |
| Colemak | 1.669% |
| Middlemak(rotate punctuation) | 1.696% |
| Middlemak-NH(rotate punctuation) | 1.354% |
| APTv3 | 1.375% |
| MTGAP | 1.281% |
| Nerps(ortho) | 1.203% |
| Canary(ortho) | 1.070% |
| CTGAP(final/5) | 1.069% |
| Hands Down Nue | 0.949% |
Same as above, confirmed the big gap is from punctuation. Changing Middlemaks ,./ to ’,. and ’ to / (like Nerps, CTGAP, similar to Canary) gives dramatically lower SFB%. They are listed as (rotate punctuation). I’ll leave it up to the user to decide if they want to change punctuation. It still oddly says ortho version increases.
Pinballing stats
| Keyboard | Vowel % | Consonant % | Consonant % minus home row |
|---|---|---|---|
| Beakl-15 | 100% | HKQJX 7.3% | HKQJX 7.3% |
| Canary(ansi) | 95% | NHMFXZ 29.5% | HMFXZ 18.3% |
| Dvorak | 100% | YPKJXQ 8% | YPKJXQ 8.5% |
| Middlemak | 80% | NMFKJ 20.5% | MFKJ 11.9% |
| Middlemak-NH | 100% | HMFKJ 19.4% | MFKJ 9.3% |
| CTGAP(final/5) | 100% | HDFYKX 25.8 | DFYKX 15.6% |
| APTv3 | 100% | NLQJZ 18.5% | LQJZ 7.3% |
| Nerps(ansi) | 100% | HFBKZ 17.8% | FBKZ 7.6% |
| Colemak | 80% | NHLMKJ 33.7% | HLMKJ 22.4% |
| Workman | 80% | NLFPKJ 26.5% | LFPKJ 15.2% |
| MTGAP | 100% | NPJQZ 15.0% | PJQZ 3.8% |
The way I would read this to make probabilities, eg for Middlemak, would be 1.0*0.8*0.205*0.8...= 0.132 vs Colemak of 1.0*0.8*0.337*0.8...= 0.216 for a quadgram. For a pentagram: Middlemak would be 1.0*0.8*0.205*0.8*0.205 = 0.0269 vs Colemak of 1.0*0.8*0.337*0.8...= 0.0727. You can keep going. Starting with 1.0 to establish the word starts with the consonant on the vowel hand.
There are issues with this, it's based on frequency rather than actual specific _gram information or words.
The Consonant % minus home row is given because the home row is easier to type on. The consonants that are not on home-row are more awkward to move to.
There are more charts at middlemak/wiki that breakdown all the finger distances, frequencies, etc. Very interesting to see if you are concerned about specific finger workload.
2023.06.10 18:23 FelicitySmoak_ On This Day In Michael Jackson HIStory - June 10th
 | 1970 - The Jackson 5 perform "The Love You Save" & "ABC" on the Groovy Show TV program in Los Angeles. submitted by FelicitySmoak_ to MichaelJackson [link] [comments] 1972 - Michael third solo single, "I Wanna be Where You Are", on Motown enters the Billboard US Top 40 singles chart at #38. It will peak at #16 during a 9 week run. 1972 - Lookin' Through the Windows by The Jackson 5 on Motown Records enters the Billboard US Black Albums Chart where it will peak at #3 during a 29 week run 1975 - “Forever Came Today” is the last official single of the Jackson 5 released by Motown 1979 - Last concert of the first US leg of the Destiny World Tour at the War Memorial Auditorium (now Greensboro Coliseum) in Greensboro, North Carolina. Tour resumes in October 1993 - Michael makes an appearance at an afternoon rally at a middle school in Los Angeles to launch a new DARE programme called DAREPLUS (‘Play and Learn Under Supervision’) program for the school, an initiative educating children on the perils of substance abuse and gang membership Jackson was a member of the Board of Directors of DARE (‘Drug Abuse Resistance Education’) and he was presented with a t-shirt for which he said: “Thank you very much. I love you all. Thank you.”All members of the 'Challengers Boys & Girls Club' were invited to Neverland 1993 - Michael announces that "HTW"s total earnings of $1.25 million, along with his entire Super Bowl XXVII proceeds from that year will be funneled to "Heal L.A.", for the children having suffered from the Los Angeles’ riots at the time. The Big Brothers of Los Angeles give Jackson a rocking chair made by a woman who made them for President Kennedy and the Pope. Another group of children visiting the ranch get a sneak peak preview of Tom & Jerry: The Movie. The film wasn't scheduled to begin running in theaters until July 30th, but Michael received an advance copy from Joseph Barbera. 1997 - Michael plays the second of two nights at the Amsterdam Arena (now Johan Cruyff Arena) in Amsterdam,Netherlands , to an audience of 50.000. 1999 - Michael is in Paris, France. He stayed one day at Le Crillon hotel as he shopped around the town on his brief stop there for business related meetings 1999 - It is reported that the opening of the first 'Michael Jackson Dance Studio' (formerly announced as the 'Michael Jackson Entertainment School') happened in Tokyo. Michael couldn't attend the inauguration of the school but planned on going soon. 2002 - Michael Jackson arrives in London and checks in the Marriott Renaissance Hotel. 2003 - Michael finally gives his deposition in Indianapolis before going to Merville, Indiana Last month, Jackson he fell ill and was hospitalized before he could be deposed in a lawsuit filed by Gordon Keith (who signed the Jackson 5 to his Gary, Indiana-based Steeltown Records in 1967) and musician Elvy Woodard. The men claim that the Jackson 5 used the name of another Gary band and two of their songs without license. Jackson’s attorney, Bob Meyer, says the suit has no merit, noting that Michael was only 9 years old at the time. The deposition took place at a hotel from 11:21 a.m. to 5:10 p.m “Michael was extremely comfortable today,” he said. “He really surprised me.” Meanwhile, an attorney for the plaintiffs, Norman Reed, described Jackson’s deportment as “jovial,” though he went on to say that Jackson couldn’t answer every question because certain events in question occurred more than three decades ago Later in the evening, Michael was the main attraction at the Circle Center Mall in Indianapolis, as he tried to make his way through the crowds with his entourage to get a little personal shopping done at Brookstone, while also being followed by a mob of fans. https://preview.redd.it/sp4svpszu75b1.jpg?width=592&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d1b1056d939e4aa7bf9e3024ce83f8f231301dcb https://preview.redd.it/serywml0v75b1.jpg?width=592&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c53017f317ede1af988bb0d1d9749de552c1bdd6 https://preview.redd.it/1ndy87z2v75b1.jpg?width=592&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=66a48a5731167222b122a03a92b27b1b933ed1de Michael hires Charles Koppleman as his new business adviser. 2004 - Ray Charles passes away and Michael issues a statement: "I am saddened to hear of the death of my friend, Ray Charles. He was a true legend...an American Treasure. His music is timeless; his contributions to the music industry...unequaled; and his influence, unparalleled. His caring and humility spoke volumes. He paved the way for so many of us, and I will forever remember him in my heart."2005 - Jury Deliberations Day 6 Jurors in the trial will be back again on Monday after ending their first full week of deliberations without reaching a verdict The jurors asked a number of questions today and also requested to have some testimony read back to them. Judge Melville held at least three meetings with attorneys from each side Legal experts say the lengthy and complex instructions issued by the Judge may be responsible for the extended deliberations. "This is a huge, huge celebrity trial, so you can bet that they're going to want to read those jury instructions pretty carefully," said Donna Shestowsky, a law professor at the University of California. Shari Seidman Diamond, a law professor at Northwestern University, agreed: "Running through these instructions is the use of words that are real words in everyday life that have different legal meanings." She said that terms such as "attempt," "reasonable" and "conspiracy" have specific meaning in criminal law and "we know that makes instructions harder to deal with." Diamond said that judges could make jury instructions more palatable but rarely did so as they were more concerned with making sure the instructions were unflawed and would not lead to a reversal on appeal. Peter Tiersma, a member of the California Judicial Council's task force on criminal jury instructions, said it was easier for a judge to simply copy the text of a legal opinion or of a statute in the instructions. He said that no matter how dense or incomprehensible the instructions were, "if you changed it, you risked getting it wrong." As an example, Diamond pointed out that the explanation of 'reasonable doubt' was buried on page 45 of the instructions, which offered little explanation of why jurors should ignore certain pieces of evidence. https://preview.redd.it/g4pfd1hyu75b1.jpg?width=612&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6a542f1df50e258fd78dde3779f904c1b4941bbb About 2,200 journalists received press credentials to cover the Michael Jackson trial, more than the O.J. Simpson and Scott Peterson trials combined. Major TV networks have committed dozens of staff members and some news organizations have even installed land lines, fearing that the explosion of phone calls following a verdict could jam the region's cell phone networks. Reporters from every continent except Antarctica are covering the story, a reminder that Michael's popularity remains intense outside the US. News organizations from more than 30 countries were represented "The appetite for Michael Jackson is insatiable," said Graeme Massie, who has covered the trial for Splash, a British news agency. "In the U.S., people may believe that Jackson's star has fallen, but in Europe it still shines brightly." The case is being closely watched in Japan where they are thinking of moving to a jury system. "People in Japan are interested in the King of Pop, but they also want to know how the jury will treat celebrities," said Wataru Ezaki, who works for a Japanese news organization in Southern California. "They want to see if jurors can be fair. It's a very unique case." Deliberations will resume Monday morning at 8:30 a.m. 2009 - AllGood Entertainment Inc. filed a $40 million lawsuit against Michael claiming breach of contract and fraud in an attempt to stop Jackson from performing in London. The New Jersey-based company filed the suit in federal court in New York stating that it signed a deal with Jackson's manager, Frank DiLeo for a pay per view reunion concert with the other Jackson siblings 2013 - Jackson v AEG Trial Day 26 Katherine Jackson was at court for the morning session Randy Phillips Testimony Jackson direct Panish showed a June 20th email from Tim Leiweke (CEO of AEG) to Dan Beckerman (CFO/COO of AEG) in which Beckerman described Phillips as jittery: "Trouble with Michael. Big trouble."Beckerman responded: "I figured something might be wrong given how jittery Randy has been this week. Is it "pre-show nerves" bad or "get a straight jacket/call our insurance carrier" bad?"Phillips said he was not jittery, but concerned with the show. Jittery meaning shaking and he said he doesn't think that's how he was. Phillips said Dr. Murray receiving $150k per month being the cause of Michael's sickness in June of 2009 never crossed his mind Phillips said he did not recall what was discussed in a phone conversation with Murray. In his video deposition that was shown to the jury, Phillips first said the conversation lasted three minutes. He was shown phone records that showed it lasted 25 minutes. Phone records show Phillips had a 25 minute phone call with Conrad Murray after Kenny Ortega's emails on June 20, 2009. Phillips said he didn't think the call lasted that long, doesn't recall what they talked about. "It's very possible I might have even read him these emails," Phillips testified, referring to the "Trouble at the Front" chain. "I would not have discussed his health other than what it was in the content of the emails" Phillips said everyone in the This Is It production got a list with everyone's phone numbers. He doesn't know how Dr. Murray got the list. Phillips was asking about how Conrad Murray got his home phone number. He initially said it might have been on a list given to tour personnel. Phillips then said that Murray may have gotten it from Jackson's former manager, Frank Dileo. Phillips testified that Dr. Murray called his home number. Panish showed picture of the business card Phillips gave Dr. Murray with his cell number on the back. The card was found in the doctor's car. Panish then asked Phillips about an email he sent director Kenny Ortega, telling him Murray was "unbiased and ethical", the email serves as Phillips' best recollection of his conversation with Dr. Murray. This morning, Panish frequently asked Randy Phillips whether he was truthful with Ortega. Panish: "Did you make that up and lie to Mr. Ortega?"Panish talked about email Phillips wrote to Ortega on Jun 20: "Kenny, it's critical that neither you, me or anyone else around this show become amateur psychiatrist or physicians. I had a lengthy conversation with Dr. Murray, who I'm gaining immense respect for as I get to deal with him more. He said that Michael is not only physically equipped to perform and, that discouraging him to, will hasten his decline instead of stopping it. Dr. Murray also reiterated that he's mentally able to and was speaking to me from the house where he has spent the morning with Michael. This doctor is extremely successful (we check everyone out) and does not need this gig so he is totally unbiased and ethical. It is critical we surround Michael with love and support and listen to how he wants to get ready for July 13th... You cannot imagine the harm and ramifications of stopping this show now. It would far outweigh "calling this game in the 7th inning". I'm not just talking about AEG's interests here, but the myriad of stuff/lawsuits swirling around Michael that I crisis manage every day and also his well-being. I am meeting with him today at 4p at the Forum. Please stay steady. Enough alarms have sounded. It is time to out out the fire, not burning the building down. Sorry for all the analogies. Randy"Phillips said he thought Dr. Murray was extremely successful based on the clinics he had and business he would've to close to go on tour. Phillips: "It was an assumption I made"As to the "we check everyone out" reference in the email, Panish asked if that was a true statement or untrue. Phillips: "It's not, it's hard to say yes or no on that. It is not true because everyone would imply everyone"Panish asked about the reference "he doesn't need the gig". "I made another assumption based on the information I had," Phillips explained, "I didn't have any basis to say he was unbiased and ethical" Panish used the email to try to show that 3 people _ Ortega, Murray and John Hougdahl _ were warning Phillips about Jackson's health. Phillips said Murray didn't agree with the assessments of Michael's health by Ortega and Hougdahl (the tour production manager). After multiple questions, Phillips said many of the statements in the email about Murray weren't true. Those statements included that AEG Live checked everyone out, and that Murray was an accomplished doctor who was unbiased and ethical. "At the time, I thought it was the truth", Phillips said of the above statements Phillips testified he wrote email to Sony exec asking her to remind him to tell her where Dr Murray was the night he was to be caring for Michael. Judge only allowed plaintiffs' attorney to say it was a social establishment, but the place was a strip club Panish then asked Phillips about the suggestion that Jackson needed a psychiatrist. Phillips confirmed what he said last week -- he never consulted a psychiatrist. He said today it wouldn't have been appropriate. As to having a mental health professional, "no one brought a psychiatrist," Phillips said, "because Michael didn't need one" Phillips testified he had conflicting information coming from Dr. Murray and Kenny Ortega regarding Michael. Panish pressed Phillips about the fact that he sent completely opposite emails to Ortega and AEG high ups. "It was because they were sent for different purposes," Phillips explained. Of the statements to Ortega, Phillips told the jury: "I just wanted to calm things down until we had this meeting"Before the morning break, Panish showed some of the emails he showed Phillips last week. Panish only had his copy, which had notes on it. Panish gave Phillips his annotated version of the email, but Phillips refused to look at them. Flipped them over so he couldn't see them. "I don't want to help you with your case", Phillips said of reviewing Panish's annotated copies of the emails. That brought some laughter. Phillips was ultimately given a clean copy of the emails, provided by his defense lawyers. Phillips said he remembers the meeting on June 20th lasted at least an hour. Dr. Murray and Phillips were sitting on one couch, Michael was on a bench and Ortega on another couch. In his deposition, Phillips said Ortega talked about Michael's physical and mental status. On the stand today, Phillips explained Ortega did very little talking in the meeting. "He addressed Michael coming to rehearsals. I do not believe he talked about Michael's physical condition and mental state. Dr. Murray did most of the talking," Phillips testified. Panish pressured Phillips about him changing the testimony. "My memory is getting better about the events of four years ago," Phillips said. "The purpose of the meeting was to find out what was happening with Michael because of the events on the 19th" Panish: "Did Mr. Ortega say he was concerned Michael was not getting enough sleep?"Without getting into details, Phillips said Ortega and Murray "were a little combative" at the meeting. Phillips said Murray reassured everyone that Jackson's health was fine. He said Jackson also assured them nothing was wrong with him. He said Murray told the group that Jackson may have had the flu, or some similar ailment. He said Jackson's health was discussed. Phillips said he couldn't recall whether Jackson's sleep issues were discussed. A portion of Randy Phillips' deposition was played in which he said sleep issues were discussed at the June 20, 2009 meeting The meeting happened in the afternoon, Phillips said. Panish asked if Michael was shaking in that meeting. Phillips said "No, not at all" A vase was broken in one of the production meetings, Phillips explained. He said Frank Dileo, Paul Gongaware & himself were present. Phillips said he doesn't know who broke the vase, but he thinks it may have been Frank DiLeo. Phillips denied a vase was broken during the June 20th meeting at Michael's house. Panish: "Did you have a meeting with Michael where you threatened to pull the plug and take everything he had?"Phillips said Michael was a phenomenal father & denied ever saying to anyone at the meeting that Michael was on skid row or going to become homeless. Panish: "Did you ever tell Michael you were paying for his toilet paper?"Phillips denied that Murray said during the June 20th meeting that he "couldn't take it anymore." Phillips denied that Murray's contract was discussed at the meeting, saying that would have been inappropriate. Phillips was also again asked about emails a couple of AEG executives (former CEO Tim Leiweke and Dan Beckerman) traded about him. The email described Randy Phillips as jittery, and alluded to either him or Jackson having a "mental breakdown." Phillips denied he was having a mental breakdown, and said he didn't want to put words in the other executives' mouths. In the deposition played to the jury, Tim Leiweke said the reference to "mental breakdown" in the email could've been to Randy Phillips not Michael. Panish played depo of Dan Beckerman, in which he said he didn't recall what prompted him to say Phillips was jittery. Panish: "Did you think that Michael needed a straight jacket?"Phillips said it was a question of "stage fright and the show will go on" or "I can't do this let's cancel" scenario. Panish: "Do you think Michael needed a straight jacket?"Regarding the straight jacket email, Phillips said the way he read it he can't tell if it was referring to him or Michael. Panish pointed out that insurance was only if Michael had a break down, not Phillips. Thus, the email must've referred to Michael Questioning then moved back to the June 20th meeting, with Phillips describing Murray as "demonstrative" toward director Kenny Ortega. Phillips said Murray's message to Ortega was essentially "stay in your lane" and not to interfere with medical issues. "The meeting got a little bit heated when Dr. Murray was admonishing Kenny," Phillips recalled, but said hostile is too harsh of a word. Phillips said lack of sleep was discussed in the June 20th meeting, but wasn't the main focus. Phillips said the reason of the meeting was to find out what happened in the night before, what was the issue and also Michael missing rehearsals. Phillips said Michael had the best two rehearsals after the June 20th meeting. "Kenny told Michael to take the next two days off, spend some time with the kids," Phillips testified. Phillips was then asked about emails he sent to Leiweke, others, about the results of the June 20th meeting at Jackson's house. This was after Jackson's attorney, John Branca, earlier in the day had suggested a counselor to work with Jackson. Phillips email: "Anyway, things are not as bleak as Kenny's emails. John, now is not the right time to introduce a new person into his life"After this email is when Phillips made the "badgering" comment to Panish that prompted Judge Palazuelos' admonition to him. Suddenly, judge decides to take a break at 2:24 pm and sends the jury out of the courtroom. Outside the presence of the jurors, judge admonished Phillips for not answering the questions asked. "Mr. Phillips you need to answer questions," said Judge Yvette Palazuelos, frustrated. "Lawyers are trying to getting the answers." Judge told Phillips that arguing with the lawyers isn't really going to help his case, it will just lengthen his testimony. She noted his testimony is taking much longer than expected, and at this pace he will be here for another week. Phillips told the judge he's just trying not to say the wrong things or be caught in tricky questions. Judge: "It seems like they are pretty straight forward questions, but when you offer info, it may not be good for you" AEG's attorney Jessica Bina defends Phillips saying the questions are compound, but that she believes he's trying to answer the questions. Panish said he wants to finish today, that he hasn't argued with the witness or judge. "I really tried hard, for me, it's hard!" Panish said. Phillips said he understood and wants to go back to work as well. Promised to be better. Phillips said the email he wrote saying "this guy is trying to concern me" was referring to Kenny Ortega. "I had two concerns: wanted Kenny to be open minded until the meeting and I didn't want Kenny to quit," Phillips explained. At this point they were about $30 million plus in advance, Panish said. Phillips said it was about $28 million, which was a lot of money. Email on 3/13/09 from Leiweke to Phillips: "Phil (Anschutz) can be such a paranoid scrooge. He thinks he's smarter than everyone"After a break and admonition, Phillips testified about some of his concerns surrounding the show.He said he was concerned about Ortega. Phillips said he was concerned that Ortega as getting into an "entrenched position" regarding Jackson's health and rehearsals. Phillips: "I was also quite concerned that Kenny would throw up his hands in the air and quit."The CEO was talking directly to the jury. Phillips said again that his concern with Ortega was that he wasn't going into the meeting with an open mind and that he was going to quit. Panish played Phillips deposition where he said he didn't remember what he was concerned about regarding Ortega. "I think my answer today is clarification," Phillips said, adding he did not change his testimony. Panish questioned whether his description was something he "just remembered right now." Phillips responded, "I'm remembering a lot of things now." Panish shot back that Phillips hadn't remembered many things during his deposition. In his depo, played to the jury, Phillips said there were no discussions on June 20th about Michael taking a couple of days off. However, in court today, Phillips testified Ortega suggested that he take two days off After the June 20th meeting, Jackson took two days off and resumed rehearsals. At that point, Phillips began working out of Staples Center. Phillips said one of the changes to come out of the June 20th meeting was that he would be at Staples, looking in on rehearsals. Phillips was also shown an email from his assistant, looking for a physical therapist for Jackson on June 22, 2009 At this point, Phillips was asked about Arnold Klein. He was shown a June 23rd email from Jackson's business manager Michael Kane. Kane: "On the list of doctors that will help get (us) from today to the opening night, where does Arnold Klein stand on the list?"Phillips responded about Klein: "He scares us to death because he is shooting him up with something"Kane responded: "Well since we owe him $48k and he wants payment maybe I should stop paying him and he'll stop shooting him up. I have the details of what he is doing"Phillips told jurors the email was a response to a $48,000 bill that Jackson's manager received for the treatments by Dr. Arnold Klein. The treatments included numerous shots of cosmetic drugs such as Restalyne and botox, as well as other unidentified intramuscular shots, Phillips said, citing the bill. Phillips said he maintains his position that he didn't know what, if anything, any doctor was giving Michael. Phillips was asked about Jackson's rehearsals on June 23 and 24. He said he couldn't remember which songs were performed which day. Phillips said he watched them in its entirety, which lasted about 3 hours. He said Michael was engaged about an hour and a half to two hours. Panish: "Michael never did the whole show, did he, sir?"On 6/25/09 the insurance broker wrote to Dr. Murray at 12:54:15 pm, probably London time (approximately 5am LA time): " We are dealing with a matter of great importance and your urgent attention would be greatly appreciated"The email talked about getting Michael's medical records. Phillips said he learned from the media that Dr. Murray had been treating Michael since 2006. Panish: "This is Dr. Murray doing something to help AEG get insurance, fair enough?"On 8/18/09 Phillips wrote email to Michael Roth: "I think I know what Michael died of and this would exonerate Conrad"Lionel Richie's ex-wife Brenda called Philips and said Michael died of a combination of other drugs and Propofol. Phillips said he never told police, the DA or Dr. Murray's attorneys about it because he thought the info was not reliable. Panish: "Did you want Dr. Murray to get exonerated?"Panish played video of Phillips' deposition where he said he didn't remember what the information was but his memory has been refreshed Judge then adjourned session for the day. Trial resumes tomorrow morning. Panish said he has one more hour of questioning. The attorneys estimated Phillips will be done testifying by Wednesday afternoon Court Transcript |
2023.06.10 09:51 The1stCitizenOfTheIn Twitter Files Extra: How the World's "No-Kidding Decision Makers" Got Organized
In honor of this week’s RightsCon and 360/OS Summit, we dug into the #TwitterFiles to revisit the integration of the Atlantic Council’s anti-disinformation arm, the Digital Forensic Research Labs (DFRLabs), while also highlighting its relationship with weapons manufacturers, Big Oil, Big Tech, and others who fund the NATO-aligned think tank.
The Atlantic Council is unique among “non-governmental” organizations thanks to its lavish support from governments and the energy, finance, and weapons sectors. It’s been a key player in the development of the “anti-disinformation” sector from the beginning.
It wasn’t an accident when its DFRLabs was chosen in 2018 to help Facebook “monitor for misinformation and foreign interference,” after the platform came under intense congressional scrutiny as a supposed unwitting participant in a Russian influence campaign.
Press uniformly described DFRLabs as an independent actor that would merely “improve security,” and it was left to media watchdog FAIR to point out that the Council was and is “dead center in what former President Obama’s deputy national security advisor Ben Rhodes called ‘the blob.’”
What’s “the blob”? FAIR described it as “Washington’s bipartisan foreign-policy consensus,” but thanks to the Twitter Files, we can give a more comprehensive portrait.
In the runup to the 360/OS event in that same year, 2018, Graham Brookie of the Atlantic Council boasted to Twitter executives that the attendees would include the crème de la crème of international influence, people he explained resided at the “no-kidding decision-maker level”
Similar correspondence to and from DFRLabs and Twitter outlined early efforts to bring together as partners groups that traditionally served as watchdogs of one another.
Perhaps more even than the World Economic Forum meetings at Davos or gatherings of the Aspen Institute in the US, the Atlantic Council 360/OS confabs are as expansive a portrait of the Censorship-Industrial Complex as we’ve found collected in one place.
In October 2018, DFRLab was instrumental in helping Facebook identify accounts for what became known as “the purge,” a first set of deletions of sites accused of “coordinated inauthentic behavior.”
Facebook in its announcement of these removals said it was taking steps against accounts created to “stir up political debate,” and the October 2018 “purge” indeed included the likes of Punk Rock Libertarians, Cop Block, and Right Wing News, among others. Even the progressive Reverb Press, founded by a relatively mainstream progressive named James Reader, found his site zapped after years of pouring thousands of dollars a month into Facebook marketing tools.
In the years since, DFRLab has become the central coordination node in the Censorship Industrial Complex as well as a key protagonist in the Election Integrity Partnership and the Virality Project.
Its high-profile role at RightsCon, the biggest civil society digital rights event on the calendar, should concern human rights and free expression activists.
According to their London 2019 event “360/OS brings together journalists, activists, innovators, and leaders from around the world as part of our grassroots digital solidarity movement fighting for objective truth as a foundation of democracy.”
Their Digital Sherlocks program aims to “identify, expose, and explain disinformation.”
The Twitter Files reveal DFRLabs labeled as “disinformation” content that often turned out to be correct, that they participated in disinformation campaigns and the suppression of “true” information, and that they lead the coordination of a host of actors who do the same.
Twitter Files #17 showed how DFRLabs sent Twitter more than 40,000 names of alleged BJP (India’s ruling nationalist party) accounts that they suggested be taken down.
DFRLab said it suspected these were “paid employees or possibly volunteers.” However as Racket’s Matt Taibbi noted, “the list was full of ordinary Americans, many with no connection to India and no clue about Indian politics.”
Twitter recognized there was little illegitimate about them, resulting in DFRLabs pulling the project and cutting ties with the researcher.
Twitter Files #19 further revealed DFRLab was a core partner in the Election Integrity Partnership (EIP), which “came together in June of 2020 at the encouragement of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security’s Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, or CISA” in order to “fill the gaps legally” that government couldn’t.
As a result, there are serious questions as to whether the EIP violated the US First Amendment.
DFRLabs was also a core partner on the Virality Project, which pushed its seven Big Tech partners to censor “stories of true vaccine side-effects.”
The Stanford Internet Observatory, which led the project, is now being sued by the New Civil Liberties Alliance for its censorship of “online support groups catering to those injured by Covid vaccines.”
Debate as to the frequency of serious adverse events is ongoing, however. The German health minister put it at 1 in 10,000, while others claim it is higher.
The Virality Project sought to suppress any public safety signals at all. The Stanford Internet Observatory is also at the moment reportedly resisting a House Judiciary Committee subpoena into its activities.
TwitterFiles #20 revealed some of the Digital Forensic Lab’s 2018 360/0S events, which brought together military leaders, human rights organizations, the Huffington Post, Facebook and Twitter, Edelman (the world’s biggest PR firm), the head of the Munich Security Conference, the head of the World Economic Forum (Borge Brende) a former President, Prime Minister and CIA head, intel front BellingCat and future Nobel Peace Prize winner Maria Ressa, all to combat “disinformation.” We can now reveal more.
The Atlantic Council is a NATO-aligned think tank established in 1961. Its board of directors and advisory board are a Who’s Who of corporate, intelligence and military power, including:
- James Clapper – former Director of National Intelligence whose tenure included overseeing the NSA during the time of the Snowden leaks. Asked whether intelligence officials collect data on Americans Clapper responded “No, sir,” and, “Not wittingly.” Clapper also coordinated intelligence community activity through the early stages of Russiagate, and his office authored a key January 2017 report concluding that Russians interfered in 2016 to help Donald Trump. Clapper has been a 360/OS attendee.
- Stephen Hadley, United States National Security Advisor from 2005 to 2009 (also a 360/OS attendee)
- Henry Kissinger, former US Secretary of State who oversaw the carpet bombing of Vietnam, among other crimes against humanity
- Pfizer CEO Anthony Bourla
- Stephen A. Schwarzman, Chairman, CEO, and Co-Founder, The Blackstone Group
- Meta’s President for Global Affairs, Nick Clegg
- Richard Edelman, CEO of the world’s largest PR firm (and 360/OS attendee)
- The Rt. Hon. Lord Robertson of Port Ellen, Former Secretary General of NATO
- Ambassador Robert B. Zoellick, Former President of the World Bank
- Leon Panetta, former US Secretary of Defense & CIA Director. Panetta oversaw the US’s massive growth in drone strikes.
- John F. W. Rogers. Goldman Sachs Secretary of the Board
Chuck Hagel, chairman of the Council, sits on the board of Chevron and is also a former US Secretary of Defence.
The Atlantic Council raised $70 million in 2022, $25 million of which came from corporate interests.
Among the biggest donors were: the US Departments of Defense State, Goldman Sachs, the Rockefeller Foundation, Craigslist founder Craig Newmark, Google, Crescent Petroleum, Chevron, Lockheed Martin, General Atomics, Meta, Blackstone, Apple, BP, eBay founder Pierre Omidyar, Raytheon, ExxonMobil, Shell, Twitter, and many more.
Ukraine’s scandal-ridden energy company, Burisma, whose links to Hunter Biden were suppressed by the August 2020 table-top exercise coordinated by the Aspen Institute, also made a contribution.
You can view the full 2022 “honor roll” by clicking here.
The Atlantic Council and DFRLabs don’t hide their militarist affiliations.
This week’s OS/360 event at RightsCon Costa Rica runs together with a 360/OS at NATO’s Riga StratCom Dialogue, which DFRLab note they have “worked closely with” “since 2016.”
DFRLabs was founded in 2016, and has been a major catalyst in expanding the “anti-disinformation” industry.
Among non-governmental entities, perhaps only the Aspen Institute comes close to matching the scope, scale and funding power of DFRLabs.
DFRLabs claims to chart “the evolution of disinformation and other online and technological harms, especially as they relate to the DFRLab’s leadership role in establishing shared definitions, frameworks, and mitigation practices.”
Almost $7 million of the Atlantic Council’s $61 million spent last year went to the DRFLabs, according to their 2022 annual financial report.
Through its fellowship program, it has incubated leading figures in the “disinformation” field.
Richard Stengel, the first director of the Global Engagement Center (GEC), was a fellow.
GEC is an interagency group “within” the State Department (also a funder of the Atlantic Council), whose initial partners included the FBI, DHS, NSA, CIA, DARPA, Special Operations Command (SOCOM), and others.
GEC is now a major funder of DFRLabs and a frequent partner
In this video, Stengel says, “I’m not against propaganda. Every country does it, they have to do it to their own population, and I don’t think it’s that awful.”
Stengel was true to his word, and apart from DFRLab, the GEC funded the Global Disinformation Index, which set out to demonetize conservative media outlets it claimed were “disinformation.” (See 37. in the censorship list)
He thought the now-disgraced Hamilton68 was “fantastic.” In total, GEC funded 39 organizations in 2017.
Despite Freedom of Information requests, only 3 have been made public to date.
Roughly $78 million of GEC’s initial $100 million budget outlay for fiscal year 2017 came from the Pentagon, though the budgetary burden has shifted more toward the State Department in the years since.
The Global Engagement Center was established in the last year of Barack Obama’s presidency, via a combination of an executive order and a bipartisan congressional appropriation, led by Ohio Republican Rob Portman and Connecticut Democrat Chris Murphy.
The GEC was and remains virtually unknown, but reporting in the Twitter Files and by outlets like the Washington Examiner have revealed it to be a significant financial and logistical supporter of “anti-disinformation” causes.
Though tasked by Obama with countering “foreign state and non-state propaganda and disinformation efforts aimed at undermining United States national security interests,” its money has repeatedly worked its way back in the direction of policing domestic content, with Gabe Kaminsky’s Examiner reports on the GDI providing the most graphic example.
GEC frequently sent lists of “disinformation agents to Twitter.” Yoel Roth, former head of Trust and Safety referred to one list as a “total crock.” Roth is now a member of DFRLab’s Task Force for a Trustworthy Future Web. Let’s hope he brings more trust than Stengel. You can read more on GEC’s funding here.
Other DFRLab luminaries include Simon Clark, Chairman of the Center for Countering Digital Hate (a UK “anti-disinformation” outfit that aggressively deplatforms dissidents), Ben Nimmo (previously a NATO press officer, then of Graphika (EIP and the Virality Project partners) and now Facebook’s Global Threat Intelligence Lead), and Eliot Higgins of Bellingcat.
Bellingcat has an ominous reputation, which it’s earned in numerous ways, including its funding by the National Endowment for Democracy...
Most recently, Bellingcat assisted in the arrest of the 21-year-old Pentagon leaker, further speeding up the abandonment of the Pentagon Papers Principal where the media protected, rather than persecuted, leakers.
Bellingcat was part of 360/OS backroom meetings with former intel chiefs, the head of Davos and the Munich security conference among many others, as we will see soon.
The Virality Project built on the EIP and had partnerships with Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, Youtube, Google, TikTok and more to combat vaccine “misinformation.”
Stanford and DFRLab partnered with the University of Washington’s Center for an Informed Public, Graphika, NYU Tandon School of Engineering and Center for Social Media and Politics, and the National Congress on Citizenship.
Through a shared Jira ticketing system they connected these Big Tech platforms together, with Graphika using sophisticated AI to surveil the online conversation at scale in order to catch “misinformation” troublemakers.
VP went far beyond any kind of misinformation remit, most infamously recommending to their Big Tech partners that they consider “true stories of vaccine side effects” as “standard misinformation on your platform.”
A Virality Project partner called the Algorithmic Transparency Initiative (a project of the National Congress on Citizenship) went further.
Their Junkipedia initiative sought to address “problematic content” via the “automated collection of data” from “closed messaging apps,” and by building a Stasi-like “civic listening corps,” which in recent years has taken on a truly sinister-sounding mission.
The current incarnation might as well be called “SnitchCorps,” as “volunteers have an opportunity to join a guided monitoring shift to actively participate in monitoring topics that disrupt communities”
Garret Graff, who oversaw the Aspen Hunter Biden table-top exercise, was chairman of that same National Congress on Citizenship when they collaborated on the Virality Project.
Both EIP and VP were led by Renee DiResta of the Stanford Internet Observatory, a former CIA fellow who engineered the now disgraced New Knowledge initiative, which developed fake Russian bots to discredit a 2017 Alabama senate race candidate, as acknowledged by the Washington Post.
DFRLab are the elite of the “anti-disinformation” elite.
They work closely with a wide range of actors who have participated in actual disinformation initiatives.
Here they’re invited to an elite Twitter group set up by Nick Pickles of “anti-disinformation” luminaries First Draft, also participants in the Hunter Biden laptop tabletop, and the Alliance for Security Democracy, part of the RussiaGate Hamilton68 disinformation operation.
The 360/OS event marries this tarnished record with the financial, political, military, NGO, academic and intelligence elite. Some of this is visible through publicly available materials.
Twitter Files however reveal the behind the scenes, including closed door, off-the-record meetings.
“I’ve just arrived in Kyiv” Brookie notes in 2017, as he seeks to line up a meeting with Public Policy Director Nick Pickles as they discuss Twitter providing a USD $150K contribution to OS/360 (seemingly secured), and to garner high level Twitter participation.
Pickles is visiting DC and Brookie suggests he also meet with the GEC and former FBI agent Clint Watts of Hamilton 68 renown. “Happy to make those connections,” he chimes.
360/OS events are elite and expensive — $1 million according to Brookie — so closer collaboration with Twitter, especially in the form of funding, is a high priority.
Twitter offers $150,000
When Brookie mentions the attendees at the “no-kidding decision maker level” he isn’t kidding.
Parallel to the 360/OS public program is the much more important off-the-record meeting of “decision makers ranging from the C-Suite to the Situation Room.”
Here, he is explicit about a convening of military and financial power.
Vanguard 25 is presented as a way to “create a discreet and honest way to close the information gap on challenges like disinformation between key decision makers from government, tech, and media.”
The document boasts of its high-level participants
More are revealed in email exchanges, including Madeleine Albright and the head of the WEF
They go on to list a bizarre mishmash of media leaders, intelligence officials, and current or former heads of state
...Germany’s Angela Merkel was out of reach in the end, but many of the others attended this behind the scenes meeting on “disinformation.” Who are they?
- Matthias Dopfner – CEO and 22% owner of German media empire Axel Springer SE, the biggest media publishing firm in Europe
- Borge Brende – head of the World Economic Forum and former Norwegian foreign minister
- Toomas Hendrick Ilves – former President of Estonia who co-chairs the World Economic Forum’s Global Futures Council on Blockchain Technology. Hendrick is also a fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (where the Stanford Internet Observatory is housed) and is on the advisory council of the Alliance for Securing Democracy, of Hamilton 68 renown.
- Chris Sacca – billionaire venture capitalist
- Mounir Mahjoubi – previously Digital Manager for President Macron’s presidential campaign, and former Chairman of the French Digital Council
- Reid Hoffman – billionaire and Linkedin co-founder
- Ev Williams – Former CEO of Twitter and on the Twitter board at the time
- Kara Swisher – New York Times opinion writer, who founded Vox Media Recode
- Wolfgang Ischinger - Head of the Munich Security Conference
- Aleksander Kwasniewski – Former President of Poland. Led Poland into NATO and the EU.
- Richard Edelman – CEO of the largest PR company in the world
- Elliot Shrage – previously Vice-President of Public Policy at Facebook (DFRLab had election integrity projects with Facebook)
- Lydia Polgreen – Huffington Post Editor in Chief
- Jim Clapper –former US Director of National Intelligence
- Maria Ressa – co-founder of Rappler and soon to be winner of the Nobel Peace Prize
Why would such a group all gather specifically around the question of “disinformation”?
Is disinformation truly at such a level that it requires bringing together the world’s most popular author with military and intelligence leaders, the world’s biggest PR company, journalists, billionaires, Big Tech and more?
Or is this work to build the case that there is a disinformation crisis, to then justify the creation of a massive infrastructure for censorship? A glimpse of the agenda offers clues
Here the head of the most important military and intelligence conference in the world (Munich) sits down in a closed door meeting with a former Secretary of State and the Executive Vice-Chair of the Atlantic Council.
Which is followed by a closed door session with the Editor-in Chief of the ...Huffington Post and peace-maker Maria Ressa who presented to the same group of military, intelligence, corporate and other elites.
Is the role of a journalist and Nobel laureate to work behind closed doors with militarists and billionaires, or to hold them to account?
At 2022’s OS/360 at RightsCon Ressa conducted a softball interview on disinformation with current US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken.
In testimony last April 2023, former CIA deputy director Michael Morrell stated that Blinken “set in motion the events that led to the issuance of the public statement” by more than 50 former intelligence officials that the Hunter Biden laptop had “all the classic earmarks of a Russia information operation.”
The Twitter Files also revealed that in August 2020 the Aspen Institute organized a table-top exercise to practice how best to respond to a “hack and leak” of a Hunter Biden laptop.
The laptop only came to light however two months later.
In attendance was First Draft (now the Information Futures Lab), the New York Times, Washington Post, Rolling Stone, CNN, Yahoo! News, Facebook, Twitter and more.
Here, DFRLab head Graham Brookie speaks with the Aspen Institute’s Garret Graff, who coordinated the Hunter Biden tabletop exercise.
After it turned out the Hunter Biden laptop was real, and the disinformation operation was more appropriately described as having been led by the likes of Blinken and the Aspen Institute.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E8YTPuTC9xs
The appropriate response is apparently for RightsCon, DFRLab, Blinken and Ressa to put on a nice forum to promote these figures as “anti-disinformation” leaders.
Former DFRLab fellow and intel front Bellingcat founder Eliot Higgins is also invited to the closed door sessions with a former head of the CIA, a former Prime Minister and a President.
How do you keep power accountable when you are in the same cozy club? This theme runs throughout.
Bellingcat is featured heavily at the public sessions also
On the public side, we see Amnesty International participating to further collapse the distinction between those who are meant to hold power to account, and the powerful themselves.
The Iraq war gave us embedded journalists, and the “anti-disinformation” field gives us embedded digital rights activists.
The Department of Homeland Security’s Chris Krebs also joined the closed door session.
Krebs was Co-Chair of the Aspen Institute’s Commission on Information Disorder.
Other members included Prince Harry, the Virality Project’s Alex Stamos (Stanford Internet Observatory) and Kate Starbird (University of Washington and previous 360/OS participant), Katie Couric, and more. Craig Newmark attended as an observer.
Meanwhile Renee DiResta, former CIA fellow and Stanford Internet Observatory Research Director, presented with the former Prime Minister of Sweden.
This was years before she would launch the Virality Project, and take on the bugbear of “true stories of vaccine side effects.”
The President of the Atlantic Council participated in an “off-the-record, “ behind closed doors conversation on “trust” with the CEO of the world’s biggest PR firm, Edelman.
“Public relations” and “trust” may well be opposites, and trust is being destroyed not by the disinformation street crime that these groups claim to target, but by the disinformation corporate crime protected by, or in some cases created by these same people.
Disinformation is real, but its biggest purveyors are governments and powerful corporate interests.
DFRLab and RightsCon show just how far the capture of civil society by elite interests has come. Again, I made a mistake helping to co-organize RightsCon in 2015.
The jumping in bed with the government and Big Tech was arguably there in 2015, though to a much lesser degree.
It now partners with militarists in the form of the Atlantic Council and is an enabler of the “disinformation” grift that is so deeply impacting freedom of speech and expression.
The air-gaps that should separate civil society, media, military, billionaires, intelligence and government have collapsed, and many of these actors have formed a new alliance to advance their shared interests.
If weapons manufacturers funding human rights is considered legitimate then where is the red line? Effectively, there is none.
This collapse however has also been pushed by funders, who have been proactive in asking NGOs to collaborate more with Big Tech and government - something I successfully resisted for my almost 18 years at EngageMedia, critically RightsCon was the only time I let my guard down.
The RightsCon sponsor matrix wouldn’t be out of place at NASCAR
This is the equivalent of hosting a Climate Change conference sponsored by Shell, BP, Chevron, and ExxonMobil.
How do you keep power accountable when Big Tech pays your wage? The “let’s all work together” approach has failed.https://www.racket.news/p/twitter-files-extra-how-the-worlds
The weakest partner, civil society, got captured and we lost.
Many more lost their way and have acquiesced to and often enabled much of the new censorship regime.
2023.06.10 09:37 gigachad_here "LeArN DSA, GrInD LeEtCoDe, GoOgLe 50 LPA sEt"
Very long post, incoming batches please read this. Aimed at helping you make calculated decisions before choosing a branch.
I've been here for 8 months now, and a majority of the people have entered another rat race just after finishing one. Almost everyone wants a career in coding/finance/consulting, blind to every other opportunity in other areas. Wanted to make a post for people writing JEE this year and would be submitting branch preferences.
So I'm gonna get started now
Congrats if you've made it till here XD.
The only subject most people haven't done till 12th grade is CS, and everyone is chasing it in college. The basis? Neighbour uncle told that only IT jobs exist. How ironic - you guys have been involved in such deep calculations and logic and whatnot during JEE, yet while choosing a branch, choose to follow dogmatic, outdated beliefs.
I urge y'all to think for yourself before choosing a branch. If you are going to a tier-1 institute, the last thing to be worried about it is a job. With such a brand name and alumni network, you can get a decent-paying job with half of the effort you put in for JEE, hence please explore other areas as well. This country needs more talented engineers and researchers, and if the top guys too are scared to step out of the comfort zones of coding/finance, what'll the other guys do?
Disclaimer - This post is not aimed as an anti-CS/Eco post, but rather as an awareness post highlighting opportunities in other fields as well. All I request of you is, at least have a look at other areas before choosing an IT job. Also do consult with industry people - reaching out on Linkedin, the usual - for a better perspective.
Godspeed.
submitted by gigachad_here to BITSPilani [link] [comments]
I've been here for 8 months now, and a majority of the people have entered another rat race just after finishing one. Almost everyone wants a career in coding/finance/consulting, blind to every other opportunity in other areas. Wanted to make a post for people writing JEE this year and would be submitting branch preferences.
So I'm gonna get started now
- CSE - The most obvious opportunities are in development (Microsoft/Google/Adobe, etc.), however, there is one more giant coming up now - AI. There's a lot of AI research going on, as you know. The government, with its current policy of reducing dependency on foreign powers, would be looking to develop its own LLMs, etc. The first place they would look is in the tier-1 institutes, IISc, IITs, and BITS. You guys would be the ones developing this, so look at the huge prospects here.
- ECE/EEE/EnI - most underrated. Everyone here grumbles about the course difficulty, which is understandable but do have a look at the opportunities in hand
- The Government is set to reach net zero by 2070, thus there will be a huge demand for solar panels and the like. Moreover, China has a monopoly on solar panel tech, and thus with the ongoing sentiment among companies to reduce China dependency, would be looking for talent elsewhere.
- FAME scheme to boost local EV design and Manufacturing, along with laying the enormous charging infra for the same
- In the AI Goldrush, NVIDIA supplied the shovels (AI Chips), briefly becoming the first semiconductor company to reach 1 Trillion USD evaluation. Do you know that NVIDIA holds a near monopoly over AI Chip Technology, thus other companies would be frantically looking for talented engineers.
- Smart grid integration will require a huge amount of skilled engineers.
- I can keep listing endlessly but you get the idea right, there's a ton of gold up for grabs
- Mech/Manufacturing - another underrated one. Thought to be dead till recently, has some sick opportunities coming up
- Most important is the space race, with countries and companies looking to colonize the next frontier, there will be a lot of demand here. With the Indian Govt. opening up space to private agencies, lot of companies will be coming up and thus, the first places to hunt for talent are tier-1 institutes.
- Defense - Govt is looking to become a net exporter of arms, a very ambitious goal considering that we aren't even among the top 25 exporters. You guessed it, there would be a lot of demand for skilled engineers. With defense startups popping up quite frequently, good opportunity here to become a big company.
- Another point to note here is, we are importing a lot of hi-tech equipment like Rafale jets, and the like from foreign nations like Russia, France, etc. We would need to develop the technology indigenously which requires considerable expertise.
- Make in India - there's been a lot of hype around this, and it seems to go pretty okay as well but such an ambitious project obviously would have a lot of areas of concern like this. Whoever comes up with the best solutions, billions are Up for grabs for them.
- Manufacturing in particular has one more area to capitalize - supply chains. The Govt. introduced a National Logistics Policy last year, a multi-billion dollar project aimed at making the logistics and supply chain infra more efficient.
- Civil - often made fun of. However, there are good opportunities here too
- Saw in one article that almost 50% of the infra that would exist by 2050 doesn't even exist now, which means whoever capitalizes here would win billions in investment from both Govt. and firms.
- Opportunity for research as well - with the rise of climate-related issues, there has been ongoing research for fine-tuning the methods used in the significantly-polluting infra sector, like better cement/steel which contribute to a disproportionately high chunk of CO2 emissions.
- MSc Eco - obvious
- MSc Math - no field operates without Math. Also, Math+CS students get the highest packages regularly.
- MSc Phy - Physics never gets old, new research happens all the time, listing some significant projects underway
- Nuclear Fusion - achieving net energy gain will possibly be the most important achievement of this century - an answer to all climate-related issues.
- All of the things mentioned above in the engineering part involve physics heavily. Only those with deep knowledge of physics can bring about revolutionary technology
- MSc Chemistry - dealing with the fundamental units of nature can give rise to a lot of new stuff.
- Nanotechnology, Material Sciences - take for example the EV battery. There have been significant investments to increase the range of batteries. Significant research is needed, heavily involving chemistry to develop such batteries
- (MSc Biology too) Biochemistry - advances in gene editing open up the possibility of curing any disease.
- MSc Biology -
- With the advent of the space age, the need for sustaining humans on other planets requires a lot of Biological research - growing food in alien environments, making the human body resilient to adverse conditions
- Genetic engineering as mentioned above
- The elusive cure to canceAIDS - Billions being poured in here, the one who wins wields unimaginable power
Congrats if you've made it till here XD.
The only subject most people haven't done till 12th grade is CS, and everyone is chasing it in college. The basis? Neighbour uncle told that only IT jobs exist. How ironic - you guys have been involved in such deep calculations and logic and whatnot during JEE, yet while choosing a branch, choose to follow dogmatic, outdated beliefs.
I urge y'all to think for yourself before choosing a branch. If you are going to a tier-1 institute, the last thing to be worried about it is a job. With such a brand name and alumni network, you can get a decent-paying job with half of the effort you put in for JEE, hence please explore other areas as well. This country needs more talented engineers and researchers, and if the top guys too are scared to step out of the comfort zones of coding/finance, what'll the other guys do?
Disclaimer - This post is not aimed as an anti-CS/Eco post, but rather as an awareness post highlighting opportunities in other fields as well. All I request of you is, at least have a look at other areas before choosing an IT job. Also do consult with industry people - reaching out on Linkedin, the usual - for a better perspective.
Godspeed.
2023.06.10 08:28 Orixa1 Learning Japanese with VNs - A 2 Year Summary
 | TL;DR: Your favorite untranslated VN is probably a lot more accessible than you think unless it'sK3 like meprovided you're willing to put in the effort to get over that initial hurdle (learning the basics and your first VN). submitted by Orixa1 to visualnovels [link] [comments] Introduction It was exactly two years ago today when I first started learning Japanese, inspired by this amazing post which was linked by someone here. To whoever did that, thank you. That post, along with the discovery of the idea of CI around the same time, changed my idea of language learning forever. I had an incredibly negative experience with second language classes previously, having been mandated to take years of instruction in a second language for school (and learned nothing from it). As a result of this, I thought of language study as a stuffy academic subject similar to math in which adults could achieve some semblance of communication by memorizing grammatical formulas (but never actually get any good, as only children could learn languages). It turns out that this method of teaching is exactly why the vast majority of students fail to learn anything (or if they do, only reach a very low level of proficiency). For me, the idea of learning a language mostly just by doing what I was already doing (reading VNs) was incredibly appealing, and it still drives me to this day. So why post here instead of on LearnJapanese? The reason is because there has already been a series of similar posts there in addition to the one that inspired me. These posts have received increasingly negative reception, with the second one even getting removed by the mods. As far as I'm concerned the truth about how to get good at Japanese is already out over there, whether the majority of the users want to accept it or not. In particular, I've noticed that many of them seem terrified of leaving the safety of their textbooks and consuming actual Japanese content intended for native speakers, which explains the general low proficiency of many of the users and abundance of terrible advice. Leaving another post over there would just be redundant at this point, running the risk of becoming stale. On the other hand, I've noticed a dramatic increase in interest in learning Japanese on this sub recently, with many of the responders giving really good advice (hinting at their proficiency). In fact, it wouldn't surprise me if this sub had the greatest number of proficient L2 Japanese speakers on this website. Similarly, the people asking for advice have been open to the suggestions offered here (hinting that more of them will eventually succeed in their goals). Perhaps there's even someone who will read this post that is unknowingly waiting for a spark of inspiration just like I was back then. If that's the case for even one person, writing this post will be well worth my time. Background Before starting to learn Japanese I was just an L1 English speaker, this should afford me no particular advantage in Japanese, which is about as distant from English as can be imagined. If you know any languages other than English, you already have a distinct advantage over me (just by being more open to different sounds and grammatical structures, even if they are not related to Japanese). I did have two advantages which may or may not have helped to varying degrees. First, I do have an above average memory (particularly long-term memory), which could have possibly helped me to learn words faster than I would have otherwise. Second, I also consumed many hours of Japanese audio over the years (at least 1400 hours of anime audio, not counting VN audio and various YouTube videos). I didn't know any phrases or words beyond the standard cliches, but it probably did help considerably in distinguishing the Japanese phonemes from each other. As a result, I didn't really need to do that much listening practice early on once I learned the meaning of the words in text form. However, I'm not sure this would afford me a particular advantage over anyone else here, as I imagine many of you have also consumed a large amount of Japanese audio (with English subtitles) over the years. In conclusion, I don't think I held an advantage over anyone else at the start, and I'm sure most people could achieve similar (or better) results with the same dedication. Foundations (June 9, 2021 - Oct 27, 2021) To start out, I learned Hiragana and Katakana, through which every Japanese sound can be expressed. There wasn't any special tricks required for this really, I mostly just used this website to memorize them through brute force. Additionally, writing out each character with the proper stroke order also helped solidify the shape in my mind. Around this time I made a Japanese YouTube account (by searching up things using Japanese IME on a fresh account and clicking "Not Interested" on every English video title. Although I couldn't read/understand the vast majority of video titles or comments, I focused on trying to read the Hiragana/Katakana that I could, and I think it helped to get me familiar with how they are used in a natural setting. Overall, this didn't take too long, maybe 4-5 days at most. There's no reason to get hung up on not reading very fast, true mastery of Hiragana/Katakana in terms of speed will only come from seeing and reading them millions of times. It's fine to move on once you stop making mistakes (and everything afterwards reinforces Hiragana/Katakana anyway). It was at this point that I began tackling Kanji by following the standard advice of installing Anki (a spaced repetition flashcard software program that allows you to memorize a huge amount of information in exchange for a small amount of your time each day) and starting Core2k. However, this was where the first real roadblock came up. For some reason, I simply could not memorize more than about 200 words using Core without my reviews piling up and me forgetting everything again. Looking back, I think there were 2 reasons for this. First, words out of context are extremely hard to memorize for a beginner. Second, I had something I'll call "Kanji Blindness", which I'll define as the inability to distinguish Kanji from each other (I saw all but the most simple Kanji as a vague squiggle). Of course, it is impossible to learn a word if you can't tell it apart from every other word. This was the first real point where I considered giving up, since Core2k seemed to work for everyone else without a problem (I still advocate using Core2k if you can, since most other people don't seem to have this "Kanji Blindness" issue). I ended up solving the problem by using KKLC and its accompanying Anki deck. This book essentially teaches you to distinguish Kanji from each other using mnemonics like this one, I also wrote out each character 10 times with the proper stroke order to solidify its form in my mind. Note that I only needed to finish around half the deck ~1100 Kanji before I could distinguish even similar looking Kanji from each other (and by extension gained the ability to memorize an arbitrary number of words). I supplemented this by learning vocabulary using TheMoeWay's Tango N5 Anki deck. IMO, this is an amazing deck for beginners, which has the user memorize the meaning of sentences (which gradually build on each other and increase in complexity) rather than individual words out of context. This has the welcome side effect of implicitly teaching basic grammar as well. At the same time, I also learned some grammar explicitly by using Tae Kim and Cure Dolly, but I won't pretend that I did all that much of it. I think I finished half of Tae Kim and up to around Lesson 30 of Cure Dolly. In general, I hated studying grammar back then and still do. It doesn't help that most of the English language resources for Japanese grammar are quite poor, and fail to accurately convey the nuance of what is being said. Fortunately, it's also the least important part of learning a language, as I've found that when you increase the vocabulary and learn most or all of the words in a sentence, your brain will naturally pick up on how sentences are structured and what sounds "natural" and "unnatural". In general, a grammar guide should be brief, and mostly used to notify you of patterns you should look out for in your immersion. I also started consuming a large amount of "manga" on a particular website famous for its "numbers". You know what it is. Don't lie.Of course, this was done purely as an academic exercise to further my Japanese ability. It's amazing how much you can comprehend on this website with only a few hundred words and the most basic grammar. It's unironically the best source of early reading immersion there is.After all, it doesn't take a genius to figure out what's going on in a given "scene". Secret tip: If you see something you like, click on the author's name, you can nearly always find the chapter in Japanese either on its own or as part of an anthology. The First VN (Oct 28, 2021 - Jan 29, 2022) Around this point the novelty of the active studying had worn off, and I was itching to start trying some VNs for real. With my "Kanji Blindness" gone and some basic vocabulary/grammar, I was ready to challenge the easiest VN I could find. It turned out to be 彼女のセイイキ, which I found with the help of this website that ranks the rough difficulty of a wide selection of VNs. After finishing the setup for mining my own personal deck, I finally started reading. It immediately became apparent that I had vastly overrated my own ability. Because, as it turns out, the jump between "manga" and the "easiest VN" is huge. Although I was adding hundreds of cards to my personal deck, my reading pace was absolutely glacial, with it sometimes taking hours of reading and editing cards just to make 0 progress in the story. This was not helped by the fact that I used monolingual dictionaries from the very beginning. It was a very beneficial decision in the long run (Japanese-Japanese dictionaries better teach the relations between words and proper contexts in which they are used) but harsh on the time needed to create cards in the short run because I needed to confirm each time whether I understood the Japanese definition or not (Of course, at the start I nearly always ended up using the English definition). I started getting anxious, and switched VNs a few times (this only made things worse) because I was fed up with making no progress on 彼女のセイイキ before eventually switching back to it. It was a terrible experience, and for the second time I was on the verge of giving up. But then, something amazing started to happen... Never Give Up For seemingly no reason at all (although I guess looking at it now maybe those cards from the other VNs helped), my progress on 彼女のセイイキ (depicted by the alpha parameter above) began to increase exponentially around the 1200 card mark. This is probably due to the statistics of autholanguage word selection. To put it simply, you need to know a relatively small number of words to understand a large percentage of a given story. I was so excited by this at the time that I read through the rest of the VN like a man possessed despite how bad the story was, eventually finishing it about 3 months after I started. Looking back now, it seems insane that it took so long to read through a <10 hour VN, or that I was so excited about alpha parameters of under 200, but I still consider it my finest achievement in terms of learning Japanese. It probably represents the single biggest leap in terms of my ability (I probably reached the N3 level just by reading this one VN). Its impact can still be seen in the fact that out of all the VNs I've read to this day, 彼女のセイイキ still has the most cards out of any VN in my deck. Subsequent Developments (Jan 30, 2022 - Present) After finishing my first VN, I never experienced anything like the pain of that first read. I've completed four longer VNs since then (フレラバ, 恋と選挙とチョコレート, 月の彼方で逢いましょう, and 千恋＊万花 in that order) and two nukiges. As I did so, I gradually expanded the range of words I'm willing to add to my deck in terms of word frequency first from under 10000, to under 20000, and now under 30000. In general, due to the statistics of language word selection, I think it is more beneficial as a beginner to learn the most common words first, then slowly expand your horizons as you improve. For what it's worth, here's what the above graph looks like today: Progress up to Today The alpha parameter has ceased to be a useful measurement of my ability in recent times, because it now depends almost entirely on the scope of words I'm willing to add to my deck rather than words I'm unable to read. It now fluctuates wildly, but nearly always stays over 1000 except for the very beginning of a new VN. Just for fun, if you take it as a measurement of ability and compare it to the very first day I tried to read a VN (alpha ≈ 10), I'm at least 100 times better at reading now. Other than that, there's not much to say. I cleaned up some of my grammar using Bunpo (not recommended for beginners) and had a really easy time with it after having internalized how sentences are supposed to be structured by reading a lot of VNs. I also studied some Pitch Accent using this website (it's easy to make an account) having been inspired by this post. I can confirm that working your way up through the tests works well and I can consistently hear changes in pitch now. I also started listening to some Japanese ASMR YouTubers every night before I go to bed, and it has definitely helped me sleep better (and improved my listening considerably at the same time). In the last month or so I've gotten a bit more serious about listening and dabbled in some anime with Japanese subtitles. For a long time I didn't really care about listening, as I only wanted to read VNs, but recently it's gotten increasingly irritating only being able to "almost" understand more complex sentences when I listen. Benchmarking Progress As a fun experiment, I recently took a mock N1 test from this website to see if I would pass, and I did, but it definitely wasn't the cleanest pass in the world. I could probably improve the score by a decent margin if I studied towards the test (and got better at staying focused during the extremely boring reading and listening sections). I've thought about taking the real one, but decided against it when I saw how expensive it would be to travel to where it's being held (and I don't have much interest in living in Japan anytime soon anyway). My total time spent is listed below (it should be taken as a minimum as a decent bit of time spent at the beginning was not tracked): Reading Time: 519 hours Anki Time: 451 hours Listening Time: 7 hours Total Time: 977 hours Average Time Spent Per Day ~ 45 minutes Conclusion Regardless of your starting point or background, you are overwhelmingly likely to succeed in whatever your goals are with the Japanese language if you manage to read through a single VN. It will probably take less time than you think too. |
2023.06.09 23:31 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023
Good Friday evening to all of you here on StockMarketChat! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023.
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead StockMarketChat. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to u/bigbear0083 [link] [comments]
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023.
S&P 500 notches fourth straight positive week, touches highest level since August: Live updates - (Source)
The S&P 500 rose slightly Friday, touching the 4,300 level for the first time since August 2022 as investors looked ahead to upcoming inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s latest policy announcement.
The broad-market index gained 0.11%, closing at 4,298.86. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.16% to end at 13,259.14. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded up 43.17 points, or 0.13%, closing at 33,876.78. It was the 30-stock Dow’s fourth consecutive positive day.
For the week, the S&P 500 was up 0.39%. This was the broad-market index’s fourth straight winning week — a feat it last accomplished in August. The Nasdaq was up about 0.14%, posting its seventh straight winning week — its first streak of that length since November 2019. The Dow advanced 0.34%.
Investors were encouraged by signs that a broader swath of stocks, including small-cap equities, was participating in the recent rally. The Russell 2000 was down slightly on the day, but notched a weekly gain of 1.9%.
“It’s the first time in a while where investors seem to be feeling a greater sense of certainty. And we think that’s been a turning point from what had been more of a bearish cautious sentiment,” said Greg Bassuk, CEO at AXS Investments.
“We think that as we walk through these next few weeks, that will be increasingly clear that the economy is more resilient than folks have given it credit for the last six months,” said Scott Ladner, chief investment officer at Horizon Investments. “That will sort of dawn on people that small-caps and cyclicals probably have a reasonable shot to play catch up.”
The market is also looking toward next week’s consumer price index numbers and the Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Markets are currently anticipating a more than 71% probability the central bank will pause on rate hikes at the June meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
S&P Sectors for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Indices for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)
Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)
Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
S&P Sectors for the Past Week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)
June’s Quad Witching Options Expiration Riddled With Volatility
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The second Triple Witching Week (Quadruple Witching if you prefer) of the year brings on some volatile trading with losses frequently exceeding gains. NASDAQ has the weakest record on the first trading day of the week. Triple-Witching Friday is usually better, S&P 500 has been up 12 of the last 20 years, but down 6 of the last 8.
Full-week performance is choppy as well, littered with greater than 1% moves in both directions. The week after June’s Triple-Witching Day is horrendous. This week has experienced DJIA losses in 27 of the last 33 years with an average performance of –0.81%. S&P 500 and NASDAQ have fared better during the week after over the same 33-year span. S&P 500’s averaged –0.46%. NASDAQ has averaged +0.03%. 2022’s sizable gains during the week after improve historical average performance notably.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
A New Bull Market: What’s Driving It?
The S&P 500 finally closed 20% above its October 12th (2022) closing low. This puts the index in “official” bull market territory.
Of course, if you had been reading or listening to Ryan on our Facts vs Feelings podcast, you’d have heard him say that October 12th was the low. He actually wrote a piece titled “Why Stocks Likely Just Bottomed” on October 19th!
The S&P 500 Index fell 25% from its peak on January 3rd, 2022 through October 12th. The subsequent 20% gain still puts it 10% below the prior peak. This does get to “math of volatility”. The index would need to gain 33% from its low to regain that level. This is a reason why it’s always better to lose less, is because you need to gain less to get back to even.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
So, what’s next? The good news is that future returns are strong. In his latest piece, Ryan wrote that out of 13 times when stocks rose 20% off a 52-week low, 10 of those times the lows were not violated. The average return 12 months later was close to 18%. The only time we didn’t see a gain was in the 2001-2002 bear market.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
** Digging into the return drivers**
It’s interesting to look at what’s been driving returns over the past year. This can help us think about what may lie ahead. The question was prompted by our friend, Sam Ro’s latest piece on the bull market breakout. He wrote that earnings haven’t been as bad as expected. More importantly, prospects have actually been improving.
The chart below shows earnings expectations for the S&P 500 over the next 12 months. You can see how it rose in the first half of 2022, before collapsing over the second half of the year. The collapse continued into January of this year. But since then, earnings expectations have steadily risen. In fact, they’ve accelerated higher since mid-April, after the last earnings season started. Currently, they’re higher than where we started the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Backing up a bit: we can break apart the price return of a stock (or index) into two components:
I decomposed annual S&P 500 returns from 2020 – 2023 (through June 8th) into these two components. The chart below shows how these added up to the total return for each year. It also includes:
- Earnings growth
- Valuation multiple growth
- The bear market pullback from January 3rd, 2022, through October 12th, 2022
- And the 20% rally from the low through June 8th, 2023
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
You can see how multiple changes have dominated the swing in returns.
The notable exception is 2021, when the S&P 500 return was propelled by earnings growth. In contrast, the 2022 pullback was entirely attributed to multiple contraction. Earnings made a positive contribution in 2022.
Now, multiple contraction is not surprising given the rapid change in rates, as the Federal Reserve (Fed) looked to get on top of inflation. However, they are close to the end of rate hikes, and so that’s no longer a big drag on multiples.
Consequently, multiple growth has pulled the index higher this year. You can see how multiple contraction basically drove the pullback in the Index during the bear market, through the low. But since then, multiples have expanded, pretty much driving the 20% gain.
Here’s a more dynamic picture of the S&P 500’s cumulative price return action from January 3rd, 2022, through June 8th, 2023. The chart also shows the contribution from earnings and multiple growth. As you can see, earnings have been fairly steady, rising 4% over the entire period. However, the swing in multiples is what drove the price return volatility.
Multiples contracted by 14%, and when combined with 4% earnings growth, you experienced the index return of -10%.
What next?
As I pointed out above, the problem for stocks last year was multiple contraction, which was driven by a rapid surge in interest rates.
The good news is that we’re probably close to end of rate hikes. The Fed may go ahead with just one more rate hike (in July), which is not much within the context of the 5%-point increase in rates that they implemented over the past year.
Our view is that rates are likely to remain where they are for a while. But rates are unlikely to rise from 5% to 10%, or even 7%, unless we get another major inflation shock.
This means a major obstacle that hindered stocks last year is dissipating. The removal of this headwind is yet another positive factor for stocks as we look ahead into the second half of the year.
Why Low Volatility Isn’t Bearish
“There is no such thing as average when it comes to the stock market or investing.” -Ryan Detrick
You might have heard by now, but the CBOE Volatility Index (better known as the VIX) made a new 52-week low earlier this week and closed beneath 14 for the first time in more than three years. This has many in the financial media clamoring that ‘the VIX is low and this is bearish’.
They have been telling us (incorrectly) that only five stocks have been going up and this was bearish, that a recession was right around the corner, that the yield curve being inverted was bearish, that M2 money supply YoY tanking was bearish, and now we have the VIX being low is bearish. We’ve disagreed with all of these worries and now we take issue with a low VIX as being bearish.
What exactly is the VIX you ask? I’d suggest reading this summary from Investopedia for a full explanation, but it is simply how much option players are willing to pay up for potential volatility over the coming 30 days. If they sense volatility, they will pay up for insurance. What you might know is that when the VIX is high (say above 30), that means the market tends to be more volatile and likely in a bearish phase. Versus a low VIX (say sub 15) historically has lead to some really nice bull markets and small amounts of volatility.
Back to your regularly scheduled blog now.
The last time the VIX went this long above 14 was for more than five years, ending in August 2012. You know what happened next that time? The S&P 500 added more than 18% the following 12 months. Yes, this is a sample size of one, but I think it shows that a VIX sub 14 by itself isn’t the end of the world.
One of the key concepts around volatility is trends can last for years. What I mean by this is for years the VIX can be high and for years it can be low. Since 1990, the average VIX was 19.7, but it rarely trades around that average. Take another look at the quote I’ve used many times above, as averages aren’t so average. This chart is one I’ve used for years now and I think we could be on the cusp of another low volatility regime. The red areas are times the VIX was consistently above 20, while the yellow were beneath 20. What you also need to know is those red periods usually took place during bear markets and very volatile markets, while the yellow periods were hallmarked by low volatility and higher equity prices. Are we about to enter a new period of lower volatility? No one of course knows, but if this is about to happen (which is my vote), it is another reason to think that higher equity prices (our base case as we remain overweight equities in our Carson House Views) will be coming.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lastly, I’ll leave you on this potentially bullish point. We like to use relative ratios to get a feel for how one asset is going versus to another. We always want to be in assets or sectors that are showing relative strength, while avoiding areas that are weak.
Well, stocks just broke out to new highs relative to bonds once again. After a period of consolidation during the bear market last year, now we have stocks firmly in the driver seat relative to bonds. This is another reason we remain overweight stocks currently and continue to expect stocks to do better than bonds going forward.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Our Leading Economic Index Says the Economy is Not in a Recession
We’ve been writing since the end of last year about how we believe the economy can avoid a recession in 2023, including in our 2023 outlook. This has run contrary to most other economists’ predictions. Interestingly, the tide has been shifting recently, as we’ve gotten a string of relatively stronger economic data. More so after the latest payrolls data, which surprised again.
One challenge with economic data is that we get so many of them, and a lot of times they can send conflicting signals. It can be hard to parse through all of it and come up with an updated view of the economy after every data release.
One approach is to combine these into a single indicator, i.e. a “leading economic index” (LEI). It’s “leading” because the idea is to give you an early warning signal about economic turning points.
Simply put, it tells you what the economy is doing today and what it is likely to do in the near future.
The most popular LEI points to recession
One of the most widely used LEI’s is released by the Conference Board, and it currently points to recession. As you can see in the chart below, the Conference Board’s LEI is highly correlated with GDP growth – the chart shows year-over-year change in both.
You can see how the index started to fall ahead of the 2001 and 2008 recession (shaded areas). The 2020 pandemic recession was an anomaly since it hit so suddenly. In any case, using an LEI means we didn’t have to wait for GDP data (which are released well after a quarter ends) to tell us whether the economy was close to, or in a recession.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As you probably noticed above, the LEI is down 8% year-over-year, signaling a recession over the next 12 months. It’s been pointing to a recession since last fall, with the index declining for 13 straight months through April.
Quoting the Conference Board:
“The Conference Board forecasts a contraction of economic activity starting in Q2 leading to a mild recession by mid-2023.”
Safe to say, we’re close to mid-2023 and there’s no sign of a recession yet.
What’s inside the LEI
The Conference Board’s LEI has 10 components of which,
You can see how these indicators have pulled the index down by 4.4% over the past 6 months, and by -0.6% in April alone.
- 3 are financial market indicators, including the S&P 500, and make up 22% of the index
- 4 measure business and manufacturing activity (44%)
- 1 measures housing activity (3%)
- 2 are related to the consumer, including the labor market (31%)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s the thing. This popular LEI is premised on the fact that the manufacturing sector, and business activity/sentiment, is a leading indicator of the economy. This worked well in the past but is probably not indicative of what’s happening in the economy right now. For one thing, the manufacturing sector makes up just about 11% of GDP.
Consumption makes up 68% of the economy, and we believe it’s important to capture that.
In fact, consumption was strong in Q1 and even at the start of Q2, thanks to rising real incomes. Housing is also making a turnaround and should no longer be a drag on the economy going forward (as it has been over the past 8 quarters). The Federal Reserve (Fed) is also close to being done with rate hikes. Plus, as my colleague, Ryan Detrick pointed out, the stock market’s turned around and is close to entering a new bull market.
Obviously, there are a lot of data points that we look at and one way we parse through all of it is by constructing our own leading economic index.
An LEI that better reflects the US economy
We believe our proprietary LEI better captures the dynamics of the US economy. It was developed a decade ago and is a key input into our asset allocation decisions.
In contrast to the Conference Board’s measure, it includes 20+ components, including,
Just as an example, the consumer-related data includes unemployment benefit claims, weekly hours worked, and vehicle sales. Housing includes indicators like building permits and new home sales.
- Consumer-related indicators (make up 50% of the index)
- Housing activity (18%)
- Business and manufacturing activity (23%)
- Financial markets (9%)
The chart below shows how our LEI has moved through time – capturing whether the economy is growing below trend, on-trend (a value close to zero), or above trend. Like the Conference Board’s measure, it is able to capture major turning points in the business cycle. It declined ahead of the actual start of the 2011 and 2008 recessions.
As of April, our index is indicating that the economy is growing right along trend.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Last year, the index signaled that the economy was growing below trend, and that the risk of a recession was high.
Note that it didn’t point to an actual recession. Just that “risk” of one was higher than normal. In fact, our LEI held close to the lows we saw over the last decade, especially in 2011 and 2016 (after which the economy, and even the stock market, recovered).
The following chart captures a close-up view of the last 3 and half years, which includes the Covid pullback and subsequent recovery. The contribution from the 4 major categories is also shown. You can see how the consumer has remained strong over the past year – in fact, consumer indicators have been stronger this year than in late 2022.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The main risk of a recession last year was due to the Fed raising rates as fast as they did, which adversely impacted housing, financial markets, and business activity.
The good news is that these sectors are improving even as consumer strength continues. The improvement in housing is notable. Additionally, the drag from financial conditions is beginning to ease as we think that the Federal Reserve gets closer to the end of rate hikes, and markets rally.
Putting the Puzzle Together
Another novel part of our approach is that we have an LEI like the one for the US for more than 25 other countries. Each one is custom built to capture the dynamics of those economies. The individual country LEIs are also subsequently rolled up to a global index to give us a picture of the global economy, as shown below.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
I want to emphasize that we do not rely solely on this as the one and only input into our asset allocation, portfolio and risk management decisions. While it is an important component that encapsulates a lot of significant information, it is just one piece of the puzzle. Our process also has other pillars such as policy (both monetary and fiscal), technical factors, and valuations.
We believe it’s important to put all these pieces together, kind of like putting together a puzzle, to understand what’s happening in the economy and markets, and position portfolios accordingly.
Putting together a puzzle is both a mechanistic and artistic process. The mechanistic aspect involves sorting the pieces, finding edges, and matching colors, etc. It requires a logical and methodical approach, and in our process the LEI is key to that.
However, there is an artistic element as well. As we assemble the pieces together, a larger picture gradually emerges. You can make creative decisions about how each piece fits within the overall picture. Within the context of portfolio management, that takes a diverse range of experience. Which is the core strength of our Investment Research Team.
Welcome to the New Bull Market
“If you torture numbers enough, they will tell you anything.” -Yogi Berra, Yankee great and Hall of Fame catcher
Don’t shoot the messenger, but historically, it is widely considered a new bull market once stocks are more than 20% off their bear market lows. This is similar to when stocks are down 20% they are in a bear market. Well, the S&P 500 is less than one percent away from this 20% threshold, so get ready to hear a lot about it when it eventually happens.
I’m not crazy about this concept, as we’ve been in the camp that the bear market ended in October for months now (we started to say it in late October, getting some really odd looks I might add), meaning a new bull market has been here for a while. Take another look at the great Yogi quote above, as someone can get whatever they want probably when talking about bear and bull markets.
None the less, what exactly does a 20% move higher off a bear market low really mean? The good news is future returns are quite strong.
We found 13 times that stocks soared at least 20% off a 52-week low and 10 times the lows were indeed in and not violated. The only times it didn’t work? Twice during the tech bubble implosion and once during the Financial Crisis. In other words, some of the truly worst times to be invested in stocks. But the other 10 times, once there was a 20% gain, the lows were in and in most cases, higher prices were soon coming. This chart does a nice job of showing this concept, with the red dots the times new lows were still yet to come after a 20% bounce.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s a table with all the breakdowns. A year later stocks were down only once and that was during the 2001/2002 bear market, with the average gain a year after a 20% bounce at a very impressive 17.7%. It is worth noting that the one- and three-month returns aren’t anything special, probably because some type of consolidation would be expected after surges higher, but six months and a year later are quite strong.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As we’ve been saying this full year, we continue to expect stocks to do well this year and the upward move is firmly in place and studies like this do little to change our opinion.
STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 9th, 2023
([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/11/23
([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)($ADBE $ORCL $KR $ACB $ATEX $ITI $LEN $MPAA $JBL $ECX $POWW $HITI $MMMB $CGNT $WLY $RFIL)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
(NONE.)
Monday 6.12.23 Before Market Open:
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
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Monday 6.12.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Tuesday 6.13.23 Before Market Open:
([CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)
Tuesday 6.13.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 6.14.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 6.14.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 6.15.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 6.15.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Friday 6.16.23 Before Market Open:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!]())
(NONE.)
Friday 6.16.23 After Market Close:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
DISCUSS!
What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!
2023.06.09 23:31 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023
Good Friday evening to all of you here on WallStreetStockMarket! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023.
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead WallStreetStockMarket. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to WallStreetStockMarket [link] [comments]
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023.
S&P 500 notches fourth straight positive week, touches highest level since August: Live updates - (Source)
The S&P 500 rose slightly Friday, touching the 4,300 level for the first time since August 2022 as investors looked ahead to upcoming inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s latest policy announcement.
The broad-market index gained 0.11%, closing at 4,298.86. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.16% to end at 13,259.14. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded up 43.17 points, or 0.13%, closing at 33,876.78. It was the 30-stock Dow’s fourth consecutive positive day.
For the week, the S&P 500 was up 0.39%. This was the broad-market index’s fourth straight winning week — a feat it last accomplished in August. The Nasdaq was up about 0.14%, posting its seventh straight winning week — its first streak of that length since November 2019. The Dow advanced 0.34%.
Investors were encouraged by signs that a broader swath of stocks, including small-cap equities, was participating in the recent rally. The Russell 2000 was down slightly on the day, but notched a weekly gain of 1.9%.
“It’s the first time in a while where investors seem to be feeling a greater sense of certainty. And we think that’s been a turning point from what had been more of a bearish cautious sentiment,” said Greg Bassuk, CEO at AXS Investments.
“We think that as we walk through these next few weeks, that will be increasingly clear that the economy is more resilient than folks have given it credit for the last six months,” said Scott Ladner, chief investment officer at Horizon Investments. “That will sort of dawn on people that small-caps and cyclicals probably have a reasonable shot to play catch up.”
The market is also looking toward next week’s consumer price index numbers and the Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Markets are currently anticipating a more than 71% probability the central bank will pause on rate hikes at the June meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
S&P Sectors for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Indices for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)
Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)
Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
S&P Sectors for the Past Week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)
June’s Quad Witching Options Expiration Riddled With Volatility
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The second Triple Witching Week (Quadruple Witching if you prefer) of the year brings on some volatile trading with losses frequently exceeding gains. NASDAQ has the weakest record on the first trading day of the week. Triple-Witching Friday is usually better, S&P 500 has been up 12 of the last 20 years, but down 6 of the last 8.
Full-week performance is choppy as well, littered with greater than 1% moves in both directions. The week after June’s Triple-Witching Day is horrendous. This week has experienced DJIA losses in 27 of the last 33 years with an average performance of –0.81%. S&P 500 and NASDAQ have fared better during the week after over the same 33-year span. S&P 500’s averaged –0.46%. NASDAQ has averaged +0.03%. 2022’s sizable gains during the week after improve historical average performance notably.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
A New Bull Market: What’s Driving It?
The S&P 500 finally closed 20% above its October 12th (2022) closing low. This puts the index in “official” bull market territory.
Of course, if you had been reading or listening to Ryan on our Facts vs Feelings podcast, you’d have heard him say that October 12th was the low. He actually wrote a piece titled “Why Stocks Likely Just Bottomed” on October 19th!
The S&P 500 Index fell 25% from its peak on January 3rd, 2022 through October 12th. The subsequent 20% gain still puts it 10% below the prior peak. This does get to “math of volatility”. The index would need to gain 33% from its low to regain that level. This is a reason why it’s always better to lose less, is because you need to gain less to get back to even.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
So, what’s next? The good news is that future returns are strong. In his latest piece, Ryan wrote that out of 13 times when stocks rose 20% off a 52-week low, 10 of those times the lows were not violated. The average return 12 months later was close to 18%. The only time we didn’t see a gain was in the 2001-2002 bear market.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
** Digging into the return drivers**
It’s interesting to look at what’s been driving returns over the past year. This can help us think about what may lie ahead. The question was prompted by our friend, Sam Ro’s latest piece on the bull market breakout. He wrote that earnings haven’t been as bad as expected. More importantly, prospects have actually been improving.
The chart below shows earnings expectations for the S&P 500 over the next 12 months. You can see how it rose in the first half of 2022, before collapsing over the second half of the year. The collapse continued into January of this year. But since then, earnings expectations have steadily risen. In fact, they’ve accelerated higher since mid-April, after the last earnings season started. Currently, they’re higher than where we started the year.
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Backing up a bit: we can break apart the price return of a stock (or index) into two components:
I decomposed annual S&P 500 returns from 2020 – 2023 (through June 8th) into these two components. The chart below shows how these added up to the total return for each year. It also includes:
- Earnings growth
- Valuation multiple growth
- The bear market pullback from January 3rd, 2022, through October 12th, 2022
- And the 20% rally from the low through June 8th, 2023
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
You can see how multiple changes have dominated the swing in returns.
The notable exception is 2021, when the S&P 500 return was propelled by earnings growth. In contrast, the 2022 pullback was entirely attributed to multiple contraction. Earnings made a positive contribution in 2022.
Now, multiple contraction is not surprising given the rapid change in rates, as the Federal Reserve (Fed) looked to get on top of inflation. However, they are close to the end of rate hikes, and so that’s no longer a big drag on multiples.
Consequently, multiple growth has pulled the index higher this year. You can see how multiple contraction basically drove the pullback in the Index during the bear market, through the low. But since then, multiples have expanded, pretty much driving the 20% gain.
Here’s a more dynamic picture of the S&P 500’s cumulative price return action from January 3rd, 2022, through June 8th, 2023. The chart also shows the contribution from earnings and multiple growth. As you can see, earnings have been fairly steady, rising 4% over the entire period. However, the swing in multiples is what drove the price return volatility.
Multiples contracted by 14%, and when combined with 4% earnings growth, you experienced the index return of -10%.
What next?
As I pointed out above, the problem for stocks last year was multiple contraction, which was driven by a rapid surge in interest rates.
The good news is that we’re probably close to end of rate hikes. The Fed may go ahead with just one more rate hike (in July), which is not much within the context of the 5%-point increase in rates that they implemented over the past year.
Our view is that rates are likely to remain where they are for a while. But rates are unlikely to rise from 5% to 10%, or even 7%, unless we get another major inflation shock.
This means a major obstacle that hindered stocks last year is dissipating. The removal of this headwind is yet another positive factor for stocks as we look ahead into the second half of the year.
Why Low Volatility Isn’t Bearish
“There is no such thing as average when it comes to the stock market or investing.” -Ryan Detrick
You might have heard by now, but the CBOE Volatility Index (better known as the VIX) made a new 52-week low earlier this week and closed beneath 14 for the first time in more than three years. This has many in the financial media clamoring that ‘the VIX is low and this is bearish’.
They have been telling us (incorrectly) that only five stocks have been going up and this was bearish, that a recession was right around the corner, that the yield curve being inverted was bearish, that M2 money supply YoY tanking was bearish, and now we have the VIX being low is bearish. We’ve disagreed with all of these worries and now we take issue with a low VIX as being bearish.
What exactly is the VIX you ask? I’d suggest reading this summary from Investopedia for a full explanation, but it is simply how much option players are willing to pay up for potential volatility over the coming 30 days. If they sense volatility, they will pay up for insurance. What you might know is that when the VIX is high (say above 30), that means the market tends to be more volatile and likely in a bearish phase. Versus a low VIX (say sub 15) historically has lead to some really nice bull markets and small amounts of volatility.
Back to your regularly scheduled blog now.
The last time the VIX went this long above 14 was for more than five years, ending in August 2012. You know what happened next that time? The S&P 500 added more than 18% the following 12 months. Yes, this is a sample size of one, but I think it shows that a VIX sub 14 by itself isn’t the end of the world.
One of the key concepts around volatility is trends can last for years. What I mean by this is for years the VIX can be high and for years it can be low. Since 1990, the average VIX was 19.7, but it rarely trades around that average. Take another look at the quote I’ve used many times above, as averages aren’t so average. This chart is one I’ve used for years now and I think we could be on the cusp of another low volatility regime. The red areas are times the VIX was consistently above 20, while the yellow were beneath 20. What you also need to know is those red periods usually took place during bear markets and very volatile markets, while the yellow periods were hallmarked by low volatility and higher equity prices. Are we about to enter a new period of lower volatility? No one of course knows, but if this is about to happen (which is my vote), it is another reason to think that higher equity prices (our base case as we remain overweight equities in our Carson House Views) will be coming.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lastly, I’ll leave you on this potentially bullish point. We like to use relative ratios to get a feel for how one asset is going versus to another. We always want to be in assets or sectors that are showing relative strength, while avoiding areas that are weak.
Well, stocks just broke out to new highs relative to bonds once again. After a period of consolidation during the bear market last year, now we have stocks firmly in the driver seat relative to bonds. This is another reason we remain overweight stocks currently and continue to expect stocks to do better than bonds going forward.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Our Leading Economic Index Says the Economy is Not in a Recession
We’ve been writing since the end of last year about how we believe the economy can avoid a recession in 2023, including in our 2023 outlook. This has run contrary to most other economists’ predictions. Interestingly, the tide has been shifting recently, as we’ve gotten a string of relatively stronger economic data. More so after the latest payrolls data, which surprised again.
One challenge with economic data is that we get so many of them, and a lot of times they can send conflicting signals. It can be hard to parse through all of it and come up with an updated view of the economy after every data release.
One approach is to combine these into a single indicator, i.e. a “leading economic index” (LEI). It’s “leading” because the idea is to give you an early warning signal about economic turning points.
Simply put, it tells you what the economy is doing today and what it is likely to do in the near future.
The most popular LEI points to recession
One of the most widely used LEI’s is released by the Conference Board, and it currently points to recession. As you can see in the chart below, the Conference Board’s LEI is highly correlated with GDP growth – the chart shows year-over-year change in both.
You can see how the index started to fall ahead of the 2001 and 2008 recession (shaded areas). The 2020 pandemic recession was an anomaly since it hit so suddenly. In any case, using an LEI means we didn’t have to wait for GDP data (which are released well after a quarter ends) to tell us whether the economy was close to, or in a recession.
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As you probably noticed above, the LEI is down 8% year-over-year, signaling a recession over the next 12 months. It’s been pointing to a recession since last fall, with the index declining for 13 straight months through April.
Quoting the Conference Board:
“The Conference Board forecasts a contraction of economic activity starting in Q2 leading to a mild recession by mid-2023.”
Safe to say, we’re close to mid-2023 and there’s no sign of a recession yet.
What’s inside the LEI
The Conference Board’s LEI has 10 components of which,
You can see how these indicators have pulled the index down by 4.4% over the past 6 months, and by -0.6% in April alone.
- 3 are financial market indicators, including the S&P 500, and make up 22% of the index
- 4 measure business and manufacturing activity (44%)
- 1 measures housing activity (3%)
- 2 are related to the consumer, including the labor market (31%)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s the thing. This popular LEI is premised on the fact that the manufacturing sector, and business activity/sentiment, is a leading indicator of the economy. This worked well in the past but is probably not indicative of what’s happening in the economy right now. For one thing, the manufacturing sector makes up just about 11% of GDP.
Consumption makes up 68% of the economy, and we believe it’s important to capture that.
In fact, consumption was strong in Q1 and even at the start of Q2, thanks to rising real incomes. Housing is also making a turnaround and should no longer be a drag on the economy going forward (as it has been over the past 8 quarters). The Federal Reserve (Fed) is also close to being done with rate hikes. Plus, as my colleague, Ryan Detrick pointed out, the stock market’s turned around and is close to entering a new bull market.
Obviously, there are a lot of data points that we look at and one way we parse through all of it is by constructing our own leading economic index.
An LEI that better reflects the US economy
We believe our proprietary LEI better captures the dynamics of the US economy. It was developed a decade ago and is a key input into our asset allocation decisions.
In contrast to the Conference Board’s measure, it includes 20+ components, including,
Just as an example, the consumer-related data includes unemployment benefit claims, weekly hours worked, and vehicle sales. Housing includes indicators like building permits and new home sales.
- Consumer-related indicators (make up 50% of the index)
- Housing activity (18%)
- Business and manufacturing activity (23%)
- Financial markets (9%)
The chart below shows how our LEI has moved through time – capturing whether the economy is growing below trend, on-trend (a value close to zero), or above trend. Like the Conference Board’s measure, it is able to capture major turning points in the business cycle. It declined ahead of the actual start of the 2011 and 2008 recessions.
As of April, our index is indicating that the economy is growing right along trend.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Last year, the index signaled that the economy was growing below trend, and that the risk of a recession was high.
Note that it didn’t point to an actual recession. Just that “risk” of one was higher than normal. In fact, our LEI held close to the lows we saw over the last decade, especially in 2011 and 2016 (after which the economy, and even the stock market, recovered).
The following chart captures a close-up view of the last 3 and half years, which includes the Covid pullback and subsequent recovery. The contribution from the 4 major categories is also shown. You can see how the consumer has remained strong over the past year – in fact, consumer indicators have been stronger this year than in late 2022.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The main risk of a recession last year was due to the Fed raising rates as fast as they did, which adversely impacted housing, financial markets, and business activity.
The good news is that these sectors are improving even as consumer strength continues. The improvement in housing is notable. Additionally, the drag from financial conditions is beginning to ease as we think that the Federal Reserve gets closer to the end of rate hikes, and markets rally.
Putting the Puzzle Together
Another novel part of our approach is that we have an LEI like the one for the US for more than 25 other countries. Each one is custom built to capture the dynamics of those economies. The individual country LEIs are also subsequently rolled up to a global index to give us a picture of the global economy, as shown below.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
I want to emphasize that we do not rely solely on this as the one and only input into our asset allocation, portfolio and risk management decisions. While it is an important component that encapsulates a lot of significant information, it is just one piece of the puzzle. Our process also has other pillars such as policy (both monetary and fiscal), technical factors, and valuations.
We believe it’s important to put all these pieces together, kind of like putting together a puzzle, to understand what’s happening in the economy and markets, and position portfolios accordingly.
Putting together a puzzle is both a mechanistic and artistic process. The mechanistic aspect involves sorting the pieces, finding edges, and matching colors, etc. It requires a logical and methodical approach, and in our process the LEI is key to that.
However, there is an artistic element as well. As we assemble the pieces together, a larger picture gradually emerges. You can make creative decisions about how each piece fits within the overall picture. Within the context of portfolio management, that takes a diverse range of experience. Which is the core strength of our Investment Research Team.
Welcome to the New Bull Market
“If you torture numbers enough, they will tell you anything.” -Yogi Berra, Yankee great and Hall of Fame catcher
Don’t shoot the messenger, but historically, it is widely considered a new bull market once stocks are more than 20% off their bear market lows. This is similar to when stocks are down 20% they are in a bear market. Well, the S&P 500 is less than one percent away from this 20% threshold, so get ready to hear a lot about it when it eventually happens.
I’m not crazy about this concept, as we’ve been in the camp that the bear market ended in October for months now (we started to say it in late October, getting some really odd looks I might add), meaning a new bull market has been here for a while. Take another look at the great Yogi quote above, as someone can get whatever they want probably when talking about bear and bull markets.
None the less, what exactly does a 20% move higher off a bear market low really mean? The good news is future returns are quite strong.
We found 13 times that stocks soared at least 20% off a 52-week low and 10 times the lows were indeed in and not violated. The only times it didn’t work? Twice during the tech bubble implosion and once during the Financial Crisis. In other words, some of the truly worst times to be invested in stocks. But the other 10 times, once there was a 20% gain, the lows were in and in most cases, higher prices were soon coming. This chart does a nice job of showing this concept, with the red dots the times new lows were still yet to come after a 20% bounce.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s a table with all the breakdowns. A year later stocks were down only once and that was during the 2001/2002 bear market, with the average gain a year after a 20% bounce at a very impressive 17.7%. It is worth noting that the one- and three-month returns aren’t anything special, probably because some type of consolidation would be expected after surges higher, but six months and a year later are quite strong.
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As we’ve been saying this full year, we continue to expect stocks to do well this year and the upward move is firmly in place and studies like this do little to change our opinion.
STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 9th, 2023
([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/11/23
([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)($ADBE $ORCL $KR $ACB $ATEX $ITI $LEN $MPAA $JBL $ECX $POWW $HITI $MMMB $CGNT $WLY $RFIL)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
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Monday 6.12.23 Before Market Open:
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
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Monday 6.12.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Tuesday 6.13.23 Before Market Open:
([CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
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Tuesday 6.13.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 6.14.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 6.14.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 6.15.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 6.15.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Friday 6.16.23 Before Market Open:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!]())
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Friday 6.16.23 After Market Close:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
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(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).
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DISCUSS!
What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!
2023.06.09 23:30 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023
Good Friday evening to all of you here on StockMarketForums! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023.
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead StockMarketForums. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to StockMarketForums [link] [comments]
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023.
S&P 500 notches fourth straight positive week, touches highest level since August: Live updates - (Source)
The S&P 500 rose slightly Friday, touching the 4,300 level for the first time since August 2022 as investors looked ahead to upcoming inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s latest policy announcement.
The broad-market index gained 0.11%, closing at 4,298.86. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.16% to end at 13,259.14. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded up 43.17 points, or 0.13%, closing at 33,876.78. It was the 30-stock Dow’s fourth consecutive positive day.
For the week, the S&P 500 was up 0.39%. This was the broad-market index’s fourth straight winning week — a feat it last accomplished in August. The Nasdaq was up about 0.14%, posting its seventh straight winning week — its first streak of that length since November 2019. The Dow advanced 0.34%.
Investors were encouraged by signs that a broader swath of stocks, including small-cap equities, was participating in the recent rally. The Russell 2000 was down slightly on the day, but notched a weekly gain of 1.9%.
“It’s the first time in a while where investors seem to be feeling a greater sense of certainty. And we think that’s been a turning point from what had been more of a bearish cautious sentiment,” said Greg Bassuk, CEO at AXS Investments.
“We think that as we walk through these next few weeks, that will be increasingly clear that the economy is more resilient than folks have given it credit for the last six months,” said Scott Ladner, chief investment officer at Horizon Investments. “That will sort of dawn on people that small-caps and cyclicals probably have a reasonable shot to play catch up.”
The market is also looking toward next week’s consumer price index numbers and the Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Markets are currently anticipating a more than 71% probability the central bank will pause on rate hikes at the June meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
S&P Sectors for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Indices for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)
Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)
Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
S&P Sectors for the Past Week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)
June’s Quad Witching Options Expiration Riddled With Volatility
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The second Triple Witching Week (Quadruple Witching if you prefer) of the year brings on some volatile trading with losses frequently exceeding gains. NASDAQ has the weakest record on the first trading day of the week. Triple-Witching Friday is usually better, S&P 500 has been up 12 of the last 20 years, but down 6 of the last 8.
Full-week performance is choppy as well, littered with greater than 1% moves in both directions. The week after June’s Triple-Witching Day is horrendous. This week has experienced DJIA losses in 27 of the last 33 years with an average performance of –0.81%. S&P 500 and NASDAQ have fared better during the week after over the same 33-year span. S&P 500’s averaged –0.46%. NASDAQ has averaged +0.03%. 2022’s sizable gains during the week after improve historical average performance notably.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
A New Bull Market: What’s Driving It?
The S&P 500 finally closed 20% above its October 12th (2022) closing low. This puts the index in “official” bull market territory.
Of course, if you had been reading or listening to Ryan on our Facts vs Feelings podcast, you’d have heard him say that October 12th was the low. He actually wrote a piece titled “Why Stocks Likely Just Bottomed” on October 19th!
The S&P 500 Index fell 25% from its peak on January 3rd, 2022 through October 12th. The subsequent 20% gain still puts it 10% below the prior peak. This does get to “math of volatility”. The index would need to gain 33% from its low to regain that level. This is a reason why it’s always better to lose less, is because you need to gain less to get back to even.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
So, what’s next? The good news is that future returns are strong. In his latest piece, Ryan wrote that out of 13 times when stocks rose 20% off a 52-week low, 10 of those times the lows were not violated. The average return 12 months later was close to 18%. The only time we didn’t see a gain was in the 2001-2002 bear market.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
** Digging into the return drivers**
It’s interesting to look at what’s been driving returns over the past year. This can help us think about what may lie ahead. The question was prompted by our friend, Sam Ro’s latest piece on the bull market breakout. He wrote that earnings haven’t been as bad as expected. More importantly, prospects have actually been improving.
The chart below shows earnings expectations for the S&P 500 over the next 12 months. You can see how it rose in the first half of 2022, before collapsing over the second half of the year. The collapse continued into January of this year. But since then, earnings expectations have steadily risen. In fact, they’ve accelerated higher since mid-April, after the last earnings season started. Currently, they’re higher than where we started the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Backing up a bit: we can break apart the price return of a stock (or index) into two components:
I decomposed annual S&P 500 returns from 2020 – 2023 (through June 8th) into these two components. The chart below shows how these added up to the total return for each year. It also includes:
- Earnings growth
- Valuation multiple growth
- The bear market pullback from January 3rd, 2022, through October 12th, 2022
- And the 20% rally from the low through June 8th, 2023
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
You can see how multiple changes have dominated the swing in returns.
The notable exception is 2021, when the S&P 500 return was propelled by earnings growth. In contrast, the 2022 pullback was entirely attributed to multiple contraction. Earnings made a positive contribution in 2022.
Now, multiple contraction is not surprising given the rapid change in rates, as the Federal Reserve (Fed) looked to get on top of inflation. However, they are close to the end of rate hikes, and so that’s no longer a big drag on multiples.
Consequently, multiple growth has pulled the index higher this year. You can see how multiple contraction basically drove the pullback in the Index during the bear market, through the low. But since then, multiples have expanded, pretty much driving the 20% gain.
Here’s a more dynamic picture of the S&P 500’s cumulative price return action from January 3rd, 2022, through June 8th, 2023. The chart also shows the contribution from earnings and multiple growth. As you can see, earnings have been fairly steady, rising 4% over the entire period. However, the swing in multiples is what drove the price return volatility.
Multiples contracted by 14%, and when combined with 4% earnings growth, you experienced the index return of -10%.
What next?
As I pointed out above, the problem for stocks last year was multiple contraction, which was driven by a rapid surge in interest rates.
The good news is that we’re probably close to end of rate hikes. The Fed may go ahead with just one more rate hike (in July), which is not much within the context of the 5%-point increase in rates that they implemented over the past year.
Our view is that rates are likely to remain where they are for a while. But rates are unlikely to rise from 5% to 10%, or even 7%, unless we get another major inflation shock.
This means a major obstacle that hindered stocks last year is dissipating. The removal of this headwind is yet another positive factor for stocks as we look ahead into the second half of the year.
Why Low Volatility Isn’t Bearish
“There is no such thing as average when it comes to the stock market or investing.” -Ryan Detrick
You might have heard by now, but the CBOE Volatility Index (better known as the VIX) made a new 52-week low earlier this week and closed beneath 14 for the first time in more than three years. This has many in the financial media clamoring that ‘the VIX is low and this is bearish’.
They have been telling us (incorrectly) that only five stocks have been going up and this was bearish, that a recession was right around the corner, that the yield curve being inverted was bearish, that M2 money supply YoY tanking was bearish, and now we have the VIX being low is bearish. We’ve disagreed with all of these worries and now we take issue with a low VIX as being bearish.
What exactly is the VIX you ask? I’d suggest reading this summary from Investopedia for a full explanation, but it is simply how much option players are willing to pay up for potential volatility over the coming 30 days. If they sense volatility, they will pay up for insurance. What you might know is that when the VIX is high (say above 30), that means the market tends to be more volatile and likely in a bearish phase. Versus a low VIX (say sub 15) historically has lead to some really nice bull markets and small amounts of volatility.
Back to your regularly scheduled blog now.
The last time the VIX went this long above 14 was for more than five years, ending in August 2012. You know what happened next that time? The S&P 500 added more than 18% the following 12 months. Yes, this is a sample size of one, but I think it shows that a VIX sub 14 by itself isn’t the end of the world.
One of the key concepts around volatility is trends can last for years. What I mean by this is for years the VIX can be high and for years it can be low. Since 1990, the average VIX was 19.7, but it rarely trades around that average. Take another look at the quote I’ve used many times above, as averages aren’t so average. This chart is one I’ve used for years now and I think we could be on the cusp of another low volatility regime. The red areas are times the VIX was consistently above 20, while the yellow were beneath 20. What you also need to know is those red periods usually took place during bear markets and very volatile markets, while the yellow periods were hallmarked by low volatility and higher equity prices. Are we about to enter a new period of lower volatility? No one of course knows, but if this is about to happen (which is my vote), it is another reason to think that higher equity prices (our base case as we remain overweight equities in our Carson House Views) will be coming.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lastly, I’ll leave you on this potentially bullish point. We like to use relative ratios to get a feel for how one asset is going versus to another. We always want to be in assets or sectors that are showing relative strength, while avoiding areas that are weak.
Well, stocks just broke out to new highs relative to bonds once again. After a period of consolidation during the bear market last year, now we have stocks firmly in the driver seat relative to bonds. This is another reason we remain overweight stocks currently and continue to expect stocks to do better than bonds going forward.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Our Leading Economic Index Says the Economy is Not in a Recession
We’ve been writing since the end of last year about how we believe the economy can avoid a recession in 2023, including in our 2023 outlook. This has run contrary to most other economists’ predictions. Interestingly, the tide has been shifting recently, as we’ve gotten a string of relatively stronger economic data. More so after the latest payrolls data, which surprised again.
One challenge with economic data is that we get so many of them, and a lot of times they can send conflicting signals. It can be hard to parse through all of it and come up with an updated view of the economy after every data release.
One approach is to combine these into a single indicator, i.e. a “leading economic index” (LEI). It’s “leading” because the idea is to give you an early warning signal about economic turning points.
Simply put, it tells you what the economy is doing today and what it is likely to do in the near future.
The most popular LEI points to recession
One of the most widely used LEI’s is released by the Conference Board, and it currently points to recession. As you can see in the chart below, the Conference Board’s LEI is highly correlated with GDP growth – the chart shows year-over-year change in both.
You can see how the index started to fall ahead of the 2001 and 2008 recession (shaded areas). The 2020 pandemic recession was an anomaly since it hit so suddenly. In any case, using an LEI means we didn’t have to wait for GDP data (which are released well after a quarter ends) to tell us whether the economy was close to, or in a recession.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As you probably noticed above, the LEI is down 8% year-over-year, signaling a recession over the next 12 months. It’s been pointing to a recession since last fall, with the index declining for 13 straight months through April.
Quoting the Conference Board:
“The Conference Board forecasts a contraction of economic activity starting in Q2 leading to a mild recession by mid-2023.”
Safe to say, we’re close to mid-2023 and there’s no sign of a recession yet.
What’s inside the LEI
The Conference Board’s LEI has 10 components of which,
You can see how these indicators have pulled the index down by 4.4% over the past 6 months, and by -0.6% in April alone.
- 3 are financial market indicators, including the S&P 500, and make up 22% of the index
- 4 measure business and manufacturing activity (44%)
- 1 measures housing activity (3%)
- 2 are related to the consumer, including the labor market (31%)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s the thing. This popular LEI is premised on the fact that the manufacturing sector, and business activity/sentiment, is a leading indicator of the economy. This worked well in the past but is probably not indicative of what’s happening in the economy right now. For one thing, the manufacturing sector makes up just about 11% of GDP.
Consumption makes up 68% of the economy, and we believe it’s important to capture that.
In fact, consumption was strong in Q1 and even at the start of Q2, thanks to rising real incomes. Housing is also making a turnaround and should no longer be a drag on the economy going forward (as it has been over the past 8 quarters). The Federal Reserve (Fed) is also close to being done with rate hikes. Plus, as my colleague, Ryan Detrick pointed out, the stock market’s turned around and is close to entering a new bull market.
Obviously, there are a lot of data points that we look at and one way we parse through all of it is by constructing our own leading economic index.
An LEI that better reflects the US economy
We believe our proprietary LEI better captures the dynamics of the US economy. It was developed a decade ago and is a key input into our asset allocation decisions.
In contrast to the Conference Board’s measure, it includes 20+ components, including,
Just as an example, the consumer-related data includes unemployment benefit claims, weekly hours worked, and vehicle sales. Housing includes indicators like building permits and new home sales.
- Consumer-related indicators (make up 50% of the index)
- Housing activity (18%)
- Business and manufacturing activity (23%)
- Financial markets (9%)
The chart below shows how our LEI has moved through time – capturing whether the economy is growing below trend, on-trend (a value close to zero), or above trend. Like the Conference Board’s measure, it is able to capture major turning points in the business cycle. It declined ahead of the actual start of the 2011 and 2008 recessions.
As of April, our index is indicating that the economy is growing right along trend.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Last year, the index signaled that the economy was growing below trend, and that the risk of a recession was high.
Note that it didn’t point to an actual recession. Just that “risk” of one was higher than normal. In fact, our LEI held close to the lows we saw over the last decade, especially in 2011 and 2016 (after which the economy, and even the stock market, recovered).
The following chart captures a close-up view of the last 3 and half years, which includes the Covid pullback and subsequent recovery. The contribution from the 4 major categories is also shown. You can see how the consumer has remained strong over the past year – in fact, consumer indicators have been stronger this year than in late 2022.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The main risk of a recession last year was due to the Fed raising rates as fast as they did, which adversely impacted housing, financial markets, and business activity.
The good news is that these sectors are improving even as consumer strength continues. The improvement in housing is notable. Additionally, the drag from financial conditions is beginning to ease as we think that the Federal Reserve gets closer to the end of rate hikes, and markets rally.
Putting the Puzzle Together
Another novel part of our approach is that we have an LEI like the one for the US for more than 25 other countries. Each one is custom built to capture the dynamics of those economies. The individual country LEIs are also subsequently rolled up to a global index to give us a picture of the global economy, as shown below.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
I want to emphasize that we do not rely solely on this as the one and only input into our asset allocation, portfolio and risk management decisions. While it is an important component that encapsulates a lot of significant information, it is just one piece of the puzzle. Our process also has other pillars such as policy (both monetary and fiscal), technical factors, and valuations.
We believe it’s important to put all these pieces together, kind of like putting together a puzzle, to understand what’s happening in the economy and markets, and position portfolios accordingly.
Putting together a puzzle is both a mechanistic and artistic process. The mechanistic aspect involves sorting the pieces, finding edges, and matching colors, etc. It requires a logical and methodical approach, and in our process the LEI is key to that.
However, there is an artistic element as well. As we assemble the pieces together, a larger picture gradually emerges. You can make creative decisions about how each piece fits within the overall picture. Within the context of portfolio management, that takes a diverse range of experience. Which is the core strength of our Investment Research Team.
Welcome to the New Bull Market
“If you torture numbers enough, they will tell you anything.” -Yogi Berra, Yankee great and Hall of Fame catcher
Don’t shoot the messenger, but historically, it is widely considered a new bull market once stocks are more than 20% off their bear market lows. This is similar to when stocks are down 20% they are in a bear market. Well, the S&P 500 is less than one percent away from this 20% threshold, so get ready to hear a lot about it when it eventually happens.
I’m not crazy about this concept, as we’ve been in the camp that the bear market ended in October for months now (we started to say it in late October, getting some really odd looks I might add), meaning a new bull market has been here for a while. Take another look at the great Yogi quote above, as someone can get whatever they want probably when talking about bear and bull markets.
None the less, what exactly does a 20% move higher off a bear market low really mean? The good news is future returns are quite strong.
We found 13 times that stocks soared at least 20% off a 52-week low and 10 times the lows were indeed in and not violated. The only times it didn’t work? Twice during the tech bubble implosion and once during the Financial Crisis. In other words, some of the truly worst times to be invested in stocks. But the other 10 times, once there was a 20% gain, the lows were in and in most cases, higher prices were soon coming. This chart does a nice job of showing this concept, with the red dots the times new lows were still yet to come after a 20% bounce.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s a table with all the breakdowns. A year later stocks were down only once and that was during the 2001/2002 bear market, with the average gain a year after a 20% bounce at a very impressive 17.7%. It is worth noting that the one- and three-month returns aren’t anything special, probably because some type of consolidation would be expected after surges higher, but six months and a year later are quite strong.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As we’ve been saying this full year, we continue to expect stocks to do well this year and the upward move is firmly in place and studies like this do little to change our opinion.
STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 9th, 2023
([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/11/23
([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)($ADBE $ORCL $KR $ACB $ATEX $ITI $LEN $MPAA $JBL $ECX $POWW $HITI $MMMB $CGNT $WLY $RFIL)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
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Monday 6.12.23 Before Market Open:
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
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Monday 6.12.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Tuesday 6.13.23 Before Market Open:
([CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)
Tuesday 6.13.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 6.14.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 6.14.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 6.15.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 6.15.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Friday 6.16.23 Before Market Open:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!]())
(NONE.)
Friday 6.16.23 After Market Close:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
DISCUSS!
What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!
2023.06.09 23:29 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023
Good Friday evening to all of you here on StocksMarket! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023.
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead StocksMarket. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to StocksMarket [link] [comments]
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023.
S&P 500 notches fourth straight positive week, touches highest level since August: Live updates - (Source)
The S&P 500 rose slightly Friday, touching the 4,300 level for the first time since August 2022 as investors looked ahead to upcoming inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s latest policy announcement.
The broad-market index gained 0.11%, closing at 4,298.86. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.16% to end at 13,259.14. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded up 43.17 points, or 0.13%, closing at 33,876.78. It was the 30-stock Dow’s fourth consecutive positive day.
For the week, the S&P 500 was up 0.39%. This was the broad-market index’s fourth straight winning week — a feat it last accomplished in August. The Nasdaq was up about 0.14%, posting its seventh straight winning week — its first streak of that length since November 2019. The Dow advanced 0.34%.
Investors were encouraged by signs that a broader swath of stocks, including small-cap equities, was participating in the recent rally. The Russell 2000 was down slightly on the day, but notched a weekly gain of 1.9%.
“It’s the first time in a while where investors seem to be feeling a greater sense of certainty. And we think that’s been a turning point from what had been more of a bearish cautious sentiment,” said Greg Bassuk, CEO at AXS Investments.
“We think that as we walk through these next few weeks, that will be increasingly clear that the economy is more resilient than folks have given it credit for the last six months,” said Scott Ladner, chief investment officer at Horizon Investments. “That will sort of dawn on people that small-caps and cyclicals probably have a reasonable shot to play catch up.”
The market is also looking toward next week’s consumer price index numbers and the Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Markets are currently anticipating a more than 71% probability the central bank will pause on rate hikes at the June meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
S&P Sectors for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Indices for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)
Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)
Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
S&P Sectors for the Past Week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)
June’s Quad Witching Options Expiration Riddled With Volatility
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The second Triple Witching Week (Quadruple Witching if you prefer) of the year brings on some volatile trading with losses frequently exceeding gains. NASDAQ has the weakest record on the first trading day of the week. Triple-Witching Friday is usually better, S&P 500 has been up 12 of the last 20 years, but down 6 of the last 8.
Full-week performance is choppy as well, littered with greater than 1% moves in both directions. The week after June’s Triple-Witching Day is horrendous. This week has experienced DJIA losses in 27 of the last 33 years with an average performance of –0.81%. S&P 500 and NASDAQ have fared better during the week after over the same 33-year span. S&P 500’s averaged –0.46%. NASDAQ has averaged +0.03%. 2022’s sizable gains during the week after improve historical average performance notably.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
A New Bull Market: What’s Driving It?
The S&P 500 finally closed 20% above its October 12th (2022) closing low. This puts the index in “official” bull market territory.
Of course, if you had been reading or listening to Ryan on our Facts vs Feelings podcast, you’d have heard him say that October 12th was the low. He actually wrote a piece titled “Why Stocks Likely Just Bottomed” on October 19th!
The S&P 500 Index fell 25% from its peak on January 3rd, 2022 through October 12th. The subsequent 20% gain still puts it 10% below the prior peak. This does get to “math of volatility”. The index would need to gain 33% from its low to regain that level. This is a reason why it’s always better to lose less, is because you need to gain less to get back to even.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
So, what’s next? The good news is that future returns are strong. In his latest piece, Ryan wrote that out of 13 times when stocks rose 20% off a 52-week low, 10 of those times the lows were not violated. The average return 12 months later was close to 18%. The only time we didn’t see a gain was in the 2001-2002 bear market.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
** Digging into the return drivers**
It’s interesting to look at what’s been driving returns over the past year. This can help us think about what may lie ahead. The question was prompted by our friend, Sam Ro’s latest piece on the bull market breakout. He wrote that earnings haven’t been as bad as expected. More importantly, prospects have actually been improving.
The chart below shows earnings expectations for the S&P 500 over the next 12 months. You can see how it rose in the first half of 2022, before collapsing over the second half of the year. The collapse continued into January of this year. But since then, earnings expectations have steadily risen. In fact, they’ve accelerated higher since mid-April, after the last earnings season started. Currently, they’re higher than where we started the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Backing up a bit: we can break apart the price return of a stock (or index) into two components:
I decomposed annual S&P 500 returns from 2020 – 2023 (through June 8th) into these two components. The chart below shows how these added up to the total return for each year. It also includes:
- Earnings growth
- Valuation multiple growth
- The bear market pullback from January 3rd, 2022, through October 12th, 2022
- And the 20% rally from the low through June 8th, 2023
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
You can see how multiple changes have dominated the swing in returns.
The notable exception is 2021, when the S&P 500 return was propelled by earnings growth. In contrast, the 2022 pullback was entirely attributed to multiple contraction. Earnings made a positive contribution in 2022.
Now, multiple contraction is not surprising given the rapid change in rates, as the Federal Reserve (Fed) looked to get on top of inflation. However, they are close to the end of rate hikes, and so that’s no longer a big drag on multiples.
Consequently, multiple growth has pulled the index higher this year. You can see how multiple contraction basically drove the pullback in the Index during the bear market, through the low. But since then, multiples have expanded, pretty much driving the 20% gain.
Here’s a more dynamic picture of the S&P 500’s cumulative price return action from January 3rd, 2022, through June 8th, 2023. The chart also shows the contribution from earnings and multiple growth. As you can see, earnings have been fairly steady, rising 4% over the entire period. However, the swing in multiples is what drove the price return volatility.
Multiples contracted by 14%, and when combined with 4% earnings growth, you experienced the index return of -10%.
What next?
As I pointed out above, the problem for stocks last year was multiple contraction, which was driven by a rapid surge in interest rates.
The good news is that we’re probably close to end of rate hikes. The Fed may go ahead with just one more rate hike (in July), which is not much within the context of the 5%-point increase in rates that they implemented over the past year.
Our view is that rates are likely to remain where they are for a while. But rates are unlikely to rise from 5% to 10%, or even 7%, unless we get another major inflation shock.
This means a major obstacle that hindered stocks last year is dissipating. The removal of this headwind is yet another positive factor for stocks as we look ahead into the second half of the year.
Why Low Volatility Isn’t Bearish
“There is no such thing as average when it comes to the stock market or investing.” -Ryan Detrick
You might have heard by now, but the CBOE Volatility Index (better known as the VIX) made a new 52-week low earlier this week and closed beneath 14 for the first time in more than three years. This has many in the financial media clamoring that ‘the VIX is low and this is bearish’.
They have been telling us (incorrectly) that only five stocks have been going up and this was bearish, that a recession was right around the corner, that the yield curve being inverted was bearish, that M2 money supply YoY tanking was bearish, and now we have the VIX being low is bearish. We’ve disagreed with all of these worries and now we take issue with a low VIX as being bearish.
What exactly is the VIX you ask? I’d suggest reading this summary from Investopedia for a full explanation, but it is simply how much option players are willing to pay up for potential volatility over the coming 30 days. If they sense volatility, they will pay up for insurance. What you might know is that when the VIX is high (say above 30), that means the market tends to be more volatile and likely in a bearish phase. Versus a low VIX (say sub 15) historically has lead to some really nice bull markets and small amounts of volatility.
Back to your regularly scheduled blog now.
The last time the VIX went this long above 14 was for more than five years, ending in August 2012. You know what happened next that time? The S&P 500 added more than 18% the following 12 months. Yes, this is a sample size of one, but I think it shows that a VIX sub 14 by itself isn’t the end of the world.
One of the key concepts around volatility is trends can last for years. What I mean by this is for years the VIX can be high and for years it can be low. Since 1990, the average VIX was 19.7, but it rarely trades around that average. Take another look at the quote I’ve used many times above, as averages aren’t so average. This chart is one I’ve used for years now and I think we could be on the cusp of another low volatility regime. The red areas are times the VIX was consistently above 20, while the yellow were beneath 20. What you also need to know is those red periods usually took place during bear markets and very volatile markets, while the yellow periods were hallmarked by low volatility and higher equity prices. Are we about to enter a new period of lower volatility? No one of course knows, but if this is about to happen (which is my vote), it is another reason to think that higher equity prices (our base case as we remain overweight equities in our Carson House Views) will be coming.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lastly, I’ll leave you on this potentially bullish point. We like to use relative ratios to get a feel for how one asset is going versus to another. We always want to be in assets or sectors that are showing relative strength, while avoiding areas that are weak.
Well, stocks just broke out to new highs relative to bonds once again. After a period of consolidation during the bear market last year, now we have stocks firmly in the driver seat relative to bonds. This is another reason we remain overweight stocks currently and continue to expect stocks to do better than bonds going forward.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Our Leading Economic Index Says the Economy is Not in a Recession
We’ve been writing since the end of last year about how we believe the economy can avoid a recession in 2023, including in our 2023 outlook. This has run contrary to most other economists’ predictions. Interestingly, the tide has been shifting recently, as we’ve gotten a string of relatively stronger economic data. More so after the latest payrolls data, which surprised again.
One challenge with economic data is that we get so many of them, and a lot of times they can send conflicting signals. It can be hard to parse through all of it and come up with an updated view of the economy after every data release.
One approach is to combine these into a single indicator, i.e. a “leading economic index” (LEI). It’s “leading” because the idea is to give you an early warning signal about economic turning points.
Simply put, it tells you what the economy is doing today and what it is likely to do in the near future.
The most popular LEI points to recession
One of the most widely used LEI’s is released by the Conference Board, and it currently points to recession. As you can see in the chart below, the Conference Board’s LEI is highly correlated with GDP growth – the chart shows year-over-year change in both.
You can see how the index started to fall ahead of the 2001 and 2008 recession (shaded areas). The 2020 pandemic recession was an anomaly since it hit so suddenly. In any case, using an LEI means we didn’t have to wait for GDP data (which are released well after a quarter ends) to tell us whether the economy was close to, or in a recession.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As you probably noticed above, the LEI is down 8% year-over-year, signaling a recession over the next 12 months. It’s been pointing to a recession since last fall, with the index declining for 13 straight months through April.
Quoting the Conference Board:
“The Conference Board forecasts a contraction of economic activity starting in Q2 leading to a mild recession by mid-2023.”
Safe to say, we’re close to mid-2023 and there’s no sign of a recession yet.
What’s inside the LEI
The Conference Board’s LEI has 10 components of which,
You can see how these indicators have pulled the index down by 4.4% over the past 6 months, and by -0.6% in April alone.
- 3 are financial market indicators, including the S&P 500, and make up 22% of the index
- 4 measure business and manufacturing activity (44%)
- 1 measures housing activity (3%)
- 2 are related to the consumer, including the labor market (31%)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s the thing. This popular LEI is premised on the fact that the manufacturing sector, and business activity/sentiment, is a leading indicator of the economy. This worked well in the past but is probably not indicative of what’s happening in the economy right now. For one thing, the manufacturing sector makes up just about 11% of GDP.
Consumption makes up 68% of the economy, and we believe it’s important to capture that.
In fact, consumption was strong in Q1 and even at the start of Q2, thanks to rising real incomes. Housing is also making a turnaround and should no longer be a drag on the economy going forward (as it has been over the past 8 quarters). The Federal Reserve (Fed) is also close to being done with rate hikes. Plus, as my colleague, Ryan Detrick pointed out, the stock market’s turned around and is close to entering a new bull market.
Obviously, there are a lot of data points that we look at and one way we parse through all of it is by constructing our own leading economic index.
An LEI that better reflects the US economy
We believe our proprietary LEI better captures the dynamics of the US economy. It was developed a decade ago and is a key input into our asset allocation decisions.
In contrast to the Conference Board’s measure, it includes 20+ components, including,
Just as an example, the consumer-related data includes unemployment benefit claims, weekly hours worked, and vehicle sales. Housing includes indicators like building permits and new home sales.
- Consumer-related indicators (make up 50% of the index)
- Housing activity (18%)
- Business and manufacturing activity (23%)
- Financial markets (9%)
The chart below shows how our LEI has moved through time – capturing whether the economy is growing below trend, on-trend (a value close to zero), or above trend. Like the Conference Board’s measure, it is able to capture major turning points in the business cycle. It declined ahead of the actual start of the 2011 and 2008 recessions.
As of April, our index is indicating that the economy is growing right along trend.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Last year, the index signaled that the economy was growing below trend, and that the risk of a recession was high.
Note that it didn’t point to an actual recession. Just that “risk” of one was higher than normal. In fact, our LEI held close to the lows we saw over the last decade, especially in 2011 and 2016 (after which the economy, and even the stock market, recovered).
The following chart captures a close-up view of the last 3 and half years, which includes the Covid pullback and subsequent recovery. The contribution from the 4 major categories is also shown. You can see how the consumer has remained strong over the past year – in fact, consumer indicators have been stronger this year than in late 2022.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The main risk of a recession last year was due to the Fed raising rates as fast as they did, which adversely impacted housing, financial markets, and business activity.
The good news is that these sectors are improving even as consumer strength continues. The improvement in housing is notable. Additionally, the drag from financial conditions is beginning to ease as we think that the Federal Reserve gets closer to the end of rate hikes, and markets rally.
Putting the Puzzle Together
Another novel part of our approach is that we have an LEI like the one for the US for more than 25 other countries. Each one is custom built to capture the dynamics of those economies. The individual country LEIs are also subsequently rolled up to a global index to give us a picture of the global economy, as shown below.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
I want to emphasize that we do not rely solely on this as the one and only input into our asset allocation, portfolio and risk management decisions. While it is an important component that encapsulates a lot of significant information, it is just one piece of the puzzle. Our process also has other pillars such as policy (both monetary and fiscal), technical factors, and valuations.
We believe it’s important to put all these pieces together, kind of like putting together a puzzle, to understand what’s happening in the economy and markets, and position portfolios accordingly.
Putting together a puzzle is both a mechanistic and artistic process. The mechanistic aspect involves sorting the pieces, finding edges, and matching colors, etc. It requires a logical and methodical approach, and in our process the LEI is key to that.
However, there is an artistic element as well. As we assemble the pieces together, a larger picture gradually emerges. You can make creative decisions about how each piece fits within the overall picture. Within the context of portfolio management, that takes a diverse range of experience. Which is the core strength of our Investment Research Team.
Welcome to the New Bull Market
“If you torture numbers enough, they will tell you anything.” -Yogi Berra, Yankee great and Hall of Fame catcher
Don’t shoot the messenger, but historically, it is widely considered a new bull market once stocks are more than 20% off their bear market lows. This is similar to when stocks are down 20% they are in a bear market. Well, the S&P 500 is less than one percent away from this 20% threshold, so get ready to hear a lot about it when it eventually happens.
I’m not crazy about this concept, as we’ve been in the camp that the bear market ended in October for months now (we started to say it in late October, getting some really odd looks I might add), meaning a new bull market has been here for a while. Take another look at the great Yogi quote above, as someone can get whatever they want probably when talking about bear and bull markets.
None the less, what exactly does a 20% move higher off a bear market low really mean? The good news is future returns are quite strong.
We found 13 times that stocks soared at least 20% off a 52-week low and 10 times the lows were indeed in and not violated. The only times it didn’t work? Twice during the tech bubble implosion and once during the Financial Crisis. In other words, some of the truly worst times to be invested in stocks. But the other 10 times, once there was a 20% gain, the lows were in and in most cases, higher prices were soon coming. This chart does a nice job of showing this concept, with the red dots the times new lows were still yet to come after a 20% bounce.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s a table with all the breakdowns. A year later stocks were down only once and that was during the 2001/2002 bear market, with the average gain a year after a 20% bounce at a very impressive 17.7%. It is worth noting that the one- and three-month returns aren’t anything special, probably because some type of consolidation would be expected after surges higher, but six months and a year later are quite strong.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As we’ve been saying this full year, we continue to expect stocks to do well this year and the upward move is firmly in place and studies like this do little to change our opinion.
STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 9th, 2023
([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/11/23
([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)($ADBE $ORCL $KR $ACB $ATEX $ITI $LEN $MPAA $JBL $ECX $POWW $HITI $MMMB $CGNT $WLY $RFIL)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
(NONE.)
Monday 6.12.23 Before Market Open:
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)
Monday 6.12.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Tuesday 6.13.23 Before Market Open:
([CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)
Tuesday 6.13.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 6.14.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 6.14.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 6.15.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 6.15.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Friday 6.16.23 Before Market Open:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!]())
(NONE.)
Friday 6.16.23 After Market Close:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
DISCUSS!
What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!
2023.06.09 23:29 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023
Good Friday evening to all of you here on EarningsWhispers! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023.
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead EarningsWhispers. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to EarningsWhispers [link] [comments]
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023.
S&P 500 notches fourth straight positive week, touches highest level since August: Live updates - (Source)
The S&P 500 rose slightly Friday, touching the 4,300 level for the first time since August 2022 as investors looked ahead to upcoming inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s latest policy announcement.
The broad-market index gained 0.11%, closing at 4,298.86. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.16% to end at 13,259.14. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded up 43.17 points, or 0.13%, closing at 33,876.78. It was the 30-stock Dow’s fourth consecutive positive day.
For the week, the S&P 500 was up 0.39%. This was the broad-market index’s fourth straight winning week — a feat it last accomplished in August. The Nasdaq was up about 0.14%, posting its seventh straight winning week — its first streak of that length since November 2019. The Dow advanced 0.34%.
Investors were encouraged by signs that a broader swath of stocks, including small-cap equities, was participating in the recent rally. The Russell 2000 was down slightly on the day, but notched a weekly gain of 1.9%.
“It’s the first time in a while where investors seem to be feeling a greater sense of certainty. And we think that’s been a turning point from what had been more of a bearish cautious sentiment,” said Greg Bassuk, CEO at AXS Investments.
“We think that as we walk through these next few weeks, that will be increasingly clear that the economy is more resilient than folks have given it credit for the last six months,” said Scott Ladner, chief investment officer at Horizon Investments. “That will sort of dawn on people that small-caps and cyclicals probably have a reasonable shot to play catch up.”
The market is also looking toward next week’s consumer price index numbers and the Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Markets are currently anticipating a more than 71% probability the central bank will pause on rate hikes at the June meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
S&P Sectors for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Indices for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)
Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)
Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
S&P Sectors for the Past Week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)
June’s Quad Witching Options Expiration Riddled With Volatility
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The second Triple Witching Week (Quadruple Witching if you prefer) of the year brings on some volatile trading with losses frequently exceeding gains. NASDAQ has the weakest record on the first trading day of the week. Triple-Witching Friday is usually better, S&P 500 has been up 12 of the last 20 years, but down 6 of the last 8.
Full-week performance is choppy as well, littered with greater than 1% moves in both directions. The week after June’s Triple-Witching Day is horrendous. This week has experienced DJIA losses in 27 of the last 33 years with an average performance of –0.81%. S&P 500 and NASDAQ have fared better during the week after over the same 33-year span. S&P 500’s averaged –0.46%. NASDAQ has averaged +0.03%. 2022’s sizable gains during the week after improve historical average performance notably.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
A New Bull Market: What’s Driving It?
The S&P 500 finally closed 20% above its October 12th (2022) closing low. This puts the index in “official” bull market territory.
Of course, if you had been reading or listening to Ryan on our Facts vs Feelings podcast, you’d have heard him say that October 12th was the low. He actually wrote a piece titled “Why Stocks Likely Just Bottomed” on October 19th!
The S&P 500 Index fell 25% from its peak on January 3rd, 2022 through October 12th. The subsequent 20% gain still puts it 10% below the prior peak. This does get to “math of volatility”. The index would need to gain 33% from its low to regain that level. This is a reason why it’s always better to lose less, is because you need to gain less to get back to even.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
So, what’s next? The good news is that future returns are strong. In his latest piece, Ryan wrote that out of 13 times when stocks rose 20% off a 52-week low, 10 of those times the lows were not violated. The average return 12 months later was close to 18%. The only time we didn’t see a gain was in the 2001-2002 bear market.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
** Digging into the return drivers**
It’s interesting to look at what’s been driving returns over the past year. This can help us think about what may lie ahead. The question was prompted by our friend, Sam Ro’s latest piece on the bull market breakout. He wrote that earnings haven’t been as bad as expected. More importantly, prospects have actually been improving.
The chart below shows earnings expectations for the S&P 500 over the next 12 months. You can see how it rose in the first half of 2022, before collapsing over the second half of the year. The collapse continued into January of this year. But since then, earnings expectations have steadily risen. In fact, they’ve accelerated higher since mid-April, after the last earnings season started. Currently, they’re higher than where we started the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Backing up a bit: we can break apart the price return of a stock (or index) into two components:
I decomposed annual S&P 500 returns from 2020 – 2023 (through June 8th) into these two components. The chart below shows how these added up to the total return for each year. It also includes:
- Earnings growth
- Valuation multiple growth
- The bear market pullback from January 3rd, 2022, through October 12th, 2022
- And the 20% rally from the low through June 8th, 2023
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
You can see how multiple changes have dominated the swing in returns.
The notable exception is 2021, when the S&P 500 return was propelled by earnings growth. In contrast, the 2022 pullback was entirely attributed to multiple contraction. Earnings made a positive contribution in 2022.
Now, multiple contraction is not surprising given the rapid change in rates, as the Federal Reserve (Fed) looked to get on top of inflation. However, they are close to the end of rate hikes, and so that’s no longer a big drag on multiples.
Consequently, multiple growth has pulled the index higher this year. You can see how multiple contraction basically drove the pullback in the Index during the bear market, through the low. But since then, multiples have expanded, pretty much driving the 20% gain.
Here’s a more dynamic picture of the S&P 500’s cumulative price return action from January 3rd, 2022, through June 8th, 2023. The chart also shows the contribution from earnings and multiple growth. As you can see, earnings have been fairly steady, rising 4% over the entire period. However, the swing in multiples is what drove the price return volatility.
Multiples contracted by 14%, and when combined with 4% earnings growth, you experienced the index return of -10%.
What next?
As I pointed out above, the problem for stocks last year was multiple contraction, which was driven by a rapid surge in interest rates.
The good news is that we’re probably close to end of rate hikes. The Fed may go ahead with just one more rate hike (in July), which is not much within the context of the 5%-point increase in rates that they implemented over the past year.
Our view is that rates are likely to remain where they are for a while. But rates are unlikely to rise from 5% to 10%, or even 7%, unless we get another major inflation shock.
This means a major obstacle that hindered stocks last year is dissipating. The removal of this headwind is yet another positive factor for stocks as we look ahead into the second half of the year.
Why Low Volatility Isn’t Bearish
“There is no such thing as average when it comes to the stock market or investing.” -Ryan Detrick
You might have heard by now, but the CBOE Volatility Index (better known as the VIX) made a new 52-week low earlier this week and closed beneath 14 for the first time in more than three years. This has many in the financial media clamoring that ‘the VIX is low and this is bearish’.
They have been telling us (incorrectly) that only five stocks have been going up and this was bearish, that a recession was right around the corner, that the yield curve being inverted was bearish, that M2 money supply YoY tanking was bearish, and now we have the VIX being low is bearish. We’ve disagreed with all of these worries and now we take issue with a low VIX as being bearish.
What exactly is the VIX you ask? I’d suggest reading this summary from Investopedia for a full explanation, but it is simply how much option players are willing to pay up for potential volatility over the coming 30 days. If they sense volatility, they will pay up for insurance. What you might know is that when the VIX is high (say above 30), that means the market tends to be more volatile and likely in a bearish phase. Versus a low VIX (say sub 15) historically has lead to some really nice bull markets and small amounts of volatility.
Back to your regularly scheduled blog now.
The last time the VIX went this long above 14 was for more than five years, ending in August 2012. You know what happened next that time? The S&P 500 added more than 18% the following 12 months. Yes, this is a sample size of one, but I think it shows that a VIX sub 14 by itself isn’t the end of the world.
One of the key concepts around volatility is trends can last for years. What I mean by this is for years the VIX can be high and for years it can be low. Since 1990, the average VIX was 19.7, but it rarely trades around that average. Take another look at the quote I’ve used many times above, as averages aren’t so average. This chart is one I’ve used for years now and I think we could be on the cusp of another low volatility regime. The red areas are times the VIX was consistently above 20, while the yellow were beneath 20. What you also need to know is those red periods usually took place during bear markets and very volatile markets, while the yellow periods were hallmarked by low volatility and higher equity prices. Are we about to enter a new period of lower volatility? No one of course knows, but if this is about to happen (which is my vote), it is another reason to think that higher equity prices (our base case as we remain overweight equities in our Carson House Views) will be coming.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lastly, I’ll leave you on this potentially bullish point. We like to use relative ratios to get a feel for how one asset is going versus to another. We always want to be in assets or sectors that are showing relative strength, while avoiding areas that are weak.
Well, stocks just broke out to new highs relative to bonds once again. After a period of consolidation during the bear market last year, now we have stocks firmly in the driver seat relative to bonds. This is another reason we remain overweight stocks currently and continue to expect stocks to do better than bonds going forward.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Our Leading Economic Index Says the Economy is Not in a Recession
We’ve been writing since the end of last year about how we believe the economy can avoid a recession in 2023, including in our 2023 outlook. This has run contrary to most other economists’ predictions. Interestingly, the tide has been shifting recently, as we’ve gotten a string of relatively stronger economic data. More so after the latest payrolls data, which surprised again.
One challenge with economic data is that we get so many of them, and a lot of times they can send conflicting signals. It can be hard to parse through all of it and come up with an updated view of the economy after every data release.
One approach is to combine these into a single indicator, i.e. a “leading economic index” (LEI). It’s “leading” because the idea is to give you an early warning signal about economic turning points.
Simply put, it tells you what the economy is doing today and what it is likely to do in the near future.
The most popular LEI points to recession
One of the most widely used LEI’s is released by the Conference Board, and it currently points to recession. As you can see in the chart below, the Conference Board’s LEI is highly correlated with GDP growth – the chart shows year-over-year change in both.
You can see how the index started to fall ahead of the 2001 and 2008 recession (shaded areas). The 2020 pandemic recession was an anomaly since it hit so suddenly. In any case, using an LEI means we didn’t have to wait for GDP data (which are released well after a quarter ends) to tell us whether the economy was close to, or in a recession.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As you probably noticed above, the LEI is down 8% year-over-year, signaling a recession over the next 12 months. It’s been pointing to a recession since last fall, with the index declining for 13 straight months through April.
Quoting the Conference Board:
“The Conference Board forecasts a contraction of economic activity starting in Q2 leading to a mild recession by mid-2023.”
Safe to say, we’re close to mid-2023 and there’s no sign of a recession yet.
What’s inside the LEI
The Conference Board’s LEI has 10 components of which,
You can see how these indicators have pulled the index down by 4.4% over the past 6 months, and by -0.6% in April alone.
- 3 are financial market indicators, including the S&P 500, and make up 22% of the index
- 4 measure business and manufacturing activity (44%)
- 1 measures housing activity (3%)
- 2 are related to the consumer, including the labor market (31%)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s the thing. This popular LEI is premised on the fact that the manufacturing sector, and business activity/sentiment, is a leading indicator of the economy. This worked well in the past but is probably not indicative of what’s happening in the economy right now. For one thing, the manufacturing sector makes up just about 11% of GDP.
Consumption makes up 68% of the economy, and we believe it’s important to capture that.
In fact, consumption was strong in Q1 and even at the start of Q2, thanks to rising real incomes. Housing is also making a turnaround and should no longer be a drag on the economy going forward (as it has been over the past 8 quarters). The Federal Reserve (Fed) is also close to being done with rate hikes. Plus, as my colleague, Ryan Detrick pointed out, the stock market’s turned around and is close to entering a new bull market.
Obviously, there are a lot of data points that we look at and one way we parse through all of it is by constructing our own leading economic index.
An LEI that better reflects the US economy
We believe our proprietary LEI better captures the dynamics of the US economy. It was developed a decade ago and is a key input into our asset allocation decisions.
In contrast to the Conference Board’s measure, it includes 20+ components, including,
Just as an example, the consumer-related data includes unemployment benefit claims, weekly hours worked, and vehicle sales. Housing includes indicators like building permits and new home sales.
- Consumer-related indicators (make up 50% of the index)
- Housing activity (18%)
- Business and manufacturing activity (23%)
- Financial markets (9%)
The chart below shows how our LEI has moved through time – capturing whether the economy is growing below trend, on-trend (a value close to zero), or above trend. Like the Conference Board’s measure, it is able to capture major turning points in the business cycle. It declined ahead of the actual start of the 2011 and 2008 recessions.
As of April, our index is indicating that the economy is growing right along trend.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Last year, the index signaled that the economy was growing below trend, and that the risk of a recession was high.
Note that it didn’t point to an actual recession. Just that “risk” of one was higher than normal. In fact, our LEI held close to the lows we saw over the last decade, especially in 2011 and 2016 (after which the economy, and even the stock market, recovered).
The following chart captures a close-up view of the last 3 and half years, which includes the Covid pullback and subsequent recovery. The contribution from the 4 major categories is also shown. You can see how the consumer has remained strong over the past year – in fact, consumer indicators have been stronger this year than in late 2022.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The main risk of a recession last year was due to the Fed raising rates as fast as they did, which adversely impacted housing, financial markets, and business activity.
The good news is that these sectors are improving even as consumer strength continues. The improvement in housing is notable. Additionally, the drag from financial conditions is beginning to ease as we think that the Federal Reserve gets closer to the end of rate hikes, and markets rally.
Putting the Puzzle Together
Another novel part of our approach is that we have an LEI like the one for the US for more than 25 other countries. Each one is custom built to capture the dynamics of those economies. The individual country LEIs are also subsequently rolled up to a global index to give us a picture of the global economy, as shown below.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
I want to emphasize that we do not rely solely on this as the one and only input into our asset allocation, portfolio and risk management decisions. While it is an important component that encapsulates a lot of significant information, it is just one piece of the puzzle. Our process also has other pillars such as policy (both monetary and fiscal), technical factors, and valuations.
We believe it’s important to put all these pieces together, kind of like putting together a puzzle, to understand what’s happening in the economy and markets, and position portfolios accordingly.
Putting together a puzzle is both a mechanistic and artistic process. The mechanistic aspect involves sorting the pieces, finding edges, and matching colors, etc. It requires a logical and methodical approach, and in our process the LEI is key to that.
However, there is an artistic element as well. As we assemble the pieces together, a larger picture gradually emerges. You can make creative decisions about how each piece fits within the overall picture. Within the context of portfolio management, that takes a diverse range of experience. Which is the core strength of our Investment Research Team.
Welcome to the New Bull Market
“If you torture numbers enough, they will tell you anything.” -Yogi Berra, Yankee great and Hall of Fame catcher
Don’t shoot the messenger, but historically, it is widely considered a new bull market once stocks are more than 20% off their bear market lows. This is similar to when stocks are down 20% they are in a bear market. Well, the S&P 500 is less than one percent away from this 20% threshold, so get ready to hear a lot about it when it eventually happens.
I’m not crazy about this concept, as we’ve been in the camp that the bear market ended in October for months now (we started to say it in late October, getting some really odd looks I might add), meaning a new bull market has been here for a while. Take another look at the great Yogi quote above, as someone can get whatever they want probably when talking about bear and bull markets.
None the less, what exactly does a 20% move higher off a bear market low really mean? The good news is future returns are quite strong.
We found 13 times that stocks soared at least 20% off a 52-week low and 10 times the lows were indeed in and not violated. The only times it didn’t work? Twice during the tech bubble implosion and once during the Financial Crisis. In other words, some of the truly worst times to be invested in stocks. But the other 10 times, once there was a 20% gain, the lows were in and in most cases, higher prices were soon coming. This chart does a nice job of showing this concept, with the red dots the times new lows were still yet to come after a 20% bounce.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s a table with all the breakdowns. A year later stocks were down only once and that was during the 2001/2002 bear market, with the average gain a year after a 20% bounce at a very impressive 17.7%. It is worth noting that the one- and three-month returns aren’t anything special, probably because some type of consolidation would be expected after surges higher, but six months and a year later are quite strong.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As we’ve been saying this full year, we continue to expect stocks to do well this year and the upward move is firmly in place and studies like this do little to change our opinion.
STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 9th, 2023
([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/11/23
([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)($ADBE $ORCL $KR $ACB $ATEX $ITI $LEN $MPAA $JBL $ECX $POWW $HITI $MMMB $CGNT $WLY $RFIL)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
(NONE.)
Monday 6.12.23 Before Market Open:
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)
Monday 6.12.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Tuesday 6.13.23 Before Market Open:
([CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)
Tuesday 6.13.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 6.14.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 6.14.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 6.15.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 6.15.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Friday 6.16.23 Before Market Open:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!]())
(NONE.)
Friday 6.16.23 After Market Close:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
DISCUSS!
What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!
2023.06.09 23:28 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023
Good Friday evening to all of you here on FinancialMarket! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023.
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead FinancialMarket. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to FinancialMarket [link] [comments]
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023.
S&P 500 notches fourth straight positive week, touches highest level since August: Live updates - (Source)
The S&P 500 rose slightly Friday, touching the 4,300 level for the first time since August 2022 as investors looked ahead to upcoming inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s latest policy announcement.
The broad-market index gained 0.11%, closing at 4,298.86. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.16% to end at 13,259.14. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded up 43.17 points, or 0.13%, closing at 33,876.78. It was the 30-stock Dow’s fourth consecutive positive day.
For the week, the S&P 500 was up 0.39%. This was the broad-market index’s fourth straight winning week — a feat it last accomplished in August. The Nasdaq was up about 0.14%, posting its seventh straight winning week — its first streak of that length since November 2019. The Dow advanced 0.34%.
Investors were encouraged by signs that a broader swath of stocks, including small-cap equities, was participating in the recent rally. The Russell 2000 was down slightly on the day, but notched a weekly gain of 1.9%.
“It’s the first time in a while where investors seem to be feeling a greater sense of certainty. And we think that’s been a turning point from what had been more of a bearish cautious sentiment,” said Greg Bassuk, CEO at AXS Investments.
“We think that as we walk through these next few weeks, that will be increasingly clear that the economy is more resilient than folks have given it credit for the last six months,” said Scott Ladner, chief investment officer at Horizon Investments. “That will sort of dawn on people that small-caps and cyclicals probably have a reasonable shot to play catch up.”
The market is also looking toward next week’s consumer price index numbers and the Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Markets are currently anticipating a more than 71% probability the central bank will pause on rate hikes at the June meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
S&P Sectors for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Indices for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)
Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)
Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
S&P Sectors for the Past Week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)
June’s Quad Witching Options Expiration Riddled With Volatility
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The second Triple Witching Week (Quadruple Witching if you prefer) of the year brings on some volatile trading with losses frequently exceeding gains. NASDAQ has the weakest record on the first trading day of the week. Triple-Witching Friday is usually better, S&P 500 has been up 12 of the last 20 years, but down 6 of the last 8.
Full-week performance is choppy as well, littered with greater than 1% moves in both directions. The week after June’s Triple-Witching Day is horrendous. This week has experienced DJIA losses in 27 of the last 33 years with an average performance of –0.81%. S&P 500 and NASDAQ have fared better during the week after over the same 33-year span. S&P 500’s averaged –0.46%. NASDAQ has averaged +0.03%. 2022’s sizable gains during the week after improve historical average performance notably.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
A New Bull Market: What’s Driving It?
The S&P 500 finally closed 20% above its October 12th (2022) closing low. This puts the index in “official” bull market territory.
Of course, if you had been reading or listening to Ryan on our Facts vs Feelings podcast, you’d have heard him say that October 12th was the low. He actually wrote a piece titled “Why Stocks Likely Just Bottomed” on October 19th!
The S&P 500 Index fell 25% from its peak on January 3rd, 2022 through October 12th. The subsequent 20% gain still puts it 10% below the prior peak. This does get to “math of volatility”. The index would need to gain 33% from its low to regain that level. This is a reason why it’s always better to lose less, is because you need to gain less to get back to even.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
So, what’s next? The good news is that future returns are strong. In his latest piece, Ryan wrote that out of 13 times when stocks rose 20% off a 52-week low, 10 of those times the lows were not violated. The average return 12 months later was close to 18%. The only time we didn’t see a gain was in the 2001-2002 bear market.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
** Digging into the return drivers**
It’s interesting to look at what’s been driving returns over the past year. This can help us think about what may lie ahead. The question was prompted by our friend, Sam Ro’s latest piece on the bull market breakout. He wrote that earnings haven’t been as bad as expected. More importantly, prospects have actually been improving.
The chart below shows earnings expectations for the S&P 500 over the next 12 months. You can see how it rose in the first half of 2022, before collapsing over the second half of the year. The collapse continued into January of this year. But since then, earnings expectations have steadily risen. In fact, they’ve accelerated higher since mid-April, after the last earnings season started. Currently, they’re higher than where we started the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Backing up a bit: we can break apart the price return of a stock (or index) into two components:
I decomposed annual S&P 500 returns from 2020 – 2023 (through June 8th) into these two components. The chart below shows how these added up to the total return for each year. It also includes:
- Earnings growth
- Valuation multiple growth
- The bear market pullback from January 3rd, 2022, through October 12th, 2022
- And the 20% rally from the low through June 8th, 2023
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
You can see how multiple changes have dominated the swing in returns.
The notable exception is 2021, when the S&P 500 return was propelled by earnings growth. In contrast, the 2022 pullback was entirely attributed to multiple contraction. Earnings made a positive contribution in 2022.
Now, multiple contraction is not surprising given the rapid change in rates, as the Federal Reserve (Fed) looked to get on top of inflation. However, they are close to the end of rate hikes, and so that’s no longer a big drag on multiples.
Consequently, multiple growth has pulled the index higher this year. You can see how multiple contraction basically drove the pullback in the Index during the bear market, through the low. But since then, multiples have expanded, pretty much driving the 20% gain.
Here’s a more dynamic picture of the S&P 500’s cumulative price return action from January 3rd, 2022, through June 8th, 2023. The chart also shows the contribution from earnings and multiple growth. As you can see, earnings have been fairly steady, rising 4% over the entire period. However, the swing in multiples is what drove the price return volatility.
Multiples contracted by 14%, and when combined with 4% earnings growth, you experienced the index return of -10%.
What next?
As I pointed out above, the problem for stocks last year was multiple contraction, which was driven by a rapid surge in interest rates.
The good news is that we’re probably close to end of rate hikes. The Fed may go ahead with just one more rate hike (in July), which is not much within the context of the 5%-point increase in rates that they implemented over the past year.
Our view is that rates are likely to remain where they are for a while. But rates are unlikely to rise from 5% to 10%, or even 7%, unless we get another major inflation shock.
This means a major obstacle that hindered stocks last year is dissipating. The removal of this headwind is yet another positive factor for stocks as we look ahead into the second half of the year.
Why Low Volatility Isn’t Bearish
“There is no such thing as average when it comes to the stock market or investing.” -Ryan Detrick
You might have heard by now, but the CBOE Volatility Index (better known as the VIX) made a new 52-week low earlier this week and closed beneath 14 for the first time in more than three years. This has many in the financial media clamoring that ‘the VIX is low and this is bearish’.
They have been telling us (incorrectly) that only five stocks have been going up and this was bearish, that a recession was right around the corner, that the yield curve being inverted was bearish, that M2 money supply YoY tanking was bearish, and now we have the VIX being low is bearish. We’ve disagreed with all of these worries and now we take issue with a low VIX as being bearish.
What exactly is the VIX you ask? I’d suggest reading this summary from Investopedia for a full explanation, but it is simply how much option players are willing to pay up for potential volatility over the coming 30 days. If they sense volatility, they will pay up for insurance. What you might know is that when the VIX is high (say above 30), that means the market tends to be more volatile and likely in a bearish phase. Versus a low VIX (say sub 15) historically has lead to some really nice bull markets and small amounts of volatility.
Back to your regularly scheduled blog now.
The last time the VIX went this long above 14 was for more than five years, ending in August 2012. You know what happened next that time? The S&P 500 added more than 18% the following 12 months. Yes, this is a sample size of one, but I think it shows that a VIX sub 14 by itself isn’t the end of the world.
One of the key concepts around volatility is trends can last for years. What I mean by this is for years the VIX can be high and for years it can be low. Since 1990, the average VIX was 19.7, but it rarely trades around that average. Take another look at the quote I’ve used many times above, as averages aren’t so average. This chart is one I’ve used for years now and I think we could be on the cusp of another low volatility regime. The red areas are times the VIX was consistently above 20, while the yellow were beneath 20. What you also need to know is those red periods usually took place during bear markets and very volatile markets, while the yellow periods were hallmarked by low volatility and higher equity prices. Are we about to enter a new period of lower volatility? No one of course knows, but if this is about to happen (which is my vote), it is another reason to think that higher equity prices (our base case as we remain overweight equities in our Carson House Views) will be coming.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lastly, I’ll leave you on this potentially bullish point. We like to use relative ratios to get a feel for how one asset is going versus to another. We always want to be in assets or sectors that are showing relative strength, while avoiding areas that are weak.
Well, stocks just broke out to new highs relative to bonds once again. After a period of consolidation during the bear market last year, now we have stocks firmly in the driver seat relative to bonds. This is another reason we remain overweight stocks currently and continue to expect stocks to do better than bonds going forward.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Our Leading Economic Index Says the Economy is Not in a Recession
We’ve been writing since the end of last year about how we believe the economy can avoid a recession in 2023, including in our 2023 outlook. This has run contrary to most other economists’ predictions. Interestingly, the tide has been shifting recently, as we’ve gotten a string of relatively stronger economic data. More so after the latest payrolls data, which surprised again.
One challenge with economic data is that we get so many of them, and a lot of times they can send conflicting signals. It can be hard to parse through all of it and come up with an updated view of the economy after every data release.
One approach is to combine these into a single indicator, i.e. a “leading economic index” (LEI). It’s “leading” because the idea is to give you an early warning signal about economic turning points.
Simply put, it tells you what the economy is doing today and what it is likely to do in the near future.
The most popular LEI points to recession
One of the most widely used LEI’s is released by the Conference Board, and it currently points to recession. As you can see in the chart below, the Conference Board’s LEI is highly correlated with GDP growth – the chart shows year-over-year change in both.
You can see how the index started to fall ahead of the 2001 and 2008 recession (shaded areas). The 2020 pandemic recession was an anomaly since it hit so suddenly. In any case, using an LEI means we didn’t have to wait for GDP data (which are released well after a quarter ends) to tell us whether the economy was close to, or in a recession.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As you probably noticed above, the LEI is down 8% year-over-year, signaling a recession over the next 12 months. It’s been pointing to a recession since last fall, with the index declining for 13 straight months through April.
Quoting the Conference Board:
“The Conference Board forecasts a contraction of economic activity starting in Q2 leading to a mild recession by mid-2023.”
Safe to say, we’re close to mid-2023 and there’s no sign of a recession yet.
What’s inside the LEI
The Conference Board’s LEI has 10 components of which,
You can see how these indicators have pulled the index down by 4.4% over the past 6 months, and by -0.6% in April alone.
- 3 are financial market indicators, including the S&P 500, and make up 22% of the index
- 4 measure business and manufacturing activity (44%)
- 1 measures housing activity (3%)
- 2 are related to the consumer, including the labor market (31%)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s the thing. This popular LEI is premised on the fact that the manufacturing sector, and business activity/sentiment, is a leading indicator of the economy. This worked well in the past but is probably not indicative of what’s happening in the economy right now. For one thing, the manufacturing sector makes up just about 11% of GDP.
Consumption makes up 68% of the economy, and we believe it’s important to capture that.
In fact, consumption was strong in Q1 and even at the start of Q2, thanks to rising real incomes. Housing is also making a turnaround and should no longer be a drag on the economy going forward (as it has been over the past 8 quarters). The Federal Reserve (Fed) is also close to being done with rate hikes. Plus, as my colleague, Ryan Detrick pointed out, the stock market’s turned around and is close to entering a new bull market.
Obviously, there are a lot of data points that we look at and one way we parse through all of it is by constructing our own leading economic index.
An LEI that better reflects the US economy
We believe our proprietary LEI better captures the dynamics of the US economy. It was developed a decade ago and is a key input into our asset allocation decisions.
In contrast to the Conference Board’s measure, it includes 20+ components, including,
Just as an example, the consumer-related data includes unemployment benefit claims, weekly hours worked, and vehicle sales. Housing includes indicators like building permits and new home sales.
- Consumer-related indicators (make up 50% of the index)
- Housing activity (18%)
- Business and manufacturing activity (23%)
- Financial markets (9%)
The chart below shows how our LEI has moved through time – capturing whether the economy is growing below trend, on-trend (a value close to zero), or above trend. Like the Conference Board’s measure, it is able to capture major turning points in the business cycle. It declined ahead of the actual start of the 2011 and 2008 recessions.
As of April, our index is indicating that the economy is growing right along trend.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Last year, the index signaled that the economy was growing below trend, and that the risk of a recession was high.
Note that it didn’t point to an actual recession. Just that “risk” of one was higher than normal. In fact, our LEI held close to the lows we saw over the last decade, especially in 2011 and 2016 (after which the economy, and even the stock market, recovered).
The following chart captures a close-up view of the last 3 and half years, which includes the Covid pullback and subsequent recovery. The contribution from the 4 major categories is also shown. You can see how the consumer has remained strong over the past year – in fact, consumer indicators have been stronger this year than in late 2022.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The main risk of a recession last year was due to the Fed raising rates as fast as they did, which adversely impacted housing, financial markets, and business activity.
The good news is that these sectors are improving even as consumer strength continues. The improvement in housing is notable. Additionally, the drag from financial conditions is beginning to ease as we think that the Federal Reserve gets closer to the end of rate hikes, and markets rally.
Putting the Puzzle Together
Another novel part of our approach is that we have an LEI like the one for the US for more than 25 other countries. Each one is custom built to capture the dynamics of those economies. The individual country LEIs are also subsequently rolled up to a global index to give us a picture of the global economy, as shown below.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
I want to emphasize that we do not rely solely on this as the one and only input into our asset allocation, portfolio and risk management decisions. While it is an important component that encapsulates a lot of significant information, it is just one piece of the puzzle. Our process also has other pillars such as policy (both monetary and fiscal), technical factors, and valuations.
We believe it’s important to put all these pieces together, kind of like putting together a puzzle, to understand what’s happening in the economy and markets, and position portfolios accordingly.
Putting together a puzzle is both a mechanistic and artistic process. The mechanistic aspect involves sorting the pieces, finding edges, and matching colors, etc. It requires a logical and methodical approach, and in our process the LEI is key to that.
However, there is an artistic element as well. As we assemble the pieces together, a larger picture gradually emerges. You can make creative decisions about how each piece fits within the overall picture. Within the context of portfolio management, that takes a diverse range of experience. Which is the core strength of our Investment Research Team.
Welcome to the New Bull Market
“If you torture numbers enough, they will tell you anything.” -Yogi Berra, Yankee great and Hall of Fame catcher
Don’t shoot the messenger, but historically, it is widely considered a new bull market once stocks are more than 20% off their bear market lows. This is similar to when stocks are down 20% they are in a bear market. Well, the S&P 500 is less than one percent away from this 20% threshold, so get ready to hear a lot about it when it eventually happens.
I’m not crazy about this concept, as we’ve been in the camp that the bear market ended in October for months now (we started to say it in late October, getting some really odd looks I might add), meaning a new bull market has been here for a while. Take another look at the great Yogi quote above, as someone can get whatever they want probably when talking about bear and bull markets.
None the less, what exactly does a 20% move higher off a bear market low really mean? The good news is future returns are quite strong.
We found 13 times that stocks soared at least 20% off a 52-week low and 10 times the lows were indeed in and not violated. The only times it didn’t work? Twice during the tech bubble implosion and once during the Financial Crisis. In other words, some of the truly worst times to be invested in stocks. But the other 10 times, once there was a 20% gain, the lows were in and in most cases, higher prices were soon coming. This chart does a nice job of showing this concept, with the red dots the times new lows were still yet to come after a 20% bounce.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s a table with all the breakdowns. A year later stocks were down only once and that was during the 2001/2002 bear market, with the average gain a year after a 20% bounce at a very impressive 17.7%. It is worth noting that the one- and three-month returns aren’t anything special, probably because some type of consolidation would be expected after surges higher, but six months and a year later are quite strong.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As we’ve been saying this full year, we continue to expect stocks to do well this year and the upward move is firmly in place and studies like this do little to change our opinion.
STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 9th, 2023
([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/11/23
([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)($ADBE $ORCL $KR $ACB $ATEX $ITI $LEN $MPAA $JBL $ECX $POWW $HITI $MMMB $CGNT $WLY $RFIL)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
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Monday 6.12.23 Before Market Open:
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
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Monday 6.12.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Tuesday 6.13.23 Before Market Open:
([CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
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Tuesday 6.13.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 6.14.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 6.14.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 6.15.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 6.15.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Friday 6.16.23 Before Market Open:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!]())
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Friday 6.16.23 After Market Close:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
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(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
DISCUSS!
What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!
2023.06.09 23:27 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023
Good Friday evening to all of you here on stocks! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023.
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead stocks. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to stocks [link] [comments]
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023.
S&P 500 notches fourth straight positive week, touches highest level since August: Live updates - (Source)
The S&P 500 rose slightly Friday, touching the 4,300 level for the first time since August 2022 as investors looked ahead to upcoming inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s latest policy announcement.
The broad-market index gained 0.11%, closing at 4,298.86. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.16% to end at 13,259.14. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded up 43.17 points, or 0.13%, closing at 33,876.78. It was the 30-stock Dow’s fourth consecutive positive day.
For the week, the S&P 500 was up 0.39%. This was the broad-market index’s fourth straight winning week — a feat it last accomplished in August. The Nasdaq was up about 0.14%, posting its seventh straight winning week — its first streak of that length since November 2019. The Dow advanced 0.34%.
Investors were encouraged by signs that a broader swath of stocks, including small-cap equities, was participating in the recent rally. The Russell 2000 was down slightly on the day, but notched a weekly gain of 1.9%.
“It’s the first time in a while where investors seem to be feeling a greater sense of certainty. And we think that’s been a turning point from what had been more of a bearish cautious sentiment,” said Greg Bassuk, CEO at AXS Investments.
“We think that as we walk through these next few weeks, that will be increasingly clear that the economy is more resilient than folks have given it credit for the last six months,” said Scott Ladner, chief investment officer at Horizon Investments. “That will sort of dawn on people that small-caps and cyclicals probably have a reasonable shot to play catch up.”
The market is also looking toward next week’s consumer price index numbers and the Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Markets are currently anticipating a more than 71% probability the central bank will pause on rate hikes at the June meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
S&P Sectors for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Indices for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)
Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)
Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
S&P Sectors for the Past Week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)
June’s Quad Witching Options Expiration Riddled With Volatility
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The second Triple Witching Week (Quadruple Witching if you prefer) of the year brings on some volatile trading with losses frequently exceeding gains. NASDAQ has the weakest record on the first trading day of the week. Triple-Witching Friday is usually better, S&P 500 has been up 12 of the last 20 years, but down 6 of the last 8.
Full-week performance is choppy as well, littered with greater than 1% moves in both directions. The week after June’s Triple-Witching Day is horrendous. This week has experienced DJIA losses in 27 of the last 33 years with an average performance of –0.81%. S&P 500 and NASDAQ have fared better during the week after over the same 33-year span. S&P 500’s averaged –0.46%. NASDAQ has averaged +0.03%. 2022’s sizable gains during the week after improve historical average performance notably.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
A New Bull Market: What’s Driving It?
The S&P 500 finally closed 20% above its October 12th (2022) closing low. This puts the index in “official” bull market territory.
Of course, if you had been reading or listening to Ryan on our Facts vs Feelings podcast, you’d have heard him say that October 12th was the low. He actually wrote a piece titled “Why Stocks Likely Just Bottomed” on October 19th!
The S&P 500 Index fell 25% from its peak on January 3rd, 2022 through October 12th. The subsequent 20% gain still puts it 10% below the prior peak. This does get to “math of volatility”. The index would need to gain 33% from its low to regain that level. This is a reason why it’s always better to lose less, is because you need to gain less to get back to even.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
So, what’s next? The good news is that future returns are strong. In his latest piece, Ryan wrote that out of 13 times when stocks rose 20% off a 52-week low, 10 of those times the lows were not violated. The average return 12 months later was close to 18%. The only time we didn’t see a gain was in the 2001-2002 bear market.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
** Digging into the return drivers**
It’s interesting to look at what’s been driving returns over the past year. This can help us think about what may lie ahead. The question was prompted by our friend, Sam Ro’s latest piece on the bull market breakout. He wrote that earnings haven’t been as bad as expected. More importantly, prospects have actually been improving.
The chart below shows earnings expectations for the S&P 500 over the next 12 months. You can see how it rose in the first half of 2022, before collapsing over the second half of the year. The collapse continued into January of this year. But since then, earnings expectations have steadily risen. In fact, they’ve accelerated higher since mid-April, after the last earnings season started. Currently, they’re higher than where we started the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Backing up a bit: we can break apart the price return of a stock (or index) into two components:
I decomposed annual S&P 500 returns from 2020 – 2023 (through June 8th) into these two components. The chart below shows how these added up to the total return for each year. It also includes:
- Earnings growth
- Valuation multiple growth
- The bear market pullback from January 3rd, 2022, through October 12th, 2022
- And the 20% rally from the low through June 8th, 2023
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
You can see how multiple changes have dominated the swing in returns.
The notable exception is 2021, when the S&P 500 return was propelled by earnings growth. In contrast, the 2022 pullback was entirely attributed to multiple contraction. Earnings made a positive contribution in 2022.
Now, multiple contraction is not surprising given the rapid change in rates, as the Federal Reserve (Fed) looked to get on top of inflation. However, they are close to the end of rate hikes, and so that’s no longer a big drag on multiples.
Consequently, multiple growth has pulled the index higher this year. You can see how multiple contraction basically drove the pullback in the Index during the bear market, through the low. But since then, multiples have expanded, pretty much driving the 20% gain.
Here’s a more dynamic picture of the S&P 500’s cumulative price return action from January 3rd, 2022, through June 8th, 2023. The chart also shows the contribution from earnings and multiple growth. As you can see, earnings have been fairly steady, rising 4% over the entire period. However, the swing in multiples is what drove the price return volatility.
Multiples contracted by 14%, and when combined with 4% earnings growth, you experienced the index return of -10%.
What next?
As I pointed out above, the problem for stocks last year was multiple contraction, which was driven by a rapid surge in interest rates.
The good news is that we’re probably close to end of rate hikes. The Fed may go ahead with just one more rate hike (in July), which is not much within the context of the 5%-point increase in rates that they implemented over the past year.
Our view is that rates are likely to remain where they are for a while. But rates are unlikely to rise from 5% to 10%, or even 7%, unless we get another major inflation shock.
This means a major obstacle that hindered stocks last year is dissipating. The removal of this headwind is yet another positive factor for stocks as we look ahead into the second half of the year.
Why Low Volatility Isn’t Bearish
“There is no such thing as average when it comes to the stock market or investing.” -Ryan Detrick
You might have heard by now, but the CBOE Volatility Index (better known as the VIX) made a new 52-week low earlier this week and closed beneath 14 for the first time in more than three years. This has many in the financial media clamoring that ‘the VIX is low and this is bearish’.
They have been telling us (incorrectly) that only five stocks have been going up and this was bearish, that a recession was right around the corner, that the yield curve being inverted was bearish, that M2 money supply YoY tanking was bearish, and now we have the VIX being low is bearish. We’ve disagreed with all of these worries and now we take issue with a low VIX as being bearish.
What exactly is the VIX you ask? I’d suggest reading this summary from Investopedia for a full explanation, but it is simply how much option players are willing to pay up for potential volatility over the coming 30 days. If they sense volatility, they will pay up for insurance. What you might know is that when the VIX is high (say above 30), that means the market tends to be more volatile and likely in a bearish phase. Versus a low VIX (say sub 15) historically has lead to some really nice bull markets and small amounts of volatility.
Back to your regularly scheduled blog now.
The last time the VIX went this long above 14 was for more than five years, ending in August 2012. You know what happened next that time? The S&P 500 added more than 18% the following 12 months. Yes, this is a sample size of one, but I think it shows that a VIX sub 14 by itself isn’t the end of the world.
One of the key concepts around volatility is trends can last for years. What I mean by this is for years the VIX can be high and for years it can be low. Since 1990, the average VIX was 19.7, but it rarely trades around that average. Take another look at the quote I’ve used many times above, as averages aren’t so average. This chart is one I’ve used for years now and I think we could be on the cusp of another low volatility regime. The red areas are times the VIX was consistently above 20, while the yellow were beneath 20. What you also need to know is those red periods usually took place during bear markets and very volatile markets, while the yellow periods were hallmarked by low volatility and higher equity prices. Are we about to enter a new period of lower volatility? No one of course knows, but if this is about to happen (which is my vote), it is another reason to think that higher equity prices (our base case as we remain overweight equities in our Carson House Views) will be coming.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lastly, I’ll leave you on this potentially bullish point. We like to use relative ratios to get a feel for how one asset is going versus to another. We always want to be in assets or sectors that are showing relative strength, while avoiding areas that are weak.
Well, stocks just broke out to new highs relative to bonds once again. After a period of consolidation during the bear market last year, now we have stocks firmly in the driver seat relative to bonds. This is another reason we remain overweight stocks currently and continue to expect stocks to do better than bonds going forward.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Our Leading Economic Index Says the Economy is Not in a Recession
We’ve been writing since the end of last year about how we believe the economy can avoid a recession in 2023, including in our 2023 outlook. This has run contrary to most other economists’ predictions. Interestingly, the tide has been shifting recently, as we’ve gotten a string of relatively stronger economic data. More so after the latest payrolls data, which surprised again.
One challenge with economic data is that we get so many of them, and a lot of times they can send conflicting signals. It can be hard to parse through all of it and come up with an updated view of the economy after every data release.
One approach is to combine these into a single indicator, i.e. a “leading economic index” (LEI). It’s “leading” because the idea is to give you an early warning signal about economic turning points.
Simply put, it tells you what the economy is doing today and what it is likely to do in the near future.
The most popular LEI points to recession
One of the most widely used LEI’s is released by the Conference Board, and it currently points to recession. As you can see in the chart below, the Conference Board’s LEI is highly correlated with GDP growth – the chart shows year-over-year change in both.
You can see how the index started to fall ahead of the 2001 and 2008 recession (shaded areas). The 2020 pandemic recession was an anomaly since it hit so suddenly. In any case, using an LEI means we didn’t have to wait for GDP data (which are released well after a quarter ends) to tell us whether the economy was close to, or in a recession.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As you probably noticed above, the LEI is down 8% year-over-year, signaling a recession over the next 12 months. It’s been pointing to a recession since last fall, with the index declining for 13 straight months through April.
Quoting the Conference Board:
“The Conference Board forecasts a contraction of economic activity starting in Q2 leading to a mild recession by mid-2023.”
Safe to say, we’re close to mid-2023 and there’s no sign of a recession yet.
What’s inside the LEI
The Conference Board’s LEI has 10 components of which,
You can see how these indicators have pulled the index down by 4.4% over the past 6 months, and by -0.6% in April alone.
- 3 are financial market indicators, including the S&P 500, and make up 22% of the index
- 4 measure business and manufacturing activity (44%)
- 1 measures housing activity (3%)
- 2 are related to the consumer, including the labor market (31%)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s the thing. This popular LEI is premised on the fact that the manufacturing sector, and business activity/sentiment, is a leading indicator of the economy. This worked well in the past but is probably not indicative of what’s happening in the economy right now. For one thing, the manufacturing sector makes up just about 11% of GDP.
Consumption makes up 68% of the economy, and we believe it’s important to capture that.
In fact, consumption was strong in Q1 and even at the start of Q2, thanks to rising real incomes. Housing is also making a turnaround and should no longer be a drag on the economy going forward (as it has been over the past 8 quarters). The Federal Reserve (Fed) is also close to being done with rate hikes. Plus, as my colleague, Ryan Detrick pointed out, the stock market’s turned around and is close to entering a new bull market.
Obviously, there are a lot of data points that we look at and one way we parse through all of it is by constructing our own leading economic index.
An LEI that better reflects the US economy
We believe our proprietary LEI better captures the dynamics of the US economy. It was developed a decade ago and is a key input into our asset allocation decisions.
In contrast to the Conference Board’s measure, it includes 20+ components, including,
Just as an example, the consumer-related data includes unemployment benefit claims, weekly hours worked, and vehicle sales. Housing includes indicators like building permits and new home sales.
- Consumer-related indicators (make up 50% of the index)
- Housing activity (18%)
- Business and manufacturing activity (23%)
- Financial markets (9%)
The chart below shows how our LEI has moved through time – capturing whether the economy is growing below trend, on-trend (a value close to zero), or above trend. Like the Conference Board’s measure, it is able to capture major turning points in the business cycle. It declined ahead of the actual start of the 2011 and 2008 recessions.
As of April, our index is indicating that the economy is growing right along trend.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Last year, the index signaled that the economy was growing below trend, and that the risk of a recession was high.
Note that it didn’t point to an actual recession. Just that “risk” of one was higher than normal. In fact, our LEI held close to the lows we saw over the last decade, especially in 2011 and 2016 (after which the economy, and even the stock market, recovered).
The following chart captures a close-up view of the last 3 and half years, which includes the Covid pullback and subsequent recovery. The contribution from the 4 major categories is also shown. You can see how the consumer has remained strong over the past year – in fact, consumer indicators have been stronger this year than in late 2022.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The main risk of a recession last year was due to the Fed raising rates as fast as they did, which adversely impacted housing, financial markets, and business activity.
The good news is that these sectors are improving even as consumer strength continues. The improvement in housing is notable. Additionally, the drag from financial conditions is beginning to ease as we think that the Federal Reserve gets closer to the end of rate hikes, and markets rally.
Putting the Puzzle Together
Another novel part of our approach is that we have an LEI like the one for the US for more than 25 other countries. Each one is custom built to capture the dynamics of those economies. The individual country LEIs are also subsequently rolled up to a global index to give us a picture of the global economy, as shown below.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
I want to emphasize that we do not rely solely on this as the one and only input into our asset allocation, portfolio and risk management decisions. While it is an important component that encapsulates a lot of significant information, it is just one piece of the puzzle. Our process also has other pillars such as policy (both monetary and fiscal), technical factors, and valuations.
We believe it’s important to put all these pieces together, kind of like putting together a puzzle, to understand what’s happening in the economy and markets, and position portfolios accordingly.
Putting together a puzzle is both a mechanistic and artistic process. The mechanistic aspect involves sorting the pieces, finding edges, and matching colors, etc. It requires a logical and methodical approach, and in our process the LEI is key to that.
However, there is an artistic element as well. As we assemble the pieces together, a larger picture gradually emerges. You can make creative decisions about how each piece fits within the overall picture. Within the context of portfolio management, that takes a diverse range of experience. Which is the core strength of our Investment Research Team.
Welcome to the New Bull Market
“If you torture numbers enough, they will tell you anything.” -Yogi Berra, Yankee great and Hall of Fame catcher
Don’t shoot the messenger, but historically, it is widely considered a new bull market once stocks are more than 20% off their bear market lows. This is similar to when stocks are down 20% they are in a bear market. Well, the S&P 500 is less than one percent away from this 20% threshold, so get ready to hear a lot about it when it eventually happens.
I’m not crazy about this concept, as we’ve been in the camp that the bear market ended in October for months now (we started to say it in late October, getting some really odd looks I might add), meaning a new bull market has been here for a while. Take another look at the great Yogi quote above, as someone can get whatever they want probably when talking about bear and bull markets.
None the less, what exactly does a 20% move higher off a bear market low really mean? The good news is future returns are quite strong.
We found 13 times that stocks soared at least 20% off a 52-week low and 10 times the lows were indeed in and not violated. The only times it didn’t work? Twice during the tech bubble implosion and once during the Financial Crisis. In other words, some of the truly worst times to be invested in stocks. But the other 10 times, once there was a 20% gain, the lows were in and in most cases, higher prices were soon coming. This chart does a nice job of showing this concept, with the red dots the times new lows were still yet to come after a 20% bounce.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s a table with all the breakdowns. A year later stocks were down only once and that was during the 2001/2002 bear market, with the average gain a year after a 20% bounce at a very impressive 17.7%. It is worth noting that the one- and three-month returns aren’t anything special, probably because some type of consolidation would be expected after surges higher, but six months and a year later are quite strong.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As we’ve been saying this full year, we continue to expect stocks to do well this year and the upward move is firmly in place and studies like this do little to change our opinion.
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
(NONE.)
Monday 6.12.23 Before Market Open:
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)
Monday 6.12.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Tuesday 6.13.23 Before Market Open:
([CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)
Tuesday 6.13.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 6.14.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 6.14.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 6.15.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 6.15.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Friday 6.16.23 Before Market Open:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!]())
(NONE.)
Friday 6.16.23 After Market Close:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
DISCUSS!
What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?2023.06.09 23:25 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023
Good Friday evening to all of you here on StockMarketChat! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023.
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead StockMarketChat. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to StockMarketChat [link] [comments]
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023.
S&P 500 notches fourth straight positive week, touches highest level since August: Live updates - (Source)
The S&P 500 rose slightly Friday, touching the 4,300 level for the first time since August 2022 as investors looked ahead to upcoming inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s latest policy announcement.
The broad-market index gained 0.11%, closing at 4,298.86. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.16% to end at 13,259.14. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded up 43.17 points, or 0.13%, closing at 33,876.78. It was the 30-stock Dow’s fourth consecutive positive day.
For the week, the S&P 500 was up 0.39%. This was the broad-market index’s fourth straight winning week — a feat it last accomplished in August. The Nasdaq was up about 0.14%, posting its seventh straight winning week — its first streak of that length since November 2019. The Dow advanced 0.34%.
Investors were encouraged by signs that a broader swath of stocks, including small-cap equities, was participating in the recent rally. The Russell 2000 was down slightly on the day, but notched a weekly gain of 1.9%.
“It’s the first time in a while where investors seem to be feeling a greater sense of certainty. And we think that’s been a turning point from what had been more of a bearish cautious sentiment,” said Greg Bassuk, CEO at AXS Investments.
“We think that as we walk through these next few weeks, that will be increasingly clear that the economy is more resilient than folks have given it credit for the last six months,” said Scott Ladner, chief investment officer at Horizon Investments. “That will sort of dawn on people that small-caps and cyclicals probably have a reasonable shot to play catch up.”
The market is also looking toward next week’s consumer price index numbers and the Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Markets are currently anticipating a more than 71% probability the central bank will pause on rate hikes at the June meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
S&P Sectors for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Indices for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)
Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)
Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
S&P Sectors for the Past Week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)
June’s Quad Witching Options Expiration Riddled With Volatility
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The second Triple Witching Week (Quadruple Witching if you prefer) of the year brings on some volatile trading with losses frequently exceeding gains. NASDAQ has the weakest record on the first trading day of the week. Triple-Witching Friday is usually better, S&P 500 has been up 12 of the last 20 years, but down 6 of the last 8.
Full-week performance is choppy as well, littered with greater than 1% moves in both directions. The week after June’s Triple-Witching Day is horrendous. This week has experienced DJIA losses in 27 of the last 33 years with an average performance of –0.81%. S&P 500 and NASDAQ have fared better during the week after over the same 33-year span. S&P 500’s averaged –0.46%. NASDAQ has averaged +0.03%. 2022’s sizable gains during the week after improve historical average performance notably.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
A New Bull Market: What’s Driving It?
The S&P 500 finally closed 20% above its October 12th (2022) closing low. This puts the index in “official” bull market territory.
Of course, if you had been reading or listening to Ryan on our Facts vs Feelings podcast, you’d have heard him say that October 12th was the low. He actually wrote a piece titled “Why Stocks Likely Just Bottomed” on October 19th!
The S&P 500 Index fell 25% from its peak on January 3rd, 2022 through October 12th. The subsequent 20% gain still puts it 10% below the prior peak. This does get to “math of volatility”. The index would need to gain 33% from its low to regain that level. This is a reason why it’s always better to lose less, is because you need to gain less to get back to even.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
So, what’s next? The good news is that future returns are strong. In his latest piece, Ryan wrote that out of 13 times when stocks rose 20% off a 52-week low, 10 of those times the lows were not violated. The average return 12 months later was close to 18%. The only time we didn’t see a gain was in the 2001-2002 bear market.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
** Digging into the return drivers**
It’s interesting to look at what’s been driving returns over the past year. This can help us think about what may lie ahead. The question was prompted by our friend, Sam Ro’s latest piece on the bull market breakout. He wrote that earnings haven’t been as bad as expected. More importantly, prospects have actually been improving.
The chart below shows earnings expectations for the S&P 500 over the next 12 months. You can see how it rose in the first half of 2022, before collapsing over the second half of the year. The collapse continued into January of this year. But since then, earnings expectations have steadily risen. In fact, they’ve accelerated higher since mid-April, after the last earnings season started. Currently, they’re higher than where we started the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Backing up a bit: we can break apart the price return of a stock (or index) into two components:
I decomposed annual S&P 500 returns from 2020 – 2023 (through June 8th) into these two components. The chart below shows how these added up to the total return for each year. It also includes:
- Earnings growth
- Valuation multiple growth
- The bear market pullback from January 3rd, 2022, through October 12th, 2022
- And the 20% rally from the low through June 8th, 2023
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
You can see how multiple changes have dominated the swing in returns.
The notable exception is 2021, when the S&P 500 return was propelled by earnings growth. In contrast, the 2022 pullback was entirely attributed to multiple contraction. Earnings made a positive contribution in 2022.
Now, multiple contraction is not surprising given the rapid change in rates, as the Federal Reserve (Fed) looked to get on top of inflation. However, they are close to the end of rate hikes, and so that’s no longer a big drag on multiples.
Consequently, multiple growth has pulled the index higher this year. You can see how multiple contraction basically drove the pullback in the Index during the bear market, through the low. But since then, multiples have expanded, pretty much driving the 20% gain.
Here’s a more dynamic picture of the S&P 500’s cumulative price return action from January 3rd, 2022, through June 8th, 2023. The chart also shows the contribution from earnings and multiple growth. As you can see, earnings have been fairly steady, rising 4% over the entire period. However, the swing in multiples is what drove the price return volatility.
Multiples contracted by 14%, and when combined with 4% earnings growth, you experienced the index return of -10%.
What next?
As I pointed out above, the problem for stocks last year was multiple contraction, which was driven by a rapid surge in interest rates.
The good news is that we’re probably close to end of rate hikes. The Fed may go ahead with just one more rate hike (in July), which is not much within the context of the 5%-point increase in rates that they implemented over the past year.
Our view is that rates are likely to remain where they are for a while. But rates are unlikely to rise from 5% to 10%, or even 7%, unless we get another major inflation shock.
This means a major obstacle that hindered stocks last year is dissipating. The removal of this headwind is yet another positive factor for stocks as we look ahead into the second half of the year.
Why Low Volatility Isn’t Bearish
“There is no such thing as average when it comes to the stock market or investing.” -Ryan Detrick
You might have heard by now, but the CBOE Volatility Index (better known as the VIX) made a new 52-week low earlier this week and closed beneath 14 for the first time in more than three years. This has many in the financial media clamoring that ‘the VIX is low and this is bearish’.
They have been telling us (incorrectly) that only five stocks have been going up and this was bearish, that a recession was right around the corner, that the yield curve being inverted was bearish, that M2 money supply YoY tanking was bearish, and now we have the VIX being low is bearish. We’ve disagreed with all of these worries and now we take issue with a low VIX as being bearish.
What exactly is the VIX you ask? I’d suggest reading this summary from Investopedia for a full explanation, but it is simply how much option players are willing to pay up for potential volatility over the coming 30 days. If they sense volatility, they will pay up for insurance. What you might know is that when the VIX is high (say above 30), that means the market tends to be more volatile and likely in a bearish phase. Versus a low VIX (say sub 15) historically has lead to some really nice bull markets and small amounts of volatility.
Back to your regularly scheduled blog now.
The last time the VIX went this long above 14 was for more than five years, ending in August 2012. You know what happened next that time? The S&P 500 added more than 18% the following 12 months. Yes, this is a sample size of one, but I think it shows that a VIX sub 14 by itself isn’t the end of the world.
One of the key concepts around volatility is trends can last for years. What I mean by this is for years the VIX can be high and for years it can be low. Since 1990, the average VIX was 19.7, but it rarely trades around that average. Take another look at the quote I’ve used many times above, as averages aren’t so average. This chart is one I’ve used for years now and I think we could be on the cusp of another low volatility regime. The red areas are times the VIX was consistently above 20, while the yellow were beneath 20. What you also need to know is those red periods usually took place during bear markets and very volatile markets, while the yellow periods were hallmarked by low volatility and higher equity prices. Are we about to enter a new period of lower volatility? No one of course knows, but if this is about to happen (which is my vote), it is another reason to think that higher equity prices (our base case as we remain overweight equities in our Carson House Views) will be coming.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lastly, I’ll leave you on this potentially bullish point. We like to use relative ratios to get a feel for how one asset is going versus to another. We always want to be in assets or sectors that are showing relative strength, while avoiding areas that are weak.
Well, stocks just broke out to new highs relative to bonds once again. After a period of consolidation during the bear market last year, now we have stocks firmly in the driver seat relative to bonds. This is another reason we remain overweight stocks currently and continue to expect stocks to do better than bonds going forward.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Our Leading Economic Index Says the Economy is Not in a Recession
We’ve been writing since the end of last year about how we believe the economy can avoid a recession in 2023, including in our 2023 outlook. This has run contrary to most other economists’ predictions. Interestingly, the tide has been shifting recently, as we’ve gotten a string of relatively stronger economic data. More so after the latest payrolls data, which surprised again.
One challenge with economic data is that we get so many of them, and a lot of times they can send conflicting signals. It can be hard to parse through all of it and come up with an updated view of the economy after every data release.
One approach is to combine these into a single indicator, i.e. a “leading economic index” (LEI). It’s “leading” because the idea is to give you an early warning signal about economic turning points.
Simply put, it tells you what the economy is doing today and what it is likely to do in the near future.
The most popular LEI points to recession
One of the most widely used LEI’s is released by the Conference Board, and it currently points to recession. As you can see in the chart below, the Conference Board’s LEI is highly correlated with GDP growth – the chart shows year-over-year change in both.
You can see how the index started to fall ahead of the 2001 and 2008 recession (shaded areas). The 2020 pandemic recession was an anomaly since it hit so suddenly. In any case, using an LEI means we didn’t have to wait for GDP data (which are released well after a quarter ends) to tell us whether the economy was close to, or in a recession.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As you probably noticed above, the LEI is down 8% year-over-year, signaling a recession over the next 12 months. It’s been pointing to a recession since last fall, with the index declining for 13 straight months through April.
Quoting the Conference Board:
“The Conference Board forecasts a contraction of economic activity starting in Q2 leading to a mild recession by mid-2023.”
Safe to say, we’re close to mid-2023 and there’s no sign of a recession yet.
What’s inside the LEI
The Conference Board’s LEI has 10 components of which,
You can see how these indicators have pulled the index down by 4.4% over the past 6 months, and by -0.6% in April alone.
- 3 are financial market indicators, including the S&P 500, and make up 22% of the index
- 4 measure business and manufacturing activity (44%)
- 1 measures housing activity (3%)
- 2 are related to the consumer, including the labor market (31%)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s the thing. This popular LEI is premised on the fact that the manufacturing sector, and business activity/sentiment, is a leading indicator of the economy. This worked well in the past but is probably not indicative of what’s happening in the economy right now. For one thing, the manufacturing sector makes up just about 11% of GDP.
Consumption makes up 68% of the economy, and we believe it’s important to capture that.
In fact, consumption was strong in Q1 and even at the start of Q2, thanks to rising real incomes. Housing is also making a turnaround and should no longer be a drag on the economy going forward (as it has been over the past 8 quarters). The Federal Reserve (Fed) is also close to being done with rate hikes. Plus, as my colleague, Ryan Detrick pointed out, the stock market’s turned around and is close to entering a new bull market.
Obviously, there are a lot of data points that we look at and one way we parse through all of it is by constructing our own leading economic index.
An LEI that better reflects the US economy
We believe our proprietary LEI better captures the dynamics of the US economy. It was developed a decade ago and is a key input into our asset allocation decisions.
In contrast to the Conference Board’s measure, it includes 20+ components, including,
Just as an example, the consumer-related data includes unemployment benefit claims, weekly hours worked, and vehicle sales. Housing includes indicators like building permits and new home sales.
- Consumer-related indicators (make up 50% of the index)
- Housing activity (18%)
- Business and manufacturing activity (23%)
- Financial markets (9%)
The chart below shows how our LEI has moved through time – capturing whether the economy is growing below trend, on-trend (a value close to zero), or above trend. Like the Conference Board’s measure, it is able to capture major turning points in the business cycle. It declined ahead of the actual start of the 2011 and 2008 recessions.
As of April, our index is indicating that the economy is growing right along trend.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Last year, the index signaled that the economy was growing below trend, and that the risk of a recession was high.
Note that it didn’t point to an actual recession. Just that “risk” of one was higher than normal. In fact, our LEI held close to the lows we saw over the last decade, especially in 2011 and 2016 (after which the economy, and even the stock market, recovered).
The following chart captures a close-up view of the last 3 and half years, which includes the Covid pullback and subsequent recovery. The contribution from the 4 major categories is also shown. You can see how the consumer has remained strong over the past year – in fact, consumer indicators have been stronger this year than in late 2022.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The main risk of a recession last year was due to the Fed raising rates as fast as they did, which adversely impacted housing, financial markets, and business activity.
The good news is that these sectors are improving even as consumer strength continues. The improvement in housing is notable. Additionally, the drag from financial conditions is beginning to ease as we think that the Federal Reserve gets closer to the end of rate hikes, and markets rally.
Putting the Puzzle Together
Another novel part of our approach is that we have an LEI like the one for the US for more than 25 other countries. Each one is custom built to capture the dynamics of those economies. The individual country LEIs are also subsequently rolled up to a global index to give us a picture of the global economy, as shown below.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
I want to emphasize that we do not rely solely on this as the one and only input into our asset allocation, portfolio and risk management decisions. While it is an important component that encapsulates a lot of significant information, it is just one piece of the puzzle. Our process also has other pillars such as policy (both monetary and fiscal), technical factors, and valuations.
We believe it’s important to put all these pieces together, kind of like putting together a puzzle, to understand what’s happening in the economy and markets, and position portfolios accordingly.
Putting together a puzzle is both a mechanistic and artistic process. The mechanistic aspect involves sorting the pieces, finding edges, and matching colors, etc. It requires a logical and methodical approach, and in our process the LEI is key to that.
However, there is an artistic element as well. As we assemble the pieces together, a larger picture gradually emerges. You can make creative decisions about how each piece fits within the overall picture. Within the context of portfolio management, that takes a diverse range of experience. Which is the core strength of our Investment Research Team.
Welcome to the New Bull Market
“If you torture numbers enough, they will tell you anything.” -Yogi Berra, Yankee great and Hall of Fame catcher
Don’t shoot the messenger, but historically, it is widely considered a new bull market once stocks are more than 20% off their bear market lows. This is similar to when stocks are down 20% they are in a bear market. Well, the S&P 500 is less than one percent away from this 20% threshold, so get ready to hear a lot about it when it eventually happens.
I’m not crazy about this concept, as we’ve been in the camp that the bear market ended in October for months now (we started to say it in late October, getting some really odd looks I might add), meaning a new bull market has been here for a while. Take another look at the great Yogi quote above, as someone can get whatever they want probably when talking about bear and bull markets.
None the less, what exactly does a 20% move higher off a bear market low really mean? The good news is future returns are quite strong.
We found 13 times that stocks soared at least 20% off a 52-week low and 10 times the lows were indeed in and not violated. The only times it didn’t work? Twice during the tech bubble implosion and once during the Financial Crisis. In other words, some of the truly worst times to be invested in stocks. But the other 10 times, once there was a 20% gain, the lows were in and in most cases, higher prices were soon coming. This chart does a nice job of showing this concept, with the red dots the times new lows were still yet to come after a 20% bounce.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s a table with all the breakdowns. A year later stocks were down only once and that was during the 2001/2002 bear market, with the average gain a year after a 20% bounce at a very impressive 17.7%. It is worth noting that the one- and three-month returns aren’t anything special, probably because some type of consolidation would be expected after surges higher, but six months and a year later are quite strong.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As we’ve been saying this full year, we continue to expect stocks to do well this year and the upward move is firmly in place and studies like this do little to change our opinion.
STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 9th, 2023
([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/11/23
([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)($ADBE $ORCL $KR $ACB $ATEX $ITI $LEN $MPAA $JBL $ECX $POWW $HITI $MMMB $CGNT $WLY $RFIL)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
(NONE.)
Monday 6.12.23 Before Market Open:
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)
Monday 6.12.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Tuesday 6.13.23 Before Market Open:
([CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)
Tuesday 6.13.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 6.14.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 6.14.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 6.15.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 6.15.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Friday 6.16.23 Before Market Open:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!]())
(NONE.)
Friday 6.16.23 After Market Close:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
DISCUSS!
What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!
2023.06.09 22:35 Sufficient_Career713 You never think it will happen to you: A Labor Story
CW: Birth Trauma, Medical Trauma, NICU Parent, PPD, and boundless joy
Hi all, FTM (35F) of a wonderful, perfect 3 month old baby girl.
This will be a long post but I wanted to write somethings down for my own processing and to simply share some of the things that we've gone through since LO arrived. My intention is not to scare or trigger anyone but rather share my story in the hopes that others might find some normalcy and support.
If you're anything like me I was scouring the internet prior to delivery. LO was ultimately delivered at 41w1d and I was HUGE. I'm 5'3" and I had gained over 50 lbs almost entirely in my belly. I was curb walking as much as possible and I did all of the things - eating dates, raspberry tea, exercises, stretches - anything to get baby to come on her own. I was having contractions for weeeeeks but nothing that ever escalated into true labor. I was exhausted despite my entire pregnancy being pretty textbook. There were no red flags at any point despite having done all of the standard tests and ultrasounds. Everything was pointing towards an easy delivery and healthy baby.
I was very done with pregnancy and, against my original plans (a theme), I decided to get induced. Went into the hospital on the evening of Feb 27 and had cervidil (sp??). It's supposedly more chill than pitocin. Things started happening around the morning of Feb 28. I was having real contractions and things were moving! The midwives were stoked that I responded so favorably without pitocin. Then things really started to ramp up. I was in triage waiting to be transferred to L&D (another theme) and was having really intense contractions. I finally (against what I had initially wanted) decided to take a narcotic. I needed a break and I was many hours away from full dilation plus I couldn't get an epidural until I was in L&D. Oof huge mistake. My contractions were just as intense as ever except during the in between I was having hallucinations. Luckily I had experienced drugs similar before so I knew what was going on but it worried my partner a lot (another theme). At this point I'm vomiting, my nurse is trying to get me transferred asap, my doula shows up and is trying to help me, and I'm wavering between screaming pain and having wild (and hilarious?) hallucinations.
Finally I'm cleared to transfer to L&D. Puke cup in hand, my nurse is running with me barely sitting in a wheelchair. I was so hot at that point that I remember it felt like a welcomed cool breeze. Partner is chasing behind us with far too many pieces of luggage in tow. We burst in the room and I was demanding to sit on the toilet but mostly was so blinded by pain I didn't really know what was going on or what I needed. Once again the doulas did their best to help me calm down and get through it. One of the nurses looked me dead in the eyes and was like "You can sit on that toilet but DO NOT push." I'm like 6 centimeters at this point and I couldn't believe the sensations pulsing through my body. I had wanted to wait for an epidural but I knew then that I needed it asap. I was able to miraculously sit still and felt the numbing cold take over. It was amazing. The next few hours were spent hanging out and getting to know the doulas. The nurse told me that my contractions were off the charts. Apparently they were lasting for two minutes and were shaped like a plateau instead of a gentle curve. My midwives were great and everyone was very encouraging and happy with my progress. I was almost fully dilated and we decided to burst my waters.
I was excited. There was A LOT of amniotic fluid. Unfortunately it was brown which indicated that baby had passed meconium which, given how over due I was, wasn't out of the ordinary. It also meant that NICU staff would be present for the delivery once the time came. I was finally ready to start pushing. Minutes turned into hours. My baby's head was through my cervix but she seemed stuck. 4 hours went by with no progress so we made the difficult decision to have a C section. It would be another 2 hours before an OR would open up so I just had to wait. By this point the epidural was wearing off and I was having break through contractions but I couldn't do anything with them because we knew the baby wasn't coming any other way.
This is where things really go south so stop reading if you need to <3.
Once I'm finally in the OR it's like 4AM. I'm strapped and straddled on the operating table and I can't stop shaking. It was terrifying. My partner is there with me but all I remember is fear. I also remember double checking with my nurse that NICU staff was in the room. The surgeons then test to see that I've had enough anesthesia which I hadn't so they had to give me fentanyl so things could get a move on. Eventually I felt no pain, just the movement of the procedure. I was laying there waiting to hear my baby's cries and to finally have her on my chest. I felt a lot of movement in my abdomen and I remember asking "Is that the baby? Is she dancing?" and the anesthesiologist said "No they're delivering your placenta and performing a fundal massage to prevent hemorrhage." This is when I knew something was really wrong. Those are the things they do after the baby's been born but I didn't hear my baby nor did I see her. I begin asking what's going on, I ask my partner if he can see her. He can't. All he can see is a lot of movement from different doctors. They finally tell us that she needs to be admitted to the NICU. I ask to at least see her and she's wheeled by me in a bassinet already swaddled and en route. We found out much later (when we were ready to hear what happened) that when she was born she had aspirated a lot of meconium and wasn't breathing. Her APGAR score was a 3. She was immediately intubated and it took around 10 minutes to resuscitate her (miraculously she didn't suffer brain damage).
Afterwards we were taken into a recovery room. We had been awake for over 24 hours at this point and were exhausted, devastated, and confused. We didn't know what happened and were waiting for news while I had to endure more fundal massages. A NICU doctor came to my bedside to inform us that they suspected she has having seizures, was at high risk of a blood infection, and may have some kind of genetic issue. We were in hysterics. Just totally beside ourselves. The nurses that had been with us came to say goodbye with tears in their eyes. They knew we had been traumatized and I think they may have been too.
They told us they were waiting for a postpartum room near the NICU to open up so we were just waiting. At this point, my baby was still very abstract to me. I was much more concerned about my very exhausted partner who had witnessed all of the trauma that happened. And was still carrying all of our stupid bags that I had packed. I sent him to the NICU to go see the baby. She was on oxygen and in an incubator. Her face was swollen from being stuck in the birth canal for 6 hours. I got to see her a few hours later but I could only touch her cheek. As I was leaving she was being hooked up to an EEG to check for seizures. We finally, after many hours, were moved into our postpartum room where I insisted we both take a nap before returning to the NICU. By this point we had delivered the news to our friends and families and let people know to please not reach out. It's hard to communicate the complexity of feelings we had. It was so devastating yet he and I felt so bonded together. Nothing else mattered but the three of us.
I'm told the weather was beautiful that day. I hadn't even considered a world existed outside of us. I didn't remember an outside until days had gone by. He pushed me in my wheelchair to get some food one morning and I saw the sun. I didn't remember there was a sun or that other people were just going about their days.
While LO was in the NICU she had every test under the sun and all of them kept coming back favorably. She wasn't having seizures, her brain looked great, her heart looked great, etc. Except there was still a question of a possible genetic issue but no one knew for sure. Her eyes were bulging but it could have been because of birth trauma or she just sort of looked like that. It wasn't until she had her hearing test that something went wrong again. I found solace in knowing failed hearing tests are pretty common and we'd just have to wait to meet with an audiologist for confirmation. During our stay I became a breast pumping machine. It was the only thing I could do on my own to help. I was immobilized from the C section and I felt so very hopeless that pumping was the one thing that gave me some satisfaction. LO had a significant tongue tie so latching proved impossible. My partner bonded with the baby immediately - he did the bulk of her care while in the NICU. For me, however, it took time. It's hard to admit but if I'm being honest it took me a few weeks to really fall in love and bond with her. I think part of it was the delivery and because I wasn't physically able to do the bulk of her care in the NICU. Also, I was in a grieving period. I was grieving the labor experience I hoped for and I was grieving the child I thought I was going to have.
After 5 incredibly long yet miraculous days we were both discharged together. We had a long list of follow up appointments but we didn't care. We were going home and it was a beautiful day. We laugh/cried the whole way home.
Close friends and both of our parents were there when we arrived home with an overwhelming amount of food. We were grateful. But also, hearing the excitement from others was really difficult for a long time. It took awhile for us to appreciate being congratulated. It felt like a stab every time.
That first week we had a number of doctors appointments. When she went to get her tongue tie snipped, her ENT discovered that she didn't have ear canals. Her external ear was fully formed but her middle ear was a closed pit. There were a lot of tears that day. It was the first time something was decidedly "wrong" and it was the first time there was a strong hint towards a genetic issue.
I don't remember the sequence of events and diagnoses - it was an emotional whirlwind. We learned that she has two chromosomal deletions of which the symptoms and severity vary greatly and we won't know the full extent of her disabilities for years. She does have conductive hearing loss (though I generally say she's deaf because its true and its a little easier to explain) and will be receiving a bone anchored hearing aid (BAHA). We're also invested in learning ASL so that she will have access to both spoken and signed language. She has strabismus (lazy eye) and ptosis (droopy eye) as well as craniosynostosis. She will be undergoing intense skull surgery later this year. Despite all of this she is thriving.
During the early weeks of postpartum I was not well. My partner had no time off and my family, while good intentioned, didn't really know how to talk about or meaningfully support a special needs child. It became clear that I needed some medical intervention so I enrolled in intensive therapy and began taking SSRIs. It may have saved our lives. I was not well and I knew it. I was struggling to bond and I was so devastated by her health outlook on top of all the normal lack of sleep, breast pumping stress, and lack of familial support that I needed to actively make a change. I did and I'm glad for it. I'm in a much better place now!
The love and joy I feel towards my child is unbelievable. People say that children bring joy to your life and it's really true. I love her with my whole heart. I am and will probably always be saddened by some of the trials she will be forced to endure in this world - her life will not be easy. But I am so committed to being at her side every step of the way. I love her totally and completely. Its hard to explain in words the depth of love I have for her. She's not what we imagined but no child ever is. Prior to her being born we always said we'd love and support her no matter who she became and that remains the case.
submitted by Sufficient_Career713 to beyondthebump [link] [comments]
Hi all, FTM (35F) of a wonderful, perfect 3 month old baby girl.
This will be a long post but I wanted to write somethings down for my own processing and to simply share some of the things that we've gone through since LO arrived. My intention is not to scare or trigger anyone but rather share my story in the hopes that others might find some normalcy and support.
If you're anything like me I was scouring the internet prior to delivery. LO was ultimately delivered at 41w1d and I was HUGE. I'm 5'3" and I had gained over 50 lbs almost entirely in my belly. I was curb walking as much as possible and I did all of the things - eating dates, raspberry tea, exercises, stretches - anything to get baby to come on her own. I was having contractions for weeeeeks but nothing that ever escalated into true labor. I was exhausted despite my entire pregnancy being pretty textbook. There were no red flags at any point despite having done all of the standard tests and ultrasounds. Everything was pointing towards an easy delivery and healthy baby.
I was very done with pregnancy and, against my original plans (a theme), I decided to get induced. Went into the hospital on the evening of Feb 27 and had cervidil (sp??). It's supposedly more chill than pitocin. Things started happening around the morning of Feb 28. I was having real contractions and things were moving! The midwives were stoked that I responded so favorably without pitocin. Then things really started to ramp up. I was in triage waiting to be transferred to L&D (another theme) and was having really intense contractions. I finally (against what I had initially wanted) decided to take a narcotic. I needed a break and I was many hours away from full dilation plus I couldn't get an epidural until I was in L&D. Oof huge mistake. My contractions were just as intense as ever except during the in between I was having hallucinations. Luckily I had experienced drugs similar before so I knew what was going on but it worried my partner a lot (another theme). At this point I'm vomiting, my nurse is trying to get me transferred asap, my doula shows up and is trying to help me, and I'm wavering between screaming pain and having wild (and hilarious?) hallucinations.
Finally I'm cleared to transfer to L&D. Puke cup in hand, my nurse is running with me barely sitting in a wheelchair. I was so hot at that point that I remember it felt like a welcomed cool breeze. Partner is chasing behind us with far too many pieces of luggage in tow. We burst in the room and I was demanding to sit on the toilet but mostly was so blinded by pain I didn't really know what was going on or what I needed. Once again the doulas did their best to help me calm down and get through it. One of the nurses looked me dead in the eyes and was like "You can sit on that toilet but DO NOT push." I'm like 6 centimeters at this point and I couldn't believe the sensations pulsing through my body. I had wanted to wait for an epidural but I knew then that I needed it asap. I was able to miraculously sit still and felt the numbing cold take over. It was amazing. The next few hours were spent hanging out and getting to know the doulas. The nurse told me that my contractions were off the charts. Apparently they were lasting for two minutes and were shaped like a plateau instead of a gentle curve. My midwives were great and everyone was very encouraging and happy with my progress. I was almost fully dilated and we decided to burst my waters.
I was excited. There was A LOT of amniotic fluid. Unfortunately it was brown which indicated that baby had passed meconium which, given how over due I was, wasn't out of the ordinary. It also meant that NICU staff would be present for the delivery once the time came. I was finally ready to start pushing. Minutes turned into hours. My baby's head was through my cervix but she seemed stuck. 4 hours went by with no progress so we made the difficult decision to have a C section. It would be another 2 hours before an OR would open up so I just had to wait. By this point the epidural was wearing off and I was having break through contractions but I couldn't do anything with them because we knew the baby wasn't coming any other way.
This is where things really go south so stop reading if you need to <3.
Once I'm finally in the OR it's like 4AM. I'm strapped and straddled on the operating table and I can't stop shaking. It was terrifying. My partner is there with me but all I remember is fear. I also remember double checking with my nurse that NICU staff was in the room. The surgeons then test to see that I've had enough anesthesia which I hadn't so they had to give me fentanyl so things could get a move on. Eventually I felt no pain, just the movement of the procedure. I was laying there waiting to hear my baby's cries and to finally have her on my chest. I felt a lot of movement in my abdomen and I remember asking "Is that the baby? Is she dancing?" and the anesthesiologist said "No they're delivering your placenta and performing a fundal massage to prevent hemorrhage." This is when I knew something was really wrong. Those are the things they do after the baby's been born but I didn't hear my baby nor did I see her. I begin asking what's going on, I ask my partner if he can see her. He can't. All he can see is a lot of movement from different doctors. They finally tell us that she needs to be admitted to the NICU. I ask to at least see her and she's wheeled by me in a bassinet already swaddled and en route. We found out much later (when we were ready to hear what happened) that when she was born she had aspirated a lot of meconium and wasn't breathing. Her APGAR score was a 3. She was immediately intubated and it took around 10 minutes to resuscitate her (miraculously she didn't suffer brain damage).
Afterwards we were taken into a recovery room. We had been awake for over 24 hours at this point and were exhausted, devastated, and confused. We didn't know what happened and were waiting for news while I had to endure more fundal massages. A NICU doctor came to my bedside to inform us that they suspected she has having seizures, was at high risk of a blood infection, and may have some kind of genetic issue. We were in hysterics. Just totally beside ourselves. The nurses that had been with us came to say goodbye with tears in their eyes. They knew we had been traumatized and I think they may have been too.
They told us they were waiting for a postpartum room near the NICU to open up so we were just waiting. At this point, my baby was still very abstract to me. I was much more concerned about my very exhausted partner who had witnessed all of the trauma that happened. And was still carrying all of our stupid bags that I had packed. I sent him to the NICU to go see the baby. She was on oxygen and in an incubator. Her face was swollen from being stuck in the birth canal for 6 hours. I got to see her a few hours later but I could only touch her cheek. As I was leaving she was being hooked up to an EEG to check for seizures. We finally, after many hours, were moved into our postpartum room where I insisted we both take a nap before returning to the NICU. By this point we had delivered the news to our friends and families and let people know to please not reach out. It's hard to communicate the complexity of feelings we had. It was so devastating yet he and I felt so bonded together. Nothing else mattered but the three of us.
I'm told the weather was beautiful that day. I hadn't even considered a world existed outside of us. I didn't remember an outside until days had gone by. He pushed me in my wheelchair to get some food one morning and I saw the sun. I didn't remember there was a sun or that other people were just going about their days.
While LO was in the NICU she had every test under the sun and all of them kept coming back favorably. She wasn't having seizures, her brain looked great, her heart looked great, etc. Except there was still a question of a possible genetic issue but no one knew for sure. Her eyes were bulging but it could have been because of birth trauma or she just sort of looked like that. It wasn't until she had her hearing test that something went wrong again. I found solace in knowing failed hearing tests are pretty common and we'd just have to wait to meet with an audiologist for confirmation. During our stay I became a breast pumping machine. It was the only thing I could do on my own to help. I was immobilized from the C section and I felt so very hopeless that pumping was the one thing that gave me some satisfaction. LO had a significant tongue tie so latching proved impossible. My partner bonded with the baby immediately - he did the bulk of her care while in the NICU. For me, however, it took time. It's hard to admit but if I'm being honest it took me a few weeks to really fall in love and bond with her. I think part of it was the delivery and because I wasn't physically able to do the bulk of her care in the NICU. Also, I was in a grieving period. I was grieving the labor experience I hoped for and I was grieving the child I thought I was going to have.
After 5 incredibly long yet miraculous days we were both discharged together. We had a long list of follow up appointments but we didn't care. We were going home and it was a beautiful day. We laugh/cried the whole way home.
Close friends and both of our parents were there when we arrived home with an overwhelming amount of food. We were grateful. But also, hearing the excitement from others was really difficult for a long time. It took awhile for us to appreciate being congratulated. It felt like a stab every time.
That first week we had a number of doctors appointments. When she went to get her tongue tie snipped, her ENT discovered that she didn't have ear canals. Her external ear was fully formed but her middle ear was a closed pit. There were a lot of tears that day. It was the first time something was decidedly "wrong" and it was the first time there was a strong hint towards a genetic issue.
I don't remember the sequence of events and diagnoses - it was an emotional whirlwind. We learned that she has two chromosomal deletions of which the symptoms and severity vary greatly and we won't know the full extent of her disabilities for years. She does have conductive hearing loss (though I generally say she's deaf because its true and its a little easier to explain) and will be receiving a bone anchored hearing aid (BAHA). We're also invested in learning ASL so that she will have access to both spoken and signed language. She has strabismus (lazy eye) and ptosis (droopy eye) as well as craniosynostosis. She will be undergoing intense skull surgery later this year. Despite all of this she is thriving.
During the early weeks of postpartum I was not well. My partner had no time off and my family, while good intentioned, didn't really know how to talk about or meaningfully support a special needs child. It became clear that I needed some medical intervention so I enrolled in intensive therapy and began taking SSRIs. It may have saved our lives. I was not well and I knew it. I was struggling to bond and I was so devastated by her health outlook on top of all the normal lack of sleep, breast pumping stress, and lack of familial support that I needed to actively make a change. I did and I'm glad for it. I'm in a much better place now!
The love and joy I feel towards my child is unbelievable. People say that children bring joy to your life and it's really true. I love her with my whole heart. I am and will probably always be saddened by some of the trials she will be forced to endure in this world - her life will not be easy. But I am so committed to being at her side every step of the way. I love her totally and completely. Its hard to explain in words the depth of love I have for her. She's not what we imagined but no child ever is. Prior to her being born we always said we'd love and support her no matter who she became and that remains the case.
2023.06.09 20:48 Friendly_Read_3846 [WTS] 24k Chains, 24k Pendants, 22k Chain, 14k Cuban Link, 14k Ropes, 14k Nugget Ring, 24k 🍁 Coin Pendant, Gold Money Clip, 14k Xan Bar, 14k Curb, 14k Franco, Assorted Gold/Diamond Rings, Silver Cubans, Silver Ropes BEST PRICES ON REDDIT
Happy Friday everyone 👋 another really cool assortment of gold, Silver, and Diamond jewelry up for grabs today!
All items are stamped, tested, and in excellent condition.
A lot of the items (especially rings) are in brand new condition and noted as such in the ad.
All diamonds listed are natural (NO LAB DIAMONDS).
All 925 silver pieces listed are brand new and imported from Italy.
Proof: https://imgur.com/a/rWq7a38
1.) 24” 24k Bar & Anchor Baht Chain 4.4mm 75.0g $5300 https://imgur.com/a/AJjbAlg -incredible hand made 24k Baht chain. One of the nicest pieces I’ve ever come across.
2.) 23” 24k Bar & Anchor Baht Chain 2.2mm 18.9g SOLD https://imgur.com/a/5GJKPBT
3.) 24k Gold Tiger Pendant 37.0g SOLD https://imgur.com/a/sP5dWb0 -Custom handmade pendant that is truly a work of art. Detail on this piece is really insane.
4.) 24k Gold Pendant with Red Gemstone 7.8g SOLD https://imgur.com/a/z9SVPdL
5.) 20” 24k Baht Chain 2.1mm 16.0g SOLD https://imgur.com/a/n19G6qI
6.) 22” 22k Baht Chain 2.8mm 30.2g $1856 https://imgur.com/a/Af2qeYa -very cool authentic Baht chain that was hand made in Guam. See if anyone is paying attention to this steal pricing ☝️
7.) 20” 14k Gold Cuban Link 5.1mm 40.3g $1690 https://imgur.com/a/7vnctjp -beautiful solid handmade Cuban with very tight links. Excellent condition looks unworn.
8.) 25” 14k Gold Diamond Cut Rope 3mm 19.9g $820 https://imgur.com/a/cM041nA
9.) 18” 14k Gold Rope 2.7mm 12.4g $500 PENDING https://imgur.com/a/tAVuEKJ
10.) 20” 14k Gold Rope 2mm 11.1g $450 https://imgur.com/a/ZNOBQ4u
11.) 14k Nugget Ring size 9 8.3g $342 https://imgur.com/a/P44m05H
12.) 14k Coin Bezel with 1/10oz 1982 Gold Maple Coin 5.1g total weight SOLD https://imgur.com/a/WYackuq -3.39g 24k and 1.7g of 14k gold.
13.) 10k Gold Dollar Sign Money Clip 8.3g $238 https://imgur.com/a/igmpAXg
14.) 14k Xan*x Bar Custom Hand Pour 6.5g SOLD https://imgur.com/a/yjIFel2 -still in sealed container and comes with certificate of authenticity from the artist who poured it.
15.) Brand new 24” 14k Gold Diamond Cut Franco 3.5mm 52.4g $2220 https://imgur.com/a/qBAOgZB
16.) 24” 14k Gold Curb 4.6mm 13.4g $535 https://imgur.com/a/dj8D9XX
17.) Size 6 14k Gold and .5ct Emerald Cut F/VS Natural Diamond 9.1g $625 https://imgur.com/a/tOdwq4q
18.) Size 7 14k Gold and 1.2ct Baguette G-H Natural Diamonds 6.6g $550 https://imgur.com/a/FNVJKGx
19.) Size 8 14k WG and 1ct Baguette/Round Natural Diamonds 8.7g $675 https://imgur.com/a/iDWeizG
20.) Size 12 14k WG with 1.1ct G/H Si Natural Diamonds 7.7g $520 https://imgur.com/a/3sFTRdG -full on clean 10 pointer natural diamonds. Very very nice Men’s ring. Diamonds hit hard!
21.) Size 6 18k Gold 11.4mm Pearl with .80ct G VS Natural Diamonds 8.9g $600 https://imgur.com/a/AcP02bT -brand new 18k ring ($425 in gold at melt), .80ct of true VS round and baguette stones ($650/ct wholesale), and free Pearl.
22.) Size 9 14k Gold .5ct Diamond Mens Ring 6.2g SOLD https://imgur.com/a/5ry4J9G -very nice almost .40ct round brilliant diamond center and another .1-.2ct on the sides
Silver Cubans (Box Lock):
23.) 7.5” 12mm Silver Cuban 67.4g SOLD https://imgur.com/a/XgoKp2z
24.) 8” 12mm Silver Cuban 67.3g $140 https://imgur.com/a/62jmHhZ
25.) 9” 12mm Silver Cuban 79.1g $164 https://imgur.com/a/XiFGF8D
26.) 20” 12mm Silver Cuban 160.5g $325 https://imgur.com/a/WbXtLC6
27.) 22” 12mm Silver Cuban 187.5g $375 https://m.imgur.com/a/eOVbMEK
28.) 24” 12mm Silver Cuban 204.1g $408 https://imgur.com/a/Pt7pi67
29.) 26” 12mm Silver Cuban 221.0g $435 https://imgur.com/a/DImd2BG
30.) 28” 12mm Silver Cuban 237.2g $466 https://imgur.com/a/Aye2ioi
31.) 8” 10mm Silver Cuban 45.1g $95 https://imgur.io/a/F04V3Za
32.) 8.5” 10mm Silver Cuban 50.3g $105 https://imgur.com/a/aQSOOy5
33.) 9” 10mm Silver Cuban 54.2g $112 https://imgur.com/a/snAtxfL
34.) 20” 10mm Silver Cuban 110.9g $225 https://imgur.com/a/DC1WwGv
35.) 22” 10mm Silver Cuban 121.8g $245 https://imgur.com/a/Kf8o0AX
36.) 26” 10mm Silver Cuban 141.2g $282 https://imgur.com/a/apezBOZ
37.) 28” 10mm Silver Cuban 154.2g $288 https://imgur.com/a/BxabdtS
38.)30” 10mm Silver Cuban 164.2g $324 https://imgur.com/a/cnAP509
39.) 7” 8mm Silver Cuban 30.2g $65 https://imgur.com/a/r1L0lWM
40.) 7.5” 8mm Cuban 32.1g $70 https://imgur.com/a/PqraPDf
41.) 8” 8mm Cuban 33.6g $72 https://imgur.com/a/FHAiBD5
42.) 8.5” 8mm Silver Cuban 36.9g $80 https://imgur.com/a/IBucChB
43.) 9” 8mm Silver Cuban 41.5g $88 https://imgur.com/a/B0F4wy4
44.) 20” 8mm Cuban 85.2g $175 https://imgur.com/a/QgfX8hD
45.) 24” 8mm Cuban 98.5g $200 https://imgur.io/a/shhuw1s
46.) 26” 8mm Cuban 104.8g $210 https://imgur.com/a/FrNnBSH
Silver Ropes:
47.) 24” 7mm Silver Rope 100g $194 https://imgur.com/a/uzA5UA0
48.) 26” 7mm Silver Rope 106g $205 https://imgur.com/a/iRH8Vw5
49.) 28” 7mm Silver Rope 114g $220 https://imgur.com/a/m43EyQZ
I have 30-40kg of assorted silver jewelry (Ropes, Cubans, Franco, Curb, etc) so if you’re looking for any please shoot me a PM. I unfortunately don’t have time to list them all individually but peep the last proof pic. I do have individual photo albums of each item I can provide on request. I’ll beat anyone on here’s prices on Silver jewelry 100% guaranteed.
Shipping via first class ($5) or priority ($9). All items ship within 24 hours of purchase.
Payment via Zelle, Venmo, CashApp, eCheck, PayPal (It’s a biz acct so I only have G&S which is +3.5% due to the PayPal fee).
I DO NOT ACCEPT FORMS OF PAYMENT NOT LISTED. ABSOLUTELY NO EXCEPTIONS.
Any questions please let me know! Thanks
submitted by Friendly_Read_3846 to Pmsforsale [link] [comments]
All items are stamped, tested, and in excellent condition.
A lot of the items (especially rings) are in brand new condition and noted as such in the ad.
All diamonds listed are natural (NO LAB DIAMONDS).
All 925 silver pieces listed are brand new and imported from Italy.
Proof: https://imgur.com/a/rWq7a38
1.) 24” 24k Bar & Anchor Baht Chain 4.4mm 75.0g $5300 https://imgur.com/a/AJjbAlg -incredible hand made 24k Baht chain. One of the nicest pieces I’ve ever come across.
2.) 23” 24k Bar & Anchor Baht Chain 2.2mm 18.9g SOLD https://imgur.com/a/5GJKPBT
3.) 24k Gold Tiger Pendant 37.0g SOLD https://imgur.com/a/sP5dWb0 -Custom handmade pendant that is truly a work of art. Detail on this piece is really insane.
4.) 24k Gold Pendant with Red Gemstone 7.8g SOLD https://imgur.com/a/z9SVPdL
5.) 20” 24k Baht Chain 2.1mm 16.0g SOLD https://imgur.com/a/n19G6qI
6.) 22” 22k Baht Chain 2.8mm 30.2g $1856 https://imgur.com/a/Af2qeYa -very cool authentic Baht chain that was hand made in Guam. See if anyone is paying attention to this steal pricing ☝️
7.) 20” 14k Gold Cuban Link 5.1mm 40.3g $1690 https://imgur.com/a/7vnctjp -beautiful solid handmade Cuban with very tight links. Excellent condition looks unworn.
8.) 25” 14k Gold Diamond Cut Rope 3mm 19.9g $820 https://imgur.com/a/cM041nA
9.) 18” 14k Gold Rope 2.7mm 12.4g $500 PENDING https://imgur.com/a/tAVuEKJ
10.) 20” 14k Gold Rope 2mm 11.1g $450 https://imgur.com/a/ZNOBQ4u
11.) 14k Nugget Ring size 9 8.3g $342 https://imgur.com/a/P44m05H
12.) 14k Coin Bezel with 1/10oz 1982 Gold Maple Coin 5.1g total weight SOLD https://imgur.com/a/WYackuq -3.39g 24k and 1.7g of 14k gold.
13.) 10k Gold Dollar Sign Money Clip 8.3g $238 https://imgur.com/a/igmpAXg
14.) 14k Xan*x Bar Custom Hand Pour 6.5g SOLD https://imgur.com/a/yjIFel2 -still in sealed container and comes with certificate of authenticity from the artist who poured it.
15.) Brand new 24” 14k Gold Diamond Cut Franco 3.5mm 52.4g $2220 https://imgur.com/a/qBAOgZB
16.) 24” 14k Gold Curb 4.6mm 13.4g $535 https://imgur.com/a/dj8D9XX
17.) Size 6 14k Gold and .5ct Emerald Cut F/VS Natural Diamond 9.1g $625 https://imgur.com/a/tOdwq4q
18.) Size 7 14k Gold and 1.2ct Baguette G-H Natural Diamonds 6.6g $550 https://imgur.com/a/FNVJKGx
19.) Size 8 14k WG and 1ct Baguette/Round Natural Diamonds 8.7g $675 https://imgur.com/a/iDWeizG
20.) Size 12 14k WG with 1.1ct G/H Si Natural Diamonds 7.7g $520 https://imgur.com/a/3sFTRdG -full on clean 10 pointer natural diamonds. Very very nice Men’s ring. Diamonds hit hard!
21.) Size 6 18k Gold 11.4mm Pearl with .80ct G VS Natural Diamonds 8.9g $600 https://imgur.com/a/AcP02bT -brand new 18k ring ($425 in gold at melt), .80ct of true VS round and baguette stones ($650/ct wholesale), and free Pearl.
22.) Size 9 14k Gold .5ct Diamond Mens Ring 6.2g SOLD https://imgur.com/a/5ry4J9G -very nice almost .40ct round brilliant diamond center and another .1-.2ct on the sides
Silver Cubans (Box Lock):
23.) 7.5” 12mm Silver Cuban 67.4g SOLD https://imgur.com/a/XgoKp2z
24.) 8” 12mm Silver Cuban 67.3g $140 https://imgur.com/a/62jmHhZ
25.) 9” 12mm Silver Cuban 79.1g $164 https://imgur.com/a/XiFGF8D
26.) 20” 12mm Silver Cuban 160.5g $325 https://imgur.com/a/WbXtLC6
27.) 22” 12mm Silver Cuban 187.5g $375 https://m.imgur.com/a/eOVbMEK
28.) 24” 12mm Silver Cuban 204.1g $408 https://imgur.com/a/Pt7pi67
29.) 26” 12mm Silver Cuban 221.0g $435 https://imgur.com/a/DImd2BG
30.) 28” 12mm Silver Cuban 237.2g $466 https://imgur.com/a/Aye2ioi
31.) 8” 10mm Silver Cuban 45.1g $95 https://imgur.io/a/F04V3Za
32.) 8.5” 10mm Silver Cuban 50.3g $105 https://imgur.com/a/aQSOOy5
33.) 9” 10mm Silver Cuban 54.2g $112 https://imgur.com/a/snAtxfL
34.) 20” 10mm Silver Cuban 110.9g $225 https://imgur.com/a/DC1WwGv
35.) 22” 10mm Silver Cuban 121.8g $245 https://imgur.com/a/Kf8o0AX
36.) 26” 10mm Silver Cuban 141.2g $282 https://imgur.com/a/apezBOZ
37.) 28” 10mm Silver Cuban 154.2g $288 https://imgur.com/a/BxabdtS
38.)30” 10mm Silver Cuban 164.2g $324 https://imgur.com/a/cnAP509
39.) 7” 8mm Silver Cuban 30.2g $65 https://imgur.com/a/r1L0lWM
40.) 7.5” 8mm Cuban 32.1g $70 https://imgur.com/a/PqraPDf
41.) 8” 8mm Cuban 33.6g $72 https://imgur.com/a/FHAiBD5
42.) 8.5” 8mm Silver Cuban 36.9g $80 https://imgur.com/a/IBucChB
43.) 9” 8mm Silver Cuban 41.5g $88 https://imgur.com/a/B0F4wy4
44.) 20” 8mm Cuban 85.2g $175 https://imgur.com/a/QgfX8hD
45.) 24” 8mm Cuban 98.5g $200 https://imgur.io/a/shhuw1s
46.) 26” 8mm Cuban 104.8g $210 https://imgur.com/a/FrNnBSH
Silver Ropes:
47.) 24” 7mm Silver Rope 100g $194 https://imgur.com/a/uzA5UA0
48.) 26” 7mm Silver Rope 106g $205 https://imgur.com/a/iRH8Vw5
49.) 28” 7mm Silver Rope 114g $220 https://imgur.com/a/m43EyQZ
I have 30-40kg of assorted silver jewelry (Ropes, Cubans, Franco, Curb, etc) so if you’re looking for any please shoot me a PM. I unfortunately don’t have time to list them all individually but peep the last proof pic. I do have individual photo albums of each item I can provide on request. I’ll beat anyone on here’s prices on Silver jewelry 100% guaranteed.
Shipping via first class ($5) or priority ($9). All items ship within 24 hours of purchase.
Payment via Zelle, Venmo, CashApp, eCheck, PayPal (It’s a biz acct so I only have G&S which is +3.5% due to the PayPal fee).
I DO NOT ACCEPT FORMS OF PAYMENT NOT LISTED. ABSOLUTELY NO EXCEPTIONS.
Any questions please let me know! Thanks
2023.06.09 19:43 stefanks92 Seeking Advice: Stomach Issues, Back Pain
Hi good people,
I am struggling with a certain condition and I feel like I've reached a dead end. I guess that's why I'm writing this post, seeking your advice on what my next step should be, as I'm feeling desperate.
I'm a 31-year-old male, 179cm 68kg, don't smore or drink, leading a healthy lifestyle with a balanced diet and regular exercise. However, about 10 months ago, I started experiencing stomach issues along with mid-back pain (centered) - not sure if they're related, but as the months passed, my gastro issues began to bother me more and more, same as back pain. In September, two months after the first symptoms, I had a terrible episode of stomach pain in the mid-stomach region, around four fingers above the navel. The pain was very sharp, as if someone were squeezing my stomach tightly. I was sweating profusely and struggling not to vomit. Since then, my digestive issues have become a daily occurrence. I haven't lost my appetite, but regardless of what I eat, I experience stomach pain or discomfort, always same location, naussea almost never again. During that episode of sharp pain, I lost 7 kilograms in one week, and I haven't been able to regain my regular weight of 75 kilograms since then.
The back pain bothers me the most. It feels like a deep, dull, squeezing pain in the center of my back, and in the mornings, I also experience pain behind my right back rib cage, similar to a pressure-like sensation. I have visited a gastroenterologist multiple times, with the first visit being in November last year. We conducted all kind of blood tests, including liver function tests, hepatitis tests, and HIV tests, but all the results were within the normal range. An endoscopy revealed chronic gastritis, and a biopsy confirmed negative H. pylori. I also did CT scan with contrast, which showed everything as normal (honestly, I didn't trust the doctors much at the hospital where the CT was performed, and also CT was older not in the best condition). For my back pain, I had an MRI done, and once again, the results showed everything as normal. I even visited a neurologist who assured me that there was nothing wrong with my back.
While my bowel movements are regular, ever since my first stomach issues 10 months ago, my stool has been loose, floating, and consists of separate hard lumps. It is lighter in color than usual, and for the past month, I've noticed blood in my stool, although the intensity varies. I visited the gastroenterologist again, and again all kind of blood tests, which once again showed normal results, except for my direct bilirubin levels, which were at 5.8 umol/l (the normal range is 0.0-3.4 umol/l) and positive FOBT. My total bilirubin levels were within the normal range, at 18.4 umol/l (the range being 5.0-21 umol/l). Additionally, I no longer have medical insurance, which adds to my worries. I feel like I'm at a dead end now.
The back pain is what scares me the most, especially because it started alongside my gastrointestinal issues. It comes and goes, but each time it returns, it becomes more severe. At this point, I don't know what to do anymore and now, with the elevated bilirubin levels, worrying even more because all I can read is cancer, cancer, cancer ofc :)
Any input or suggestions would be greatly appreciated. Thank you all
submitted by stefanks92 to AskDocs [link] [comments]
I am struggling with a certain condition and I feel like I've reached a dead end. I guess that's why I'm writing this post, seeking your advice on what my next step should be, as I'm feeling desperate.
I'm a 31-year-old male, 179cm 68kg, don't smore or drink, leading a healthy lifestyle with a balanced diet and regular exercise. However, about 10 months ago, I started experiencing stomach issues along with mid-back pain (centered) - not sure if they're related, but as the months passed, my gastro issues began to bother me more and more, same as back pain. In September, two months after the first symptoms, I had a terrible episode of stomach pain in the mid-stomach region, around four fingers above the navel. The pain was very sharp, as if someone were squeezing my stomach tightly. I was sweating profusely and struggling not to vomit. Since then, my digestive issues have become a daily occurrence. I haven't lost my appetite, but regardless of what I eat, I experience stomach pain or discomfort, always same location, naussea almost never again. During that episode of sharp pain, I lost 7 kilograms in one week, and I haven't been able to regain my regular weight of 75 kilograms since then.
The back pain bothers me the most. It feels like a deep, dull, squeezing pain in the center of my back, and in the mornings, I also experience pain behind my right back rib cage, similar to a pressure-like sensation. I have visited a gastroenterologist multiple times, with the first visit being in November last year. We conducted all kind of blood tests, including liver function tests, hepatitis tests, and HIV tests, but all the results were within the normal range. An endoscopy revealed chronic gastritis, and a biopsy confirmed negative H. pylori. I also did CT scan with contrast, which showed everything as normal (honestly, I didn't trust the doctors much at the hospital where the CT was performed, and also CT was older not in the best condition). For my back pain, I had an MRI done, and once again, the results showed everything as normal. I even visited a neurologist who assured me that there was nothing wrong with my back.
While my bowel movements are regular, ever since my first stomach issues 10 months ago, my stool has been loose, floating, and consists of separate hard lumps. It is lighter in color than usual, and for the past month, I've noticed blood in my stool, although the intensity varies. I visited the gastroenterologist again, and again all kind of blood tests, which once again showed normal results, except for my direct bilirubin levels, which were at 5.8 umol/l (the normal range is 0.0-3.4 umol/l) and positive FOBT. My total bilirubin levels were within the normal range, at 18.4 umol/l (the range being 5.0-21 umol/l). Additionally, I no longer have medical insurance, which adds to my worries. I feel like I'm at a dead end now.
The back pain is what scares me the most, especially because it started alongside my gastrointestinal issues. It comes and goes, but each time it returns, it becomes more severe. At this point, I don't know what to do anymore and now, with the elevated bilirubin levels, worrying even more because all I can read is cancer, cancer, cancer ofc :)
Any input or suggestions would be greatly appreciated. Thank you all
2023.06.09 16:34 artisanrox 6/9--VOCs and lots of Editorials.
Good Morning RonaPA!
I hope you stayed safe during the recent wildfire fallout.
Still don't have optimal equipment here and I have some things I need to do today so again this will be short.
I'm going to edit this post a lot so I don't lose my work. Please check back later if it doesn't look right quite yet. I apologize for the inconvenience.
There are no new variants to monitor yet for speed on the horizon but there are a few already in circulation that are being watched for severity and NOT speed:
XBB.1.9.1
FL.2
FL.4
CH.1.1
FE.1.1
EG.1.2
BR.2.1
Fit-tested N95s are best and ideal though I understand just not practical for everyone.
Head-loop respirators protect BETTER than ear-loop models BUT ear-loop models can be modified to fit better.
CLOTH MASKS/BANDANNAS DO NOT FILTER OUT FINE SMOKE PARTICLES. They are not enough as microscopic smoke particles are many times smaller than particles that carry pathogens. You need an electrostatic respirator and at least MERV-11 filters for smoke.
Wildfire smoke contains lots of heavy metals which makes it dangerous for pets too.
For Christ's sake don't turn on Fox Entertainment, stop other people from watching it and don't listen to them saying wildfire smoke is just A-OK to breathe.
We are not even in "wildfire season" yet and conditions are already extremely dry. Lightning strikes have contributed to almost all fires in Canada, including the one that darkened our own sky. This is creating perfect conditions to be an unprecedentedly bad fire season. Be prepared!
Neat trackers:
🔴-Covid Variant Dashboard and Tracking SARSCoV2 XBB.1.16 Lineage Over Time by Arkansas data scientist Raj Rajnarayan
🔴-Biobot (Wastewater)
🔴-CDC NOWCAST variant proportion tracker
🔴-Honey/Gilchrist variant proportion visualizer and How to Use It!
Education:
🔴 -An important post here (found on Twitter, posted by tern) recently on this EXTREMELY IMPORTANT .PDF release from the CDC that contains:
If you didn't catch/test +/deal with symptoms of COVID-19, DO NOT seek out to get infected with it.
If you caught COVID-19 once, DO NOT seek out catching it again.
And WEAR A MASK. Don't spread it!
🔴 -COVID-19 Immunology 101 for Non-immunologists by Dr. Akiko Iwasaki
🔴 -How the Immune System Works, beautifully illustrated by Kurzgesagt. (Seriously, Kurzgesagt is wonderful, go check it out.)
🔴 -The T-cells are Not Alright, an interview with Dr. Anthony Leonardi
🔴 -How SARS-CoV-2 Battles Our Immune System: Meet the protein arsenal wielded by the pandemic virus
🔴 -How to Build a Corsi-Rosenthal Box and then make them look snazzy!
🔴 -Safer, more cautious gatherings.
🔴 -MASK TYPE MATTERS with the latest Omicron Sars-CoV-2 mutations. Here is a chart comparing mask types, mutation type, and the time it takes in each to receive a problematic dose of Sars-CoV-2.
🔴 -A thread by Dr. Jeff Gilchrist explaining how high level respirators work, more mask comparisons, and answers to why we can still smell things even with high level respirators on.
Continue to have a great and safe spring season (and if you pray, pray for good rain!) 🌧🌧🌧🌧
submitted by artisanrox to CoronaVirusPA [link] [comments]
I hope you stayed safe during the recent wildfire fallout.
Still don't have optimal equipment here and I have some things I need to do today so again this will be short.
I'm going to edit this post a lot so I don't lose my work. Please check back later if it doesn't look right quite yet. I apologize for the inconvenience.
REDDIT API access
Barring a COVID news emergency, I won't be posting an update on Monday 6/12 in solidarity with Reddit going dark for 2 days. Reddit is making third party moderating/browsing API access inaccessibly expensive. You can find out more (you'll need to review options especially if you use Apollo, Reddit Is Fun, etc.) on APIcalypse.VOCs
XBB.1.5 still in the lead with 28% share.There are no new variants to monitor yet for speed on the horizon but there are a few already in circulation that are being watched for severity and NOT speed:
XBB.1.9.1
FL.2
FL.4
CH.1.1
FE.1.1
EG.1.2
BR.2.1
Editorials
Respirators, CR Boxes, and Wildfires...they're all related!!
Just a reminder that if you have respirators on hand (N95, KN95, P100, N99, etc.) or you made a Corsi-Rosenthal box in the past whatever months, that these come in extremely handy to stay safer from wildfire smoke!Fit-tested N95s are best and ideal though I understand just not practical for everyone.
Head-loop respirators protect BETTER than ear-loop models BUT ear-loop models can be modified to fit better.
CLOTH MASKS/BANDANNAS DO NOT FILTER OUT FINE SMOKE PARTICLES. They are not enough as microscopic smoke particles are many times smaller than particles that carry pathogens. You need an electrostatic respirator and at least MERV-11 filters for smoke.
Wildfire smoke contains lots of heavy metals which makes it dangerous for pets too.
For Christ's sake don't turn on Fox Entertainment, stop other people from watching it and don't listen to them saying wildfire smoke is just A-OK to breathe.
We are not even in "wildfire season" yet and conditions are already extremely dry. Lightning strikes have contributed to almost all fires in Canada, including the one that darkened our own sky. This is creating perfect conditions to be an unprecedentedly bad fire season. Be prepared!
Neat trackers:
🔴-Covid Variant Dashboard and Tracking SARSCoV2 XBB.1.16 Lineage Over Time by Arkansas data scientist Raj Rajnarayan
🔴-Biobot (Wastewater)
🔴-CDC NOWCAST variant proportion tracker
🔴-Honey/Gilchrist variant proportion visualizer and How to Use It!
Education:
🔴 -An important post here (found on Twitter, posted by tern) recently on this EXTREMELY IMPORTANT .PDF release from the CDC that contains:
However, patients who recover from the acute phase of the infection can still suffer long-term effects (8). Post-acute sequelae of COVID-19 (PASC), commonly referred to as “long COVID,” refers to the long-term symptoms, signs, and complications experienced by some patients who have recovered from the acute phase of COVID-19 (8–10). Emerging evidence suggests that severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the virus that causes COVID-19, can have lasting effects on nearly every organ and organ system of the body weeks, months, and potentially years after infection (11,12). Documented serious post-COVID-19 conditions include cardiovascular, pulmonary, neurological, renal, endocrine, hematological, and gastrointestinal complications (8), as well as death (13).It's under "Certifying deaths due to post-acute sequelae of COVID-19".
If you didn't catch/test +/deal with symptoms of COVID-19, DO NOT seek out to get infected with it.
If you caught COVID-19 once, DO NOT seek out catching it again.
And WEAR A MASK. Don't spread it!
🔴 -COVID-19 Immunology 101 for Non-immunologists by Dr. Akiko Iwasaki
🔴 -How the Immune System Works, beautifully illustrated by Kurzgesagt. (Seriously, Kurzgesagt is wonderful, go check it out.)
🔴 -The T-cells are Not Alright, an interview with Dr. Anthony Leonardi
🔴 -How SARS-CoV-2 Battles Our Immune System: Meet the protein arsenal wielded by the pandemic virus
🔴 -How to Build a Corsi-Rosenthal Box and then make them look snazzy!
🔴 -Safer, more cautious gatherings.
🔴 -MASK TYPE MATTERS with the latest Omicron Sars-CoV-2 mutations. Here is a chart comparing mask types, mutation type, and the time it takes in each to receive a problematic dose of Sars-CoV-2.
🔴 -A thread by Dr. Jeff Gilchrist explaining how high level respirators work, more mask comparisons, and answers to why we can still smell things even with high level respirators on.
Continue to have a great and safe spring season (and if you pray, pray for good rain!) 🌧🌧🌧🌧
2023.06.09 16:25 DoABarrowRoll Defending the Draft: New York Giants Edition (2023)
Hello to you, fellow ingrates.
Year 6 of DABR Defends the New York Giants from Criticism has arrived.
Giants fans didn't really expect to win that many games this year. There were still some hopefuls for Daniel Jones but most people had come to terms with new GM Joe Schoen and new HC Brian Daboll pretty much setting up to replace him, declining his 5th year option.
It was the first year of this regime, they hadn't really been able to fix up the roster fully, etc. Most Giants fans I know were expecting a 4-7 win season, not sniffing the playoff race. Ha.
It all started week 1 vs Tennessee. It was honestly a story Giants fans have gotten familiar with. Look absolutely horrible in the first half of the game, but somehow struggle back into it in the second half, only to be dramatically disappointed at the end of the game. After Daniel Jones threw a red zone interception with just under 9 minutes to go, we thought that was pretty much it.
But then with 4 minutes left, Saquon Barkley rips off a 33 yard run, Daniel Jones converts a 4th and 1, and the Giants score a TD to pull them to just a 1 point deficit. Most Giants fans are thinking "okay he's gonna kick it, play for overtime, I respect that, we didn't think it would be that close anyways."
And then we see the offense staying on the field...uh oh. The offense wasn't exactly clicking on all cylinders to that point in the game, having been shut out in the first half. If we don't get it, the game is pretty much lost. Daboll calls a shovel pass, Saquon gets it, it looks like it's completely doomed...I'm thinking "here we go again, his first game and the media is already going to be all over him for going for it"...but Saquon fights his way in! Giants take the lead for the first time in the game. We're feeling good, Daboll's huge balls in that situation giving us some confidence.
Then the Titans methodically work the ball down the field (along with a couple of assists from Austin Calitro and Darnay Holmes), setting up a 47 yard field goal for Randy Bullock to win the game.
Now, I'm thinking, "of course this is what happened, they gave us some hope, now it's going to get ripped away from us, just like always. Story of the last few years at times."
...and then Bullock missed the kick. That was the start of what turned into a magical first half of the season, the Giants getting off to a 7-2 start, all 7 wins coming by a 1 score margin (though the Bears and Texans games were a bit cleaner than the final scoreline suggests), and 5 of them really coming down to big time plays in the last 5 minutes of the game.
The Titans story, taking the lead with 3:38 left in the 4th quarter and Julian Love sacking Baker Mayfield to force 4th and 15 the next drive against Carolina, Kayvon Thibodeaux and Xavier McKinney batting down Aaron Rodgers' passes in London, Love intercepting Lamar Jackson to set up the game winning score against Baltimore, McKinney and Love stopping Christian Kirk at the 1 yard line on the last play against Jacksonville.
All of those games are games that go against us in previous years. But this year was just different. And somehow through it all, there were Saquon Barkley and Daniel Jones as well. Saquon was the focal point of the offense early in the season, Jones being efficient in a heavy, limited, play action focused passing attack.
All thoughts of the Giants earning a top pick and replacing Daniel Jones pretty much went out the window by week 4, and hope for Jones maybe finally becoming the QB he was drafted to be started to blossom in some parts of the Giants fanbase.
Things came crashing down a bit the next 4 weeks. Awful losses to Detroit, Dallas, and Philly, with a tie against Washington in there too that many Giants fans felt they deserved to win capped off a 1-4-1 stretch where the Giants simply did not look good. They looked more like what we expected the team to look like coming into the year. The playoff spot was no longer guaranteed, at 7-5-1. But a flexed SNF game against Washington would pretty much decide the season.
And the Giants took that win against Washington and ran with it. A close loss against the Vikings that was probably the best passing attack game of the season to that point, a dominating win against the hapless Colts that locked the Giants into the playoffs, and a surprisingly tight and scrappy game between the Eagles starters and the Giants backups gave Giants fans some hope headed into the playoffs. We didn't expect to win a Super Bowl, but the matchup against the Vikings seemed winnable.
And winnable it was, as in classic 2023 Giants fashion, they took a lead about halfway through the 4th quarter, and a couple of clutch plays on defense by Cordale Flott and Xavier McKinney ended the game.
Then we went to Philly and got absolutely ass blasted, ending our season.
That left the Giants with the 25th pick in the class, entering an offseason with a lot of business to take care of.
The first step in that process though was figuring out the status of his pending free agents; most notably, the two who led the way on offense most of the year: Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley. The Jones negotiations were tense, Jones asked for the moon and the team was not having it. Eventually (literally right before the tag deadline) they settled on a 4 yr, 160m extension with 82m fully guaranteed and a boatload of incentives that could push the value up to almost 200m. That allowed the team to tag Saquon Barkley, whose extension talks are reportedly still stalled, as Barkley declined an offer worth almost 14m during the Giants' bye week, and continues to find the Giants' offer(s) unpalatable.
Speculation is that Barkley is seeking more guaranteed money from the Giants (greater than the sum of 2 franchise tags), but Barkley's camp is not leaking much (reportedly because Saquon doesn't want them to). And according to most reporters, Saquon is too competitive to actually sit out the season, removing his last bit of leverage.
Possibly the biggest addition of the Giants' free agency period was actually a trade: The Giants traded the Chiefs' 3rd rounder (acquired for Kadarius Toney) for TE Darren Waller. This is a huge move because the Giants were dead last in explosive pass play rate by a WIDE margin. Only like 6 individual team seasons since 2010 had fewer explosive passing plays than the 2022 Giants. That's something that Schoen and Daboll immediately set out to fix, and Darren Waller is one of the best explosive pass weapons in the league, leading all TEs in explosive pass plays this season despite playing just 9 games this year. Reports out of OTAs are that the Giants are expecting Waller to basically fill a "WR1" role for them; not necessarily in alignment but being the focal point of the offense, high target share, etc.
Schoen and Daboll followed that addition up with two more explosive pass play options: retaining Darius Slayton, and adding Parris Campbell to the room. Slayton is a solid WR, he's good for 600-700 yards when he gets run. His hands are inconsistent, but he makes up for it often. Campbell finally broke out having a healthy season for the Colts this season. I think Campbell is mostly insurance for Wan'Dale Robinson, who is coming off of a torn ACL, but if healthy should get primary run in the slot.
The Giants' other two main moves came on the defensive side of the ball, adding LB Bobby Okereke to a LB room that comprised of: Jarrad Davis, Micah McFadden, and Darrian Beavers (coming off a torn ACL). Much needed improvement in that room. The Giants also added Rakeen Nunez-Roches and A'Shawn Robinson to the DL room to improve the depth there; Dexter Lawrence and Leonard Williams were playing too many snaps, and the Giants were really bad against the run last year.
In the process though, the Giants lost both of their starting centers from 2022, Nick Gates and Jon Feliciano, as well as S Julian Love, who had been a consistent staple of the defense the last few years.
And it's pretty similar to last year:
submitted by DoABarrowRoll to NFL_Draft [link] [comments]
Year 6 of DABR Defends the New York Giants from Criticism has arrived.
Season Recap
tl;dr: The Giants had their most successful season since 2016, and arguably since winning the Super Bowl in 2012 (if the draft spot/playoff success is the measurement) and went into draft night with the latest selection they've had since 2012, the first outside the top 11 since 2016.Giants fans didn't really expect to win that many games this year. There were still some hopefuls for Daniel Jones but most people had come to terms with new GM Joe Schoen and new HC Brian Daboll pretty much setting up to replace him, declining his 5th year option.
It was the first year of this regime, they hadn't really been able to fix up the roster fully, etc. Most Giants fans I know were expecting a 4-7 win season, not sniffing the playoff race. Ha.
It all started week 1 vs Tennessee. It was honestly a story Giants fans have gotten familiar with. Look absolutely horrible in the first half of the game, but somehow struggle back into it in the second half, only to be dramatically disappointed at the end of the game. After Daniel Jones threw a red zone interception with just under 9 minutes to go, we thought that was pretty much it.
But then with 4 minutes left, Saquon Barkley rips off a 33 yard run, Daniel Jones converts a 4th and 1, and the Giants score a TD to pull them to just a 1 point deficit. Most Giants fans are thinking "okay he's gonna kick it, play for overtime, I respect that, we didn't think it would be that close anyways."
And then we see the offense staying on the field...uh oh. The offense wasn't exactly clicking on all cylinders to that point in the game, having been shut out in the first half. If we don't get it, the game is pretty much lost. Daboll calls a shovel pass, Saquon gets it, it looks like it's completely doomed...I'm thinking "here we go again, his first game and the media is already going to be all over him for going for it"...but Saquon fights his way in! Giants take the lead for the first time in the game. We're feeling good, Daboll's huge balls in that situation giving us some confidence.
Then the Titans methodically work the ball down the field (along with a couple of assists from Austin Calitro and Darnay Holmes), setting up a 47 yard field goal for Randy Bullock to win the game.
Now, I'm thinking, "of course this is what happened, they gave us some hope, now it's going to get ripped away from us, just like always. Story of the last few years at times."
...and then Bullock missed the kick. That was the start of what turned into a magical first half of the season, the Giants getting off to a 7-2 start, all 7 wins coming by a 1 score margin (though the Bears and Texans games were a bit cleaner than the final scoreline suggests), and 5 of them really coming down to big time plays in the last 5 minutes of the game.
The Titans story, taking the lead with 3:38 left in the 4th quarter and Julian Love sacking Baker Mayfield to force 4th and 15 the next drive against Carolina, Kayvon Thibodeaux and Xavier McKinney batting down Aaron Rodgers' passes in London, Love intercepting Lamar Jackson to set up the game winning score against Baltimore, McKinney and Love stopping Christian Kirk at the 1 yard line on the last play against Jacksonville.
All of those games are games that go against us in previous years. But this year was just different. And somehow through it all, there were Saquon Barkley and Daniel Jones as well. Saquon was the focal point of the offense early in the season, Jones being efficient in a heavy, limited, play action focused passing attack.
All thoughts of the Giants earning a top pick and replacing Daniel Jones pretty much went out the window by week 4, and hope for Jones maybe finally becoming the QB he was drafted to be started to blossom in some parts of the Giants fanbase.
Things came crashing down a bit the next 4 weeks. Awful losses to Detroit, Dallas, and Philly, with a tie against Washington in there too that many Giants fans felt they deserved to win capped off a 1-4-1 stretch where the Giants simply did not look good. They looked more like what we expected the team to look like coming into the year. The playoff spot was no longer guaranteed, at 7-5-1. But a flexed SNF game against Washington would pretty much decide the season.
And the Giants took that win against Washington and ran with it. A close loss against the Vikings that was probably the best passing attack game of the season to that point, a dominating win against the hapless Colts that locked the Giants into the playoffs, and a surprisingly tight and scrappy game between the Eagles starters and the Giants backups gave Giants fans some hope headed into the playoffs. We didn't expect to win a Super Bowl, but the matchup against the Vikings seemed winnable.
And winnable it was, as in classic 2023 Giants fashion, they took a lead about halfway through the 4th quarter, and a couple of clutch plays on defense by Cordale Flott and Xavier McKinney ended the game.
Then we went to Philly and got absolutely ass blasted, ending our season.
That left the Giants with the 25th pick in the class, entering an offseason with a lot of business to take care of.
Free Agency Recap
The Giants had a lot more room to operate in free agency this year than last year, and Schoen was relatively creative in how he wanted to go about it.The first step in that process though was figuring out the status of his pending free agents; most notably, the two who led the way on offense most of the year: Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley. The Jones negotiations were tense, Jones asked for the moon and the team was not having it. Eventually (literally right before the tag deadline) they settled on a 4 yr, 160m extension with 82m fully guaranteed and a boatload of incentives that could push the value up to almost 200m. That allowed the team to tag Saquon Barkley, whose extension talks are reportedly still stalled, as Barkley declined an offer worth almost 14m during the Giants' bye week, and continues to find the Giants' offer(s) unpalatable.
Speculation is that Barkley is seeking more guaranteed money from the Giants (greater than the sum of 2 franchise tags), but Barkley's camp is not leaking much (reportedly because Saquon doesn't want them to). And according to most reporters, Saquon is too competitive to actually sit out the season, removing his last bit of leverage.
Possibly the biggest addition of the Giants' free agency period was actually a trade: The Giants traded the Chiefs' 3rd rounder (acquired for Kadarius Toney) for TE Darren Waller. This is a huge move because the Giants were dead last in explosive pass play rate by a WIDE margin. Only like 6 individual team seasons since 2010 had fewer explosive passing plays than the 2022 Giants. That's something that Schoen and Daboll immediately set out to fix, and Darren Waller is one of the best explosive pass weapons in the league, leading all TEs in explosive pass plays this season despite playing just 9 games this year. Reports out of OTAs are that the Giants are expecting Waller to basically fill a "WR1" role for them; not necessarily in alignment but being the focal point of the offense, high target share, etc.
Schoen and Daboll followed that addition up with two more explosive pass play options: retaining Darius Slayton, and adding Parris Campbell to the room. Slayton is a solid WR, he's good for 600-700 yards when he gets run. His hands are inconsistent, but he makes up for it often. Campbell finally broke out having a healthy season for the Colts this season. I think Campbell is mostly insurance for Wan'Dale Robinson, who is coming off of a torn ACL, but if healthy should get primary run in the slot.
The Giants' other two main moves came on the defensive side of the ball, adding LB Bobby Okereke to a LB room that comprised of: Jarrad Davis, Micah McFadden, and Darrian Beavers (coming off a torn ACL). Much needed improvement in that room. The Giants also added Rakeen Nunez-Roches and A'Shawn Robinson to the DL room to improve the depth there; Dexter Lawrence and Leonard Williams were playing too many snaps, and the Giants were really bad against the run last year.
In the process though, the Giants lost both of their starting centers from 2022, Nick Gates and Jon Feliciano, as well as S Julian Love, who had been a consistent staple of the defense the last few years.
Draft Needs
The Giants roster was in much better shape this year than last year, but the team still had a number of problems:- CB was still a HUGE need for the Giants, and one that had not been properly addressed yet. Adoree' Jackson had another very good year in 2022, but the spot across from him had been a mishmosh of misfit toys: Fabian Moreau had a nice little run, but struggled down the stretch. Nick McCloud got a lot of run at CB2 after being claimed on waivers from the Bills. Cordale Flott had been drafted as a nickel defender but got some run there. And the slot position wasn't much better, as Darnay Holmes continued to be a liability there. This position needed reinforcements. I've been a relatively vocal minority in the Giants fandom saying this has been the BIGGEST need the team had for a couple of years now (basically aside from the one year that we had Bradberry and Jackson both on the team).
- Despite adding Slayton, Campbell, and Waller, WR was still something the team needed. Specifically someone who could develop into a WR1 type player. The Giants WR room is relatively deep, but just adding Campbell and Waller and running back last year's group didn't feel sufficient. The team clearly was putting an emphasis on speed, separation, and yards after the catch ability.
- Center was a massive need. The Giants basically didn't have a center on the roster who had played meaningful NFL snaps. Ben Bredeson could move to center if needed, but it wasn't that solid of a plan. And in what seemed like a good center class, this seemed like a good way to solve that problem.
- LB. The LB2 spot currently will be either Jarrad Davis, Micah McFadden (who basically lost the job last year to Jarrad Davis), or Darrian Beavers (who tore his ACL last year). I think that says it all.
- RB: Saquon is on the tag, so you feel okay here, but the team has been seeking a solid compliment for him for a while. They were in on a few of the RBs last year and the value never lined up, and Matt Breida and Gary Brightwell didn't really cut it last year. They don't want to run Saquon into the ground early in the year like they did last year, so having a compliment for him is big.
- S: Losing Julian Love is a tough one. He played a lot of snaps and wore a lot of hats for this defense last year, especially with McKinney missing time with a hand injury. The team likes Jason Pinnock, and drafted Dane Belton in the early 4th last year, but more depth and competition here would be very welcome.
1.24: Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland
Seems like maybe Schoen agreed with me!
It was a lot harder to try to predict what the Giants would do this year, just by virtue of having a later pick. But the general consensus among the beat seemed to be that the team wanted to get a CB or an offensive playmaker with that first pick. I was a little skeptical of CB being an option, seeing how many mocks had all 5 of the top CBs off the board, but that often left WRs available.
So right after the Jets took Will McDonald at 15, if you looked at the board, only 1 CB had been taken and no WRs had been taken. That felt pretty good for the Giants.
Then Forbes and Gonzalez come off the board, and the top 4 WRs come off the board from 20-23.
That left the Giants feeling a little antsy. They had one guy they really wanted left, and negotiated a trade up one spot with the Jaguars to secure their guy: Deonte Banks.
This pick is perfect for what the Giants want to do on defense. Wink Martindale's reaction should say it all, if you go watch the Giants' behind the scenes videos on the draft process.
Banks is a tall, long, and athletic corner, which are all important traits for Wink's press man heavy defense. He's super fluid and smooth in his hips. He tested absolutely crazy. He also plays with a swag that I think Wink and Giants fans will come to really appreciate. He plays confident, he plays fast in terms of processing, and he plays physical.
He still has some development to go, I'm not saying he's going to be a top CB in the league from day 1. He wasn't a super ball productive corner, but that's not something Wink necessarily needs. It will take some time for him to get comfortable with the complexity of route runners in the NFL. But the tools are all there, and the Giants get a perfect scheme fit.
Banks will come in and immediately be the starter at CB across from Adoree' Jackson, and the trickle down effect that will have on the Giants depth chart at CB will be tangible.
2.57: John Michael Schmitz, OC, Minnesota
As this pick was coming up, Schoen and Daboll were discussing who to pick, and basically said "okay we're either going with Schmitz or(we'll get to that later ;) )".
Then the Bears traded up to the pick before the Giants pick. And Joe Schoen said "oh fuck." Daboll tried to calm him down and said "well I guess we're getting."
Then the Bears took Tyrique Stevenson (good pick!), leaving the Giants the choice between the two players. And the Giants went with Schmitz.
Full disclosure: I was not a huge JMS fan in the draft process. I thought he was super solid all around, but he wasn't really impressive to me, there weren't a lot of overwhelmingly positive reps or traits in my eyes. I thought he was maybe a little heavy footed, especially in pass pro, and his testing kind of backed that up, and I didn't really see full unlocked power either.
I was probably a bit harsh on him in terms of the grade though. Like I said, he's a super solid player. There's relatively little to really complain about. He's smart, he's experienced, and he made few mental mistakes. His snaps were consistent. He is pretty strong though not crazy so. His anchor is really good, and he plays nasty and competitive, which is something the Giants are definitely looking for. It helps he had a really good Senior Bowl week too.
Was Schmitz my favorite center in this class? No. But he was for many people, and for some good reasons. Schmitz will come in and immediately start at center for the Giants, bringing the dead snap with him. If he can be the 3rd best player on this unit (behind Andrew Thomas and hopefully Evan Neal taking a step forward this year and being healthy), it'll be an immensely calming and steadying presence that should raise the OL play of the whole unit.
3.73: Jalin Hyatt, WR, Tennessee
So you may be wondering: Who was Player X?So the Giants come out of the first 3 rounds with 3 players who were commonly mocked to them at 25. Pretty good business! But let's get into day 3:
Well immediately after drafting Schmitz, Schoen looked around the room and pretty much said "what if we can still get?" He decided that the price he was willing to pay was the Giants 4th round pick. And he and everybody else in the room started calling.
That included Brian Daboll, who leaned over and said "hey should I text [Rams HC Sean] McVay?" Schoen said "yeah sure go for it." And Daboll officially negotiated the Giants trading up from 89 to 73 to select Player X: Tennessee WR Jalin Hyatt
Hyatt is a really fun player to watch. The speed blows you away on tape. It's the kind of speed that even if you're not throwing it to him all the time, defenses have to take note when he comes on the field and play him differently. He's not necessarily slippery or elusive after the catch but (and I'm scared to frame it this way but I'm doing it anyway) the speed and acceleration gives him credibility there, the way that Odell was such a YAC threat on slants just getting to full speed and outrunning everyone.
He's a little high cut I think, and that leads to a little bit of trouble with crisper routes. He wasn't asked to run a very complex route tree at Tennessee, though I do think he has the skills to improve in that sense. The biggest concern for me is just how quickly we can get him up to speed beating press and playing through physicality. When he has room to work, he can beat CBs in a few ways, but NFL DBs will knock even very good WRs off their routes at times. And that follows through to contested catches.
The Giants' WR room is so crowded it's hard for me to say exactly what Hyatt's role will be starting out. The Giants started last year trying to use different WRs in different ways on a game to game basis. Then the wheels fell off obviously, with Shep, Wan'Dale, and Toney being hurt and Golladay stinking and all that. So I wonder if we see a return to that.
Hyatt can be a threat in a lot of ways, end arounds, screens, etc in addition to the obvious "go long" situations. Just how many reps he can carve out will be fun to track in training camp.
5.172: Eric Gray, RB, Oklahoma
The Giants traded away their 4th round pick to get Hyatt so they went 99 picks without making a selection.
Like I said earlier, the team has been looking for a compliment to Saquon Barkley for a long time, and they find it here with Eric Gray.
Schoen said he sees Eric Gray as a 3 down back. And you can definitely see why. He caught 88 passes over the last 3 years at Oklahoma and only dropped 2. He's also strong and physical, willing to pass protect. That physicality carries over into his running style, he runs hard and is willing to run through guys. He's bursty in short areas and has pretty solid vision in my opinion.
He's a compact guy, just 5'9 207. He's not super slippery or elusive, and he's not really a home run hitter. But in terms of finding a backup RB on day 3 to feed some of those tough yardage carries to and keep Saquon fresh, you could do worse than Eric Gray for sure.
The Giants ran a fair bit of "Pony" type formations in 2022, using 2 or even 3 RBs at times. The competition between Gray and Matt Breida for the true RB2 spot will be fun to see. Breida brings a little more explosiveness to the table, but Gray will certainly give him a run for his money. And depending on what happens with Saquon Barkley's contract situation, we may see even more of Gray down the line.
6.209: Tre Hawkins, CB, Old Dominion
When asked about what is different this year from last year, what improvements or what has gotten easier now that he's been in the chair for a full year, Joe Schoen talked a lot about really getting a good handle on what his coaches look for in players. And he singled out Wink in that respect because him and Daboll have worked together so much.
The Giants selection of Tre Hawkins really highlights that. Like with Deonte Banks, Hawkins brings a ton of physical traits. He tested through the roof. He has the length that the Giants look for. He's also super physical in both phases, run and pass, which Wink loves. ODU let him just play press man, so he's comfortable doing that.
He's a little slim still, so his frame needs some reworking, but that's common with CBs and especially ones from outside the P5 schools. He also has a lot of technique and FBIQ stuff to clean up. His footwork is messy, he's not always patient enough with his punch. His ball skills still leave something to be desired. He's still learning to read routes and manage space both in man and zone.
I figure Hawkins will come in and be a depth player and core STer for the Giants. If his play strength holds up against NFL scrutiny, he can definitely be a day 1 punt gunner. Wink has started calling Jerome Henderson the best DB coach in the league, so it'll be fun to see what Henderson can do with a ball of clay like Hawkins. Even if he ends up just being a STer and CB5 type guy, that's still a pretty good pick in the 6th round like this.
Also, sorry Patriots writer :)
7.243: Jordon Riley, DL, Oregon
Beating a dead horse at this point, but this is another pick Schoen highlighted as an example of his understanding of what Wink is looking for.
Obviously Riley is a flawed prospect, it's the 7th round. He was a 6th year senior who spent time at 4 different schools, starting at UNC, then going to JUCO for a year, then Nebraska for 2 years where he barely played, and finishing his college career at Oregon. PFF lists him as having just 534 career snaps in college despite the 5 years he spent at the P5 level. He wasn't very productive, partly because he barely played and partly because he's just not very good. He's not a good athlete.
What Riley does have, though, is size, strength, and knockback power. And that's what Wink is looking for in a depth NT. He eats blocks, stuffs up lanes, and just is hard to move.
Schoen put it this way:
"It’s hard to find these guys. When you get into the seventh round, you are looking for guys that maybe it will be hard to get at different areas. And another guy we spent time with, big run stopper in there, 6-foot-5, 330.
You walk out to practice, and there’s this 6-5, 330-pound guy, who piques your interest right there. Again, some of these guys in different schemes may not have the production, the tackles, the sacks. But for what Wink looks for in terms of size, length, knock-back — he possesses those traits.”
7.254: Gervarrius Owens, DB, Houston
Last pick in the draft and the Giants go back to the DB room. They took two CBs already, but some depth/developmental guys at safety would help. Enter: Gervarrius Owens.
Owens is a former CB turned S from Houston. The CB in him flashes to me on tape, I thought his ball skills as a safety were good. He's athletic enough to play pretty much any safety spot, including that single high spot that teams find difficult to fill. He's super physical and willing to play downhill and tackle. He's super experienced, he was a team captain and 4 year starter for Houston.
He makes a lot of mistakes, however. The angles he takes to the ball in both phases are super inconsistent. He missed a ton of tackles in college, so that technique needs to be worked on. The ball skills turned into PBUs rather than INTs; Wink won't mind that but some of them were like "he really should have just caught that."
Owens is another guy like Hawkins who looks primed to earn his roster spot on special teams and provide solid depth for the team's DB room. Wink likes to play 3+ safety sets, especially when he feels like he has a good group there. And the Giants' S room right now is basically Xavier McKinney and a bunch of question marks, so it's entirely feasible that Owens can come in and beat Dane Belton, Jason Pinnock, and Bobby McCain to earn playing time early on.
UDFAs
The Giants UDFA class included a few notable names. 5 total players who got 100k+ in guarantees:- Bryce Ford-Wheaton, WR, WVU: The Giants gave Bryce Ford-Wheaton a LOT of guaranteed money for a UDFA: 236k, which is the full season PS salary plus 20k. BFW was one of "my guys" this year I was hoping for the Giants to get. He's got the size and athleticism to be really good, but he's a little one note right now. In a crowded WR room, I kind of doubt he'll make the roster without some injuries (or Wan'Dale/Shep being on PUP) but like other late rounders/UDFAs, if he can find some value on special teams, he's a fun upside swing.
- Dyontae Johnson, LB, Toledo: Another guy who got a lot of guaranteed money. The Giants needed some reinforcements at LB and clearly didn't find them in the draft. Super productive in college, very instinctive player, but I'm not sure if he can run with the league. He'll compete with the Giants mishmosh of LBs to play on special teams.
- Ryan Jones, TE/FB, East Carolina: The Giants have been searching for a kind of H-Back type for a while now. Last year they brought in Jeremiah Hall from Oklahoma, that didn't stick. Andre Miller, who was a WR at Maine, seemed like he was getting run at that spot in camp last year, but a broken arm ended his season. Chris Myarick ended up taking some of those reps. Ryan Jones kind of fits that mold as well.
- Habakkuk Baldonado, EDGE, Pittsburgh: The Giants' pass rusher depth is...not great. Behind Kayvon Thibodeaux and Azeez Ojulari, it's Jihad Ward, Oshane Ximines, and Tomon Fox. And Ojulari missed a lot of time last year. Baldonado could potentially come in and earn a spot over Ximines/Fox. He's got good play strength and power and fits what the Giants would need as more of an edge setter and run defender to give Thibodeaux/Ojulari a rest rep before letting them loose to rush the passer.
- Gemon Green, CB, Michigan: Another tough and physical corner. I don't think there's really a spot for him on this roster with the additions of Banks and Hawkins, and I think he's not quite the athlete the Giants look for at CB, but as a last resort/STer he can potentially get somewhere.
Final Takeaways
I did this last year because it was Schoen's first year here, but I like the idea of doing it every year. What can we learn from the way Schoen drafted this year that we can file away and learn for the future? What can mockers learn from this to inform them of who makes sense for the Giants.And it's pretty similar to last year:
- Athleticism. Once again, pretty much every player the Giants drafted, and the UDFAs generally, were excellent athletes who tested well. The main exceptions being JMS (who was still a solid athlete) and Jordon Riley this year; where the exception last year basically was just DJ Davidson. This team has faith in its coaching staff and wants to give them players they can work with.
- Scheme/Roster Fits. I talked about it a lot with the defensive picks, but every single one is a "Wink Martindale" guy. What does Wink want for his system? This can be a little dangerous considering Wink was in the running for a HC gig last year, and another strong year might finally get him the HC job he has been looking for. If he leaves and the scheme changes, these players need to be able to match the new scheme too. But it's clear that the FO values the input of the coaching staff and there's really clear communication there. This also applies to the offensive side of the ball, where it's super clear that the team wanted more speed on offense, which pointed to Hyatt a little bit.
- Youth. This one is a little less applicable this year as they did draft a few older players, like JMS and Riley, even Eric Gray who turns 24 in November or Tre Hawkins who turns 23 over the summer. But Banks just turned 22, Jalin Hyatt will turn 22 in late September. It feels like maybe they felt more attached to the age stuff when they thought this was a full on rebuild, but now that they're hoping to be a playoff team again, they need some more instant contributors.
- Aggressiveness/willingness to trade. This is a newer one, as last year the Giants only traded back. But this year the Giants traded up twice, giving up 3 day 3 picks in the process. Schoen is not afraid to make trades in either direction. Up to secure guys he really wants (Banks/Hyatt), or down if there's nothing there. Schoen talked about having trades lined up in both directions with the first round pick, he had a trade down ready if there was no one he wanted left.
2023.06.09 14:45 GoStockGo Cutting-Edge AI for Mining Explorations: Windfall Geotek (TSXV: WIN, OTC: WINKF)
Windfall Geotek (TSXV: WIN, OTC: WINKF) uses AI for mining explorations. Doing this has several advantages, as it notably reduces costs and increases efficiency, and ultimately raises the company exploration success rate. Windfall also improved its financial statements by reducing expenses and augmenting its revenue.
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WIN is not a mining company. It is a cutting-edge AI mining service that identifies drill targets, saving time and money and vastly reducing exploratory drilling. It was established in 2005.
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Windfall Geotek’s AI technology analyzes geological data from various target sources to generate the highest probable drill targets. Its technology works for all metals. The company takes geological data from multiple sources, including drill holes and rock samples, publicly available sources, and others, to build models that can accurately predict where a particular metal or group of metals is likely to be found.
WIN’s value proposition? Instead of mining companies and engineers ‘guessing’ where to drill, Windfall’s AI technology uses machine learning to process large quantities of data to predict zones with the desired mineralization. The benefits are apparent, and the Company has put it in a very strong financial position.
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WIN’s formative technology can be illustrated by delving into the Chapais area in Quebec.
Dinesh Kandanchatha, Chairman of Windfall Geotek, commented: “We are excited to partner with the team at Quebec Copper & Gold. Windfall Geotek intends to play a key part through our AI to help the project succeed.” Highlights of the Chapais Property: Large property with 36 claims and 1,560 hectares located 490 km northwest of Montreal. Road accessible with power grid access.”
Windfall Geotek AI system has generated significant gold, copper, and zinc targets across the entire land package.
The Chapais property was sold to Quebec Copper and Gold for 500,000 shares & issuing a 2% NSR subject to a 1% buyback. Windfall Geotek will take all available data and conduct a large-scale AI targeting project over both Opemiska & Chapais Project, which will then be owned by Quebec Copper & Gold.
Nathan Tribble P.Geo, WIN Director, commented: “The Chapais Property is well situated in a prolific region that has produced over 1 billion pounds of copper and 1 million ounces of gold. It’s exciting to see the large AI-generated targets within favorable rock types that were host to the historic Perry and Springer mines adjacent to our land package. During this new supercycle of electrification metals this is a fabulous project that should gain a lot of attention here in short order.”
This story has legs. The ability to save money, time, and resources makes mineral exploration exceptionally cost-effective, raising profits while cutting costs. Logic dictates areas that might have been too expensive to do traditional discovery tests and processes are open.
It doesn’t get much more complicated. The advantage comes as Windfall Geotek advances its scope of business and leverages the ongoing development of its technology.
submitted by GoStockGo to OTCstocks [link] [comments]
https://preview.redd.it/up0qtz32nz4b1.png?width=258&format=png&auto=webp&s=aa3b3e6348bd21493773e2706b77ade02081cf21
WIN is not a mining company. It is a cutting-edge AI mining service that identifies drill targets, saving time and money and vastly reducing exploratory drilling. It was established in 2005.
https://preview.redd.it/8pdykcx5nz4b1.png?width=1677&format=png&auto=webp&s=8323c4e8cd61df53fc1ac171b781a1e9669c0381
Windfall Geotek’s AI technology analyzes geological data from various target sources to generate the highest probable drill targets. Its technology works for all metals. The company takes geological data from multiple sources, including drill holes and rock samples, publicly available sources, and others, to build models that can accurately predict where a particular metal or group of metals is likely to be found.
WIN’s value proposition? Instead of mining companies and engineers ‘guessing’ where to drill, Windfall’s AI technology uses machine learning to process large quantities of data to predict zones with the desired mineralization. The benefits are apparent, and the Company has put it in a very strong financial position.
- $1.2M in cash and $2.47M in total assets with no debt
- Windfall holds several marketable securities worth $871k.
- Its most significant ownership stake is in Puma Exploration, worth $228k for 1.2M shares, and Power Nickel representing $210k for 1.4M shares.
- The company issued 133.6M shares, 8.26M options (avg. price: $0.10) and 19.6M warrants (avg. price: $0.25).
- The company has no current plans to exercise either option or warrants.
https://preview.redd.it/q76pcze9nz4b1.jpg?width=640&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d58932ca2302257bbf6c403d1f58022170ebe5fd
https://preview.redd.it/xzrflz5anz4b1.png?width=1500&format=png&auto=webp&s=4e7058e5f7bb25b5c2fef1cbdec0bfedf23e4168
WIN’s formative technology can be illustrated by delving into the Chapais area in Quebec.
Dinesh Kandanchatha, Chairman of Windfall Geotek, commented: “We are excited to partner with the team at Quebec Copper & Gold. Windfall Geotek intends to play a key part through our AI to help the project succeed.” Highlights of the Chapais Property: Large property with 36 claims and 1,560 hectares located 490 km northwest of Montreal. Road accessible with power grid access.”
Windfall Geotek AI system has generated significant gold, copper, and zinc targets across the entire land package.
The Chapais property was sold to Quebec Copper and Gold for 500,000 shares & issuing a 2% NSR subject to a 1% buyback. Windfall Geotek will take all available data and conduct a large-scale AI targeting project over both Opemiska & Chapais Project, which will then be owned by Quebec Copper & Gold.
Nathan Tribble P.Geo, WIN Director, commented: “The Chapais Property is well situated in a prolific region that has produced over 1 billion pounds of copper and 1 million ounces of gold. It’s exciting to see the large AI-generated targets within favorable rock types that were host to the historic Perry and Springer mines adjacent to our land package. During this new supercycle of electrification metals this is a fabulous project that should gain a lot of attention here in short order.”
- A detailed and informative discussion of the AI Mining Process is here.
- The market for AI services in the mining industry is forecast to be worth US$240 million by 2024, up from US$76 million in 2019, according to GlobalData. So, how should investors position themselves? 66% of mining companies are using AI in 2022, up from 57% in 2021, according to the latest survey from Axora.
- Windfall has identified gold, copper, and zinc targets. The use of drones also enhances methods.
- WIN’s EagleEye Drones will begin tests in the mining sector with the acquisition and analysis of survey data. The company plans to partner with operators of leading surveying companies to obtain geophysical data and generate potential drill targets using drones, modified sensors, and the CARDS AI software system.
This story has legs. The ability to save money, time, and resources makes mineral exploration exceptionally cost-effective, raising profits while cutting costs. Logic dictates areas that might have been too expensive to do traditional discovery tests and processes are open.
It doesn’t get much more complicated. The advantage comes as Windfall Geotek advances its scope of business and leverages the ongoing development of its technology.
2023.06.09 14:45 GoStockGo Cutting-Edge AI for Mining Explorations: Windfall Geotek (TSXV: WIN, OTC: WINKF)
 | Windfall Geotek (TSXV: WIN, OTC: WINKF) uses AI for mining explorations. Doing this has several advantages, as it notably reduces costs and increases efficiency, and ultimately raises the company exploration success rate. Windfall also improved its financial statements by reducing expenses and augmenting its revenue. submitted by GoStockGo to SmallCapStocks [link] [comments] https://preview.redd.it/45y8wdr3nz4b1.png?width=258&format=png&auto=webp&s=1787758f56ba4ecc3f3cc8ed84507bf699900b80 WIN is not a mining company. It is a cutting-edge AI mining service that identifies drill targets, saving time and money and vastly reducing exploratory drilling. It was established in 2005. https://preview.redd.it/bekxxuz6nz4b1.png?width=1677&format=png&auto=webp&s=5f49311db4c7cf41a47554ac7c08d4e2e24dbe1d Windfall Geotek’s AI technology analyzes geological data from various target sources to generate the highest probable drill targets. Its technology works for all metals. The company takes geological data from multiple sources, including drill holes and rock samples, publicly available sources, and others, to build models that can accurately predict where a particular metal or group of metals is likely to be found. WIN’s value proposition? Instead of mining companies and engineers ‘guessing’ where to drill, Windfall’s AI technology uses machine learning to process large quantities of data to predict zones with the desired mineralization. The benefits are apparent, and the Company has put it in a very strong financial position.
https://preview.redd.it/sithenvbnz4b1.jpg?width=640&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=fab6c3ff35fc4fdd43ae8747219df25d2711f9fd https://preview.redd.it/5l15ufhcnz4b1.png?width=1500&format=png&auto=webp&s=7ba2e0a8a7c01e753dc7a7ad9920b683b65cc7c1 WIN’s formative technology can be illustrated by delving into the Chapais area in Quebec. Dinesh Kandanchatha, Chairman of Windfall Geotek, commented: “We are excited to partner with the team at Quebec Copper & Gold. Windfall Geotek intends to play a key part through our AI to help the project succeed.” Highlights of the Chapais Property: Large property with 36 claims and 1,560 hectares located 490 km northwest of Montreal. Road accessible with power grid access.” Windfall Geotek AI system has generated significant gold, copper, and zinc targets across the entire land package. The Chapais property was sold to Quebec Copper and Gold for 500,000 shares & issuing a 2% NSR subject to a 1% buyback. Windfall Geotek will take all available data and conduct a large-scale AI targeting project over both Opemiska & Chapais Project, which will then be owned by Quebec Copper & Gold. Nathan Tribble P.Geo, WIN Director, commented: “The Chapais Property is well situated in a prolific region that has produced over 1 billion pounds of copper and 1 million ounces of gold. It’s exciting to see the large AI-generated targets within favorable rock types that were host to the historic Perry and Springer mines adjacent to our land package. During this new supercycle of electrification metals this is a fabulous project that should gain a lot of attention here in short order.”
This story has legs. The ability to save money, time, and resources makes mineral exploration exceptionally cost-effective, raising profits while cutting costs. Logic dictates areas that might have been too expensive to do traditional discovery tests and processes are open. It doesn’t get much more complicated. The advantage comes as Windfall Geotek advances its scope of business and leverages the ongoing development of its technology. |
2023.06.09 14:27 chaotic-_-neutral desperately need help interpreting pattern instructions for the back panel of a front-open vest Paton's Country Gentleman knit flat
 | vest pattern submitted by chaotic-_-neutral to casualknitting [link] [comments] im knitting the large size (middle # in the brackets) for my grandfather. i try to read ahead and envision how id go about the steps before i actually get down to doing it, and im so confused about the armhole and shoulder shaping. i'll make this post about only the armhole shaping. ______________________________ I have knit up the first part of the instructions for the back panel - ive done the 1.5" long 2x2 ribbing (110 sts) plus the 1 st increase (111 sts), and then 14" of stockinette current dimensions : 111 sts across and 15.5" long https://preview.redd.it/5c2vsyvvay4b1.png?width=460&format=png&auto=webp&s=b5850d8de5592a410e3bbc845900a0724ffb3a3f https://preview.redd.it/58jiigvxby4b1.jpg?width=1793&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=aba89437bf00079e9528c59db160dca55c051b4a so now i have 111 sts on my needle and when i start to work them off the resting needle, i'll be making knit stitches. i need to get started with the armhole shaping. ______________________________ the next set of instructions for shaping the armhole arent intuitive to me. this is my understanding of it: https://preview.redd.it/mynrpk9ecy4b1.png?width=456&format=png&auto=webp&s=97f55d08211ce065a987a4fba6c3e3be199040e7 Step 1 [ 111 sts on the needle start work on RS ]
now after having cast off [ 8 + 8 = 16 sts ] from the [ 111 st total ], im left with [ 111 - 16 = 95 sts ] Step 2 [ 95 sts on the needle start work on the RS ]
95 sts - 81 sts = 14 decreases
Step 3 [ 81 sts on the needle start work on WS ]st #7 of Step 2 would land me on the WS of the work.
______________________________ back panel schematic:relevant measurements for the size im knitting (L), clockwise from the top:
______________________________ self drafted pattern charts: Chart 1:https://preview.redd.it/171wfyydjz4b1.png?width=2706&format=png&auto=webp&s=081ea125316077c50203cdde3f9ab52c4d6f551dive used the greyed out squares to help cross the long horizontal space
Chart 2:https://preview.redd.it/a55r5r36kz4b1.png?width=2486&format=png&auto=webp&s=9089f1445975b49c1f61247c2fbaa2e84e06cd3d
8 (R C.Off) + 8 (L C.Off) + 7 (R-Leaning dec) + 7 (L-Leaning dec) = 30 sts decreased |
2023.06.09 14:11 LinguoBuxo 🥂 Celebrating 8000 audiobooks 🎉 - 🎊 Reaching officially v. 1.0 - and some collection trivia
There are many public or private libraries in this world. And some of them are there to fill a purpose .. Libraries of study materials for a university ... Library of the US Congress ... Libraries of government records all over the world ... Libraries of vintage books (Aziraphale had one of those) and so on..
... Well the library I keep is -- To help people learn new languages (or ... keep 'em alive once learned)
To this end, the library has certain guiding rules.. One of them being that only authors that have had international success are included. Nobody else. Had we been collecting every audiobook that passed us by, we'd be at maybe 300.000 books by now, waist deep in hard drives.
And a weird point of fact is, the +-90 authors collected here, have written a sum total of 1600 books. Or at least that's the number of their recordings that can be found in English..
And so the 8.000 volumes milestone is a MAJOR one, because 1600 times 5 iiissss.. 8k! Yaaahooo!!!
---
So, some basic facts and figures about the collection / language school with books in it .-)
Some other facts, details and trivia
... That's long 'nuff for one post.. There will be more interesting stuff posted in a week maybe, drop by again for more interesting news from the AudioBux team.
:) Cheerio!
Notes:
\* - All the books we have, had been available on the Public Domain at one point or another - thus available to everybody during that timeframe, however brief it may have been
*\* - E-books are not our main focus, but we do keep some. There's one potential trouble tho. In a solid chunk of the languages we keep, we cannot keep tabs on... or even verify, if the version of the translation of that specific pdf IS actually the one that's been recorded in audio. Some books had gone quite a few version of translations for various reasons. And so we can have A copy of the e-book and An audiobook... If they match is sometimes anyone's guess.
**\* - ...but some of the recordings in these 206 are there twice .. for instance performances with full cast - so excluding those we have 193 books in 10 unique language versions
submitted by LinguoBuxo to u/LinguoBuxo [link] [comments]
... Well the library I keep is -- To help people learn new languages (or ... keep 'em alive once learned)
To this end, the library has certain guiding rules.. One of them being that only authors that have had international success are included. Nobody else. Had we been collecting every audiobook that passed us by, we'd be at maybe 300.000 books by now, waist deep in hard drives.
And a weird point of fact is, the +-90 authors collected here, have written a sum total of 1600 books. Or at least that's the number of their recordings that can be found in English..
And so the 8.000 volumes milestone is a MAJOR one, because 1600 times 5 iiissss.. 8k! Yaaahooo!!!
---
So, some basic facts and figures about the collection / language school with books in it .-)
- 8000 audiobooks kept \*
- Just over 90 authors collected exclusively
- Audiobooks in 71 languages available
- Some e-books also kept - presently over 2.700 PDFs in storage *\*
- Total listening time - Over 74.500 hours
- There's 16 authors, of which we have 100 or more recordings
- There's 18 tongues, in which we have 100 or more recordings
- In 15 tongues we have over 1.000 hours of listening time
- Russian is the second most "stuffed" language - over 700 mp3s - over 7950 hours
- The book with the most language versions we hold is: Exupéry's Le Petit Prince - 48 versions
- Apart from EN, the top 6 languages read as follows: RU, PO, DE, CS, SP, BPO
- The 5 authors of which we have the most recordings of are: Doyle's Holmes, Agatha Christie, Stephen King, Jules Verne and Sir Terry Pratchett, GNU.
- There's 206 book titles which we have in 10 or more recordings **\*
- There's 11 books which we have in 30+ language versions
- There's 5 books which we have in 40 or more tongues
- Among our top authors, as far as the language diversity goes are: Orwell, Christie, Doyle's Sherlock Holmes, Hemingway, Coelho, Napoleon Hill, Kiyosaki, Jules Verne and J.K.R.
- If one listed the world top languages by speakers, then in the top 20 languages by size, we hold a lump sum of 4.345 recordings.
- We have SOME audiobook title in a group of languages whose L1+L2 speakers number: 5.344 billion. EEeeeehhh. "Not great, not terrible."
- The most populous independent language we have jack shit in iiiiisss: Javanese - 68M speakers
- The most populous dialect we have eine große Scheiße in is Yue Chinese
Some other facts, details and trivia
- We have a webpage in development, it's having plumbers in right now.
- In the meantime, the main communication channels are either chat/dm here or email.
- Our strict policy is One Book One MP3 - even if the original book has been split into several volumes.. an example of this which spring to mind is Game of Thrones ... which for instance in FR had been dissected into 3 or more books and sold separately, to milk people. Well, we don't do that.
- Despite the fact that we have a strict rule about the authors we collect, we sometimes perform custom searches... such as "Metro 2033 in French?" for instance... but only on demand and ... it's not free. Decently priced, but not free.
- There are one or two authors we have searched for on demand, and decided to keep 'em afterwards, since they 1) write decent enough stuff but most importantly .. 2) since we found them in 5+ languages since. One of these authors, as an example, is Franz Kafka, writing originally in Deutsch, with his 4 major books... 2 of which we have in over 20 language variations. Decent.
- Then again, there are authors which we could have included in our library, because they have been famous internationally, but we flat out refused to, usually because their works are either boring as fuck, which would somewhat defeat the motivation behind this collection, or by the virtue of being too divisive in nature. Meaning some people love 'em, and some people wouldn't touch their stuff with a 30 foot barge pole. Some notable examples being.. for instance the whole stinkin' lot of philosophers, from Alzheimer, through Camus all the way to Schopenhauer and Marx. GTFO the lotta 'em. Or people like Cervantes, Schicklgruber, E.L. James, Stephenie Meyer, Anne Frank, or Danielle Steel, to name a few.
... That's long 'nuff for one post.. There will be more interesting stuff posted in a week maybe, drop by again for more interesting news from the AudioBux team.
:) Cheerio!
Notes:
\* - All the books we have, had been available on the Public Domain at one point or another - thus available to everybody during that timeframe, however brief it may have been
*\* - E-books are not our main focus, but we do keep some. There's one potential trouble tho. In a solid chunk of the languages we keep, we cannot keep tabs on... or even verify, if the version of the translation of that specific pdf IS actually the one that's been recorded in audio. Some books had gone quite a few version of translations for various reasons. And so we can have A copy of the e-book and An audiobook... If they match is sometimes anyone's guess.
**\* - ...but some of the recordings in these 206 are there twice .. for instance performances with full cast - so excluding those we have 193 books in 10 unique language versions